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July Challenge - Trip #1 Report

Trip Bankroll: 15 units
Trip Goal: +50
Pre-trip plan: Yes I've mentioned +25/trip, but I have a little more time on this trip (plan to play 5-6 hrs) so I'd like to push it. I do have a specific plan to achieve that Goal. I'll break it down into 3 mini sessions: +15, +20, and +15. I'm determined to play my A game (BS+MM) and see how far it'll take me.

Mini Session 1 (+15 Goal):
Started off with some .5 and 1 unit bets to have a "feel" for a half-way shoe. Preferred hands seems hitting, gained 3-4 units easily. There is an older man with a tall black chip stack (about 3-4k), his $700+ seems hitting well so I joined him on a few, got myself to +8. Shoe almost ended, I hopped on a nearby Dragon 7 table, lose some win some, then I hit a Dragon 7 for $5 (didn't want to do Side bet, was just protecting my $150 bet there). Four previous Dragon 7 have a Bank after, so I do a 5 units bet on Bank here. WON that. I'm at exactly +15 units.
Before the trip, I was telling myself to stop on these Mini sessions if I hit my goal, take a short Break and re-start. So I colored in, went back to the table with the older man. At this point it was the last few hands, out of nowhere I see him betting a few 800-1000 hands and lost consecutively. Feeling bad for him, he pretty much burned through his stack. He seems to care for the money, so that's even worse.
I cashed out. Decide to go to a nearby casino for Mini Session 2. Time spent here: 2 hrs.

Mini Session 2 (+20 Goal):
2nd casino. Walked in a table with big players, piles of black chips (7-8k each). No more seat so I stood and observed, after 1 huge hand lost (you guessed it, on Banker) two of them left to join another table. So I sat down. Liked a hand, bet 2 units, LOST. Next hand, like it too, bet 3 units, WON. At this point I noticed there was a Macau trend going on, about 7 consecutive hands already (mixing P & B). So I decided to hop on, 2-3 units each time, I won like 3 more. The other players noticed, and started to follow me (as they lost a few while I won), I raised my bet size to 6 units, won 2 more. That trend still went on... I was at +23 rather easily. Then lost 3 when the trend broke. I'm at exactly +20, my Goal. I played my A game all the way until this point. It took me a little less than 1 hr. Time to get the heck up, having a break to prepare for last Mini Session.
NO, I didn't. As I see the trend was so good, I decide to finish my last Session (+15 Goal) here as well. Mistake #1.
At this point, the shoe goes awkward, hard to have a read on. I lost back 5 units on a few small hands, then waited for awhile, then decided to do a 9 unit bet on a "looking good" preferred hand, LOST 5 to 7 I believed. At this point, all Red-flags went up. I knew deep down that the shoe has turned (about 60 hands already) and if I stayed, I'll lose all back. And yet, mistake #2, I didn't leave to reserve the few units won still on this shoe. Last few hands was "here, take it back" kind of mentality, I kind of lost it here for some reasons (not really on tilt, just RUSHED). And, as I've predicted, I lost all +20 units back, plus my 15 units buy-in here (A 35 unit swing, in less than 10 hands).
Overall: I'm back to my Trip Bankroll of 15 units.
I stopped for a bit, having lunch. A nice steak, but my mouth is still sour from what just happened. I kind of rushed through my lunch, knowing fully well I'll lost the remaining 15 units when I come back.

Mini Session 3 (Bankroll: 15 units, Goal: ?? I didn't even come in with one)
Lost 5 units in 2 hands, then a favorite preferred hand showed up, I decided to do all remaining 10 units. WON that one. A few hands later, a favorite hand showed up again, I do another 10 units. Squeezed out a Banker 9.... freaking Player has 9 too LOL. Next hand I took back 5 units, still kept Bank. WON that one, at ~25 units now. THEN, same problem with session 2, shoe changed, normally I'm pretty good at stopping when it is. This day, I'm NOT. I hung on, played a horrible part of the show, and LOST all.
Time: about 5 hrs including lunch.

