Baccarat My Losing Week - for Nathan D

Well that did not take long. Nathan Detroit was stating in a thread a few weeks ago that gamblers tend to post their successes but never their losses on the forum. I promised him I would post my next losing week here in a new thread. I try to keep my promises so here it is.

Due the virus I have not been to a physical casino in quite a while. I wanted to try some new ideas so I decided to try Live Dealer online (which is new to me). I made a deposit a couple of months ago. They only allow you 20 seconds between hands so complicated strategies are difficult but I did grow to like the Live Dealer concept.

I deposited just under $6000 and was playing around with some flat betting ideas. I did not have much success and was down to $4000 by the end of the first week or so. I then abandoned that strategy temporarily and was just trying to read the shoe and uses some patterns that test well on my data, combined with various negative progressions. I was doing better but it was a bit volatile. I decided to go back to my old standby (Labby) $100 per string, then later as the account grew $150 per string. I had rules set up to stop and go virtual when losing then start back when I started winning the virtual bets. I also had rules for splitting the Labby if the string was getting too large. Things were going really well and I got the account up to $11,000.

Then one night I was in a session that was a bit rough. I looked and saw that I was up a bit on the session. It was late and I thought about quitting. I did not quit and things did not go well. I have heard people say that "things were just a blur after that" but did not really understand until now. I really don't remember that much about the rest of the night (maybe I am blocking it out) but fast forward to 4am and my account is at Zero. Maybe I was treating it like an online video game?

I wrote all my bets down during this process and took a look at them yesterday. I was not even using the Labby towards the end, looks like I was flat betting. I broke all the rules that I had set up to protect myself, no virtual betting, no splitting .... I lost 13 out of the last 14 bets. I feel like an idiot. I have been doing this for a while and should know better.

Anyway, don't be an idiot like me. Learn from my mistakes. Follow your rules, keep your discipline, don't bet when tired. If you are having a rough session and are up a little (or even down a little) take a break. There is always tomorrow.

I am sure I will try this again, I was making money hand over fist there for a while and feel confident I could do it again if I stay disciplined. I will have to wait until I get over my "I will never gamble again" period.

Nathan D says "they always give it back" and I certainly did in this case. There it is Nathan, my losing week.

 

You know the reason what was the cause of your loss. Leave this behind you and keep forward looking to more controlled sessions in the future .


Since Baccarat is a game of luck not of bet selection strategy I am wishing you the best LUCK.



ND

 

Luck is when there is no plan. No MM or bet selection strategy. So for you ND it's luck. But these games have statistical limitations and a good bet selection combined with a good betting strategy can get the best of it.

Fathead lost his direction; he failed to follow his pre-determined plan. Easier said then done. Create good habits.

Now I don't know how solid his plan is but I do know that you need a firm plan to succeed. IMO it's mostly a MM game. Once you have a bet selection and MM stick to it.

 

I think we have ALL been in this situation. It's incredibly hard sometimes to keep your focus/discipline when frustrated/angry/aggravated. We're only human. Like has been said before, try to learn from this and move on.

 

wow 6k$ bankroll no wonder you bought a cheesy worthless garbage system off ebay because you got unlimited money and if it fails you don't feel the loss, just like the guy on youtube ciara or whatever exposed CM and lost 20k ouch!

but not my system, my system wins long run...

 

LOL. Who is this "letswin...." a hole who is bragging about some mythology? Did fathead say he bought a system? Post something of relevance or go back to your hole!

 

Thanks for the comments, guys. It was a bit painful to relive this but I promised Nathan that I would. I could have pretended that I was still winning, but that is is not real healthy (one of the symptoms of gambling addiction -- Lying about losses).

I am going to take a break from live wagering and try again at a later date with a more structured plan. Where else can you double or triple your investment in a month? If you can maintain discipline with the splitting and re-splitting really the sky is the limit with either the traditional Labby or the HP Johnson style Labby that cps10 is describing in another thread (the advantage to that one is the string length does not increase, X amount of wins clears the string). Bruce Irwin's variation is also a good one described in his classic "The Winner's Edge".

 

Sorry for your lose, fathead. Yeah its hard to be dicipline and not including emotion in the game.

Do you mind explain bruce irwin progression or how he play the game ?

Thanks before

 

He bets small when losing and then progresses up to normal and higher when winning. I will post a link below where you can download the information in the form of a pdf. I will keep the link active for 24 hours if possible so others may download.

https://1drv.ms/b/s!Ak7VqqTyPD02knCSwV1ttRNeEp5D

His book is a good read, by the way. Out of print but you can still get copies from used book stores.

 

Hi Fathead,

Many thanks for your honesty.

I also like labby. How many units do you recommend as session bank roll and session stop loss.

Brgds,

 

not on this thread but claimed to do so on my thread. my theory is right, if what he said is true on my thread, he probably has 600k in his bankaccount and loss a 6k$ bankroll again paying 500$ or whatever he paid prolly didnt hurt em ev wise just made someone else happy
i bet dude never experienced poverty would have made him money smart..

 

50 times your goal for the string seems to be safe ($50 string = $2500). You can get by with less. Rather than a stop loss just stop betting or bet table minimum when losing until your bet selection seems to be winning again. Don't feel like you have to bet every hand.

 

Joey Torres, to clarify, when I say "losing" I mean 3 losses in a row. To paraphrase Lyle Stuart from his book, if you have lost 3 in a row, either bet with the trend beating you or stop betting.

 

I have a better quote for you:

"If you don't have a mathematical edge over the game, dont ever make a bet."

Much more valuable than Stuart's quote.

 

Just curious, jbs, what is your game then? Blackjack with card counting? Honestly curious.

 

What is your goal for you to win that you are risking a 6k bankroll? I would definitely stay away from flat betting in the traditional sense. Unless you have the holy grail of bet selections which is tough in a game of independent random events. Best focus on controlling losses.

 

its alot easier doubling 500$ roll betting 50$ a pop then betting 10$ a pop =)
that guy CM on youtube never loses and if he does lose 2k he wins it right back + profit!

 

Sorry for your lost... I guess most of us here had been in your position.....

 

The flat betting I was trying was a very complicated bet selection. It seemed to do well when hand testing but live it was disappointing. Maybe I will do some more work on it another time, automate it. You would not have to flat bet with it. It could be used with some sort of progression it you had the time. 20 seconds is not much.

My goal? I was going to build the account up and then the goal would be just steady income. I was going to pull a few thousand per month out to supplement my income. That is still the plan. I think it can work. I will let you know how it goes whenever I start back.

 

CarloDarlo, most people I see betting are way underfunded. I like to make sure I have enough at the table to withstand swings. Making $600 in a session is a lot easier with $6000 or $10,000 than with $600 or $1000. I see guys walking up the craps table with $200 and thinking they are going to hit it big, it just does not happen that often.