It was a long drive back, not pleasant you could all tell. I just took a shower and write this report now...
Mixed feelings here: I'm not mad at losing my Trip Bankroll of 15 units. I'm just very unhappy with the 50 units swing (+35 to -15).
Even more so is that I've had some emotional distractions to begin the day, I've thought not to go play today as I go through my emotions.
Today is NOT my planned 5 trips of the month btw.
So my friends, as much as you think having a good strategy/system (BS) and MM can help you win, my above example is one of MANY ways we can lose to the casino.

Grade: F
Reason: Out of character. Shouldn't start the day, but managed to hit Goals on two Mini Sessions. Then lost all back, because I've lost myself. This, if happened again, will guarantee a LOST 100% of the time (as my history has showed it).
I'll take a break for a week, will come back next weekend if I'm in my right mind coming in.
July Overall Result: -15.

 

Thanks for the honesty and reality.

 

Good post, hard day at the office. This is the hardest thing you are going to go through as a trip player. You may leave the casino behind when you leave , you may leave some money behind when you leave. But you unfortunately can’t leave your head behind at the casino when you leave. The trip home is hard and the time between now and the next trip to the casino is when all the rabbit holes open up. Good time to practice mental discipline as you could totally undo all the good work you have been achieving of late.

You can do it.
Cheers

 

Totally agree. That's why I don't bring more bankroll (30+ units) anymore. The size of the bankroll doesn't affect my session results as much as how I play and self control as well. Before this year I've had many similar trips until I chose to go on a pro-longed Redemption period, which has helped correcting those "play hard to give Way Up, then lost back in a heart beat" events. Now 2 factors that I can really control are limiting the trips (5-6 per month) and Buy-In bankroll (10-20 units max/trip). So far I've had more winning trips than losing ones and that yielded a positive result. However, I can do even better if I can control these unnecessary rough trips (which should be smooth sailing, but I made it harder on myself by "losing it".) There will be days when I'll lose right from the beginning and having to play catch up to get back or lose it all. So I should account for those as well and not wasting these supposedly easy sailing trips.
My next trip the Goal will be to play my A game, and get off and leave (doesn't matter result then) when I started playing a loose game. A hard challenge but I'll be up for it. We'll see on my next report...

 

P2W. I dont want to be that guy.

But I noticed as you upped your exposure with more hands played + profit targets. You have started to succumb to more dramatic losses.

Which is my next point for the trip based players.

It's like pausing a movie the end results will be the same if you have no "edge". You'll just loss all across longer periods of time.

I would recommend some type of recovery mechanism to recoup losses. Because any BS is going to drum down to 50/50 you need a method to recover losses.

Or regress back to smaller goals. Where you statistically have a better hope to evade the various death patterns for whatever BS you are deploying just due to the exposure factor.


TLDR: playing too long -EV will kill you without a recovery plan.

 

Thanks Carlo, that’s exactly what I thought. Often time "forcing" an exact winning amount, or simply an "even/wholly" number can bring doom to us all. But I've really passed that stage. I've trained myself to be craving for playing right & therefore success.
Last trip, I'm not so much bothered by. Bottom line, that strip shouldn't even happened in the first place, which is another story.
But I totally agree with you, the lesser exposure time, the BETTER. So TRUE. (If you've read my whole thread, that's exactly what I went through last few losing years before turning it around this year).
Smaller goal? I can increase my Unit Size to achieve lesser Unit count, but same $ winning amount. Not a problem.
What I'm really afraid of, but now on top of, is I don't allow my whole Gambling Bankroll at risk at any given time.
Generally, all your points are SPOT ON.
I'm pretty honest so we'd see here in the next few trip reports, win or lose I don't have a problem reporting.
Now I'll be focus on maintaining an A game throughout a trip (cut short if needed to). The result will take care of itself.
Cheers,
P/S I've just handled the personal emotions that I've mentioned about. Should be back to my tip-top form come next Trip.
Overall gambling bankroll: 85 units (down from 100 units).

 

Sticking to a proven winning strategy will always outperform random or loose ways of wagering. Billy Walters case in point.

 

Hey Everyone,

Can some one please provide me with a link or a name to a online baccarat site that takes ETH, im looking for a new online gaming platform but most only take fiat.

Cheers

 

Quick update:
Two of my trips get cancelled.
Also with the Covid spiking up, plus the unsafe playing conditions at the casinos I’m going to... I’m even more uncomfortable now.
One more thing is, the current playing conditions are totally offset my preferred setting, which are:
1) More tables with many players: more flow to the game and I can choose which table I want to play on easily.
2) Patient, waiting for right moment: now I noticed I lose patient very quickly and just reverted into a quick “all and done” type of player, which is a complete disaster.

I guess waiting it out is the best for me right now.

 

Considering the conditions as outlined in your post it makes sense to wait ,

 

I would recommend defaulting back to less units a session especially with the rise of covid and if your at risk or around other who might be at risk. Just skip it all together right now.

Here in vegas we got plenty of safety measures in my eyes to warrant continued visits to the palazzo, Venetian.

They have over a dozen EVS walking around cleaning up right after being on a gaming station. Disinfectant dispensers across the casino floor and every other game shut down. Plexi glass on all the Table Games.

Anywho stay sane, stay safe.. Crazy World right now.

 

Good decision, Play2Win, and your best post in a while.

Upon perusal of your thread and, most importantly, your recent trip reports, I think that backing yourself off for a while is the wisest choice. I'm of the opinion that you're much too savvy of a Baccarat player to be getting caught up in some of the self-destructive moves that you've been making at the tables.

You know exactly what you WANT to do at the tables; but it appears that what you WANT to do is being much too over-shadowed by some of your recent recklessness at the tables. Please pardon my indulgence as I offer you this as a viable corrective measure against your recent maladies:

WRITE IT DOWN.

Play2Win, I've been where you're at now; where I had the correct approaches, both bet selection and money management-wise. I certainly did KNOW exactly what I wanted to do at the Baccarat tables, but sometimes I much-too-easily veered off track and fell victim to the continuum of decisions that this game presents us on a hand-to-hand and moment-to-moment basis. I often fell victim to my own devices, and that, my friend, becomes nothing more than the absolute worst drive home you can imagine...berating myself for playing like an idiot, especially because I KNEW that I was SO MUCH BETTER than that.

So I decided then and there that I would WRITE IT DOWN. I took a blank scorecard and wrote down my preferred trend plays...yes, even how they LOOK on the scorecard...and the corresponding money management plan I utilized to best take advantage of them. My scorecard also included my preferred entry and exit strategies so that I can KNOW exactly when to exit a session at the optimal time...making me FOREVER aware that "walking a profit" (or even a minimized, easily recoverable loss) is the very best of habits to secure as a savvy Baccarat player.

I have a written-out scorecard for each casino that I frequent and I simply place it directly under the new scorecard that I get at each session.

And to this very day, after Goodness Knows how many shoes and/or sessions that I've played after all these years, I religiously carry my written-out scorecard with me to the tables. Why? Because without it, I know that I am but ONE BAD BET AWAY from pissing it all away.

We are, after all, only human...even worse, we're gambling humans...all playing against nothing more that a continuous stream of unnerving decisions; the sooner we come to that realization the sooner we can do something to help us through that continuum.

Me? I WRITE IT DOWN.

Take care and stay well, all.

 

Play2win, i agree with punkcity. Can you share your bet selection ? Especially what you mean 3 favorite trend.

I know not totally guranteed win. I just want to know and learn more about baccarat from experience from real money betting.

Thanks before

 

Thanks very much gr8player. Good to hear from you too. I really enjoyed all your past posts, across the board.
To be honest with you, for a 2 month period I fell victim to "taking this game for granted" because I was winning consistently before that. I tend to "gamble" more as you can see in my recent Trip Reports. That really took me out of my advantaged play that I've recently discovered.

Yes, I've started to write down many things too. But I never get to keep past scorecards. There was a short period where I kept them, but find myself spending too much time thinking about it. Thinking of new "strategies" on BS/MM then pulled those cards out to test against.
To me, at least for now, the less I have to think about gambling or strategizing the better. Because with a fresh mind coming in, I tent to play better. And if you have noticed, I've many times mentioned in this thread about "playing right" or coming in "with the right mindset". That is, my mental state coming in.
But I do see value in your advice, maybe I'll try it soon. Thank you!

 

Hi Ordinary_people, I've been thinking about on one of these "Trip Reports" I'll include a screen shot of the Scoreboard screen provided by the casino, and pointed out on hands where I passed on (No Bet) and hands where I'll bet little to test (getting a feel, to see if my preferred hands are hitting), and on favorite hands where I'll press (usually 5-10 units). And even then, I'll have to explain my reasoning for such decisions, which might take too long to write. But one day, I will.

Caution:
1) That's when I'm on my "A" game, I'm very patient/discipline to trust my instinct and preferred betting. Usually that's when I win by a lot. (Unit size I used here are base units, I do decrease/increase my units by a fair margin depending on Hit Rate).
2) HOWEVER, on one of those days, where I care less about how I play. Or sometimes even to "get it over with", I usually go busted and that might carry into consecutive losing sessions where I played horrible. (Again, losing to myself before the game even started).

So there you go. You can choose to learn a thing or two from me, or any other in this forum, but you first have got to PREPARE yourself for success. That is, being on your A game, and then you'll have a 51% chance against the casino. Cheers.

 

August - Trip #1 Report

Trip Bankroll: 12 units
Trip Goal: Play my best game, then decide to quit when it's appropriate without a set "Unit Goal" in mind.
Pre-trip plan: I've been playing very loose lately, so my goal on this trip is to "FORGET" about the recent loose plays and try to come back to my winning ways.

Play report:
Shoe 1: Started out with 1 unit bets, my Hit Rate was good despite table is losing. I hit about 2W-1L or 3W-1L. Got up to +8 units in like 30 minutes. (I really wished there are "Stadium" games to where I can sit at a station and being able to pick & choose to bet on multiple "Live" in-house games). Real table play to too slow.
Shoe 2: I played too early into the shoe, where there are no trends yet. Hit Rate is 1W-3L and I got down to 10 units overall in no time.
I took a pause, waiting for trends to show up. Toward the middle of the Shoe, a Chop pattern appeared, I tested with a 1 unit, WON. Then I did 2-4-4-4-6...all Ws. a short pause then that Chop continues, so I ended up being up +35 units.
There is a guy playing on Same Table, he pressed like Hell on that Chop pattern and I believed he might be up 100+ units.
Shoe 3: I could've left after Shoe 2, but table was fun and that guy still want to play another shoe so I decided to stay for some more fun.
Not a bad shoe generally, actually some nice streaking B/P runs, but timing wise my bets were a little off. Win a few smaller bets, then lose on bigger ones. Even though I'm losing back some, but I've mentally "locked" a +20 units win, and played with the rest to see how far it takes me.
Tough 2nd part of shoe, I busted on a 6 unit last bet.
So I stood up and left, reserving a +20 units win. That guy left a little earlier than I did, still holding on to his 100+ unit. Smart guy.

At this point I might or might not be back to the casino, I'll see how I feel on certain days, no more pre-planned trips anymore. Cheers!

 

I think there's a bit of miscommunication there, Play2Win. I'm not asking you to "keep past scorecards".

My post above is about writing down on a casino scorecard your preferred method of play, which should include both your bet selection process and your money-management approach, including your strict entry and exit strategies.

It's purpose is to keep with you each and every time that you buy-in at a Bac table and refer to it as necessary. Doing so will go a long way in keeping your play (and your mind) on an even keel and help avoid any "tilting" and/or chasing.

But that's how I prefer to play; if you feel that you don't need any "reminders", that's your choice to make.

Finally, good job, Play2Win, on "locking up" that 20-unit win.

Stay safe and stay well, all.

P.S.: Pay no mind to that other player at your table that pressed his bets and won more money than you did on that winning streak....always keep in mind that players like that will also lose alot more than you would whenever those winning streaks are lacking.

 

Oh yes my bad. I read your post awhile back, so just replying without rereading it and was off.
SURE I think writing like that would definitely help me too, it'd remind me to stay the course.
Gr8player, on another subject let me ask you this: Out of so many years playing Bac, is it still enjoyable to you? Or you treat it more like a routine job now?
Reason for me asking is I used to enjoy it a lot more back then (thrill of the game, the ups and downs...), then went through a horrendous losing streak (guessed it was needed as I was learning the hard way) which made me kind of hated the game (or gambling in general). Then I took a little over a year off, coming back to it with better results. And now I'm more level-headed and majority of time stay even-keeled. That also means less excitement over the ups and downs, but more result oriented now.
If you have some time would you please briefly share your Bac playing journey, the mental aspect of it? (Your maturity as a player)… Thanks

 

Excellent, good timing I just picked up a case of fine Japanese beer and now to kick back and read. Cheers

 

I'm into my 4th decade of playing this game, and, I must say, I've taken it seriously from day one. Before I ever sat down at the table, I had already tried and tested a mode of play that made perfect sense to me at the time based on a couple of books I'd read....well, I "thought" wrong.

And those wrong thoughts cost me quite alot of money. So, yes, me and just about every player all started at the "school of hard knocks". That being said, it didn't take me very long from there to realize that, if I were to continue playing this game, I simply had to get better. Much better.

That's when I learned about Patience and Discipline. I knew that I needed to learn to incorporate both into my play or my search for any sort of long-term success would end up as an exercise in futility. And so I learned to "slow the game down". If I'm going to continue to play this game, I'm going to play it on my terms, where the "games comes to me" as opposed to "me chasing the game".

Take notice of the fact that I haven't even mentioned any bet-selection or money-management methodologies as yet. Why not? Because, IMHO, they are all secondary to first getting your "head" right; in other words, approaching your Bac play with the correct frame of mind.

From there, the journey to my preferred bet-selection process and the correct money-management to go with it....based mostly upon my personal experiences and accompanying statistics and variances....was simply a matter finding the best "ways to a means"; in other words, discovering and implementing the most efficient plan that fit into both my entry and exit strategies.

That all said, please know this: it still remains a struggle. It is now and will forever be so. In fact, the sooner when comes to accept that fact, the better. As you referenced above, Play2Win, too much "over-confidence" at this game can only work against you in so many ways. Recognize the fact each and every new session is but another time that you need to prove yourself; just another time where you need to implement the absolute best plan of play that you have in order to come out on top (or, rather, in some cases, accept as limited a loss as possible).

Lastly, you asked me if it's "still enjoyable" and do I treat it as a "routine job"?:

Well, routine defined as a "fixed program", absolutely yes. But a job? No. A job you have a responsibility to be there....I certainly don't feel that way at a Bac table, nor would I ever want to.

"Still enjoyable", yes. If it weren't, I wouldn't play. I think, if even just for one's own peace of mind, it's important that you at least get some sort of satisfaction while playing the game. Doesn't have to only be monetarily....I'm there as well because I enjoy the challenge of it all.

Here's hoping you guys do as well. Take care, and stay safe.