Baccarat Probability. The tool you use to win consistently.

What is probability in Baccarat? The percentage to win a bet. B or P has a 50/50 probability with House Edge and that is only true considered you only focus on what to bet. However you can change the probability of winning a bet IF you use progression of bets to win a bet. This is a powerful tool often used by system players. From the most conservative Oscar's Grind to the aggressive Grand Martingale .
Mind you if you PREDETERMINED your bet selections, you will get the probability but if you lose one and lose another one individually, you are just dealing with multiples 50/50 proposition. It's only after the losses that on paper the casino has overcame certain probability to get all your money. Probability are REAL Maths and not Fallacies. For you to lose 5 in a row it's only 3.1% . You have a 96.9% of winning. However playing the game of chance is decided by ODDS and not probability. You may inflate your probability but have to give up the PAYOUT RATIO which means you have to risk more to win less.
Anyway, there is this thing called MANUFACTURED PROBABILITY which do give you real probability but you have to give up something else. That something else is the WAITING game OR the lack of opportunities to play.
How?
Coming Soon..,.....

 

I love Oscars grind.

 

I like it too. It's the most conservative progression after Flat Betting. The waterloo is of course the dreaded WLWLWL etc.

 

How to understand and use probability is the factor that determines long term winners. There are times where False Probability are thought to be real. Example: Probability can be determined by the number of chances you are given NOT to lose your bet. It can also be number of chances you get to win your bet. If you use 5 step Marty 1,2,4,8,16, you have 31 out of 32 chance to win but that's not all. It is ONLY true provided the House has ONY one shot of breaking you. This is where everybody is WRONG thinking everytime it's 31/32. If you keep giving the House tries after tries, it will eventually break you. By now you all should know why Hit & Run is priceless. In Baccarat using too many steps of a Martingale is hard to lose BUT the bet becomes too big that a loss will have devastating effect aftermath. The most suitable one is a 4 or 5 step Marty where you have substantial probability to win and the losses are Manageable.

 

Sorry, the hits and run thing is bollocks, too, hey hey.

 

O boy Craps you got it WLWLWL kills you but there are only min shoes that will beat you in Myrtles grind

 

Maybe for some other methods. But for Martingale, a definite yes. Reason is simple. When we say probability we have to tie it up with Law of Averages to make the Math right. This is where people fail to accept. In a 2 step Martingale, you have 3 winners and 1 loser. But if you continue playing, the loser will pop out to even out to make it 59/50. Those are facts.

 

Correction above. It's 50/50. Fat fingers.
You can also think about it another way. Suppose I give you no options but to do a positive 5 double up bets. The when and where and how is decided by me. Say you have to play BPBPB exactly from hand 10-15. One loss and you are done. What do you think your chances are? 1 in 32. What is the likely scenario? You will lose.
So in reality I am making the House do a 5 double up on me the way I want. By not doing a Hit & Run, you are essentially a sitting Duck. After a win, I can change my trigger and bet selection altogether. Yes, the bust will come but it's all factored in. I am making the House go to enormous lengths to take my money. Playing the game with the Math on my side.

 

Is 5 Marty strong enough? Nope, it isn't. It's just OK. Then what about 6 Marty ? 6 is definitely better BUT the sixth step is equivalent to the whole 5 Marty bankroll plus 1 therefore making it not desirable. If you can lose 5, you can lose 6. Yes. The 6 th. step would have save half the bets BUT the bet is equal to the 5 Marty bankroll making it not good. So, how can we get more probability from a 5 Marty besides it's 31/32? By manufacturing more Real probability. How about an 8 step Marty with the bankroll of a 5 Marty!
Coming Soon.,...............

 

Nah, the hits and run stuff even more absurd and silly than the trendings, hey hey.

 

I used to think like you too Soxfan until I put it to test. Just to be fair to yourself do it once everyday. However you want to do it. It don't have to be 5 Marty with all 5 bets in a row. Just document how many times you lost your first 5 bet selections then only talk. In this case type.
By the way, looking at past results to determined future outcomes is bollocks too. Are we all ignorant of this mentality?

I always support my claims with logical explanations. In Math when you have 1 out of 8 to win, and was given 8 tries, that means you have a better chance to make it from just given 1 chance. Think about it. Don't forget we are at the subject of Probability.

 

If a cat got a real ACTUAL winning style then that style will be worth so many unit per shoe, no more or less. So a cat just need to play a certain number of shoe per day, and for me that was six shoe per day five day per week forty eight week per year as I did for twelve year. So, if a cat hits and run, or take profit or stops loss and walk after just a coupla shoe then he gonna actually shorts change his self and diminish his profitability, hey hey.

 

You started the reply with a big IF. That says it all.

 

Yes very doable, I have done this in the past (way before the stadium system was put in at the casino ) gave it up as the live dealer table here ( not many at the time) was too long a wait for the triggers. Lol urban myth my trigger was the 13th hand , bet banker , ties not counted.
Good post. That content you post this thread is the difference between a professional Marty player and the hillbilly. And yes on occasion you do lose the whole Marty but you should have the back up bankroll to come back the next day , that’s professional.

Rather than post new post re the hit and run issues dialogue between you and soxfan.
Has anyone stop to consider that after the sixth shoe has been played that is apart of the rule based scenario, 12:30 am start, play every shoe for six shoes, end , tally, leave, come back next time/day/ morning.
Is actually hit and run on a longer time scale! We are not talking profit/loss hit run as per rules described above but it’s hit and run on the time . Something no one can get away from.
You start playing ( hit)
You stop playing ( run)
Regardless of
Profit
Loss
Time
Non played hands
Ties
Start -Finish.
Cheers

 

Err.......not quite the Hit & Run that you described. It's one and done type that I am describing. Terrorist style. Sucker Punch. Nibble at the cheese. I favor Martingale not because I like the name or the Probability. It's all so structured that I can be completely in control. Winning the usual 8 units or losing 24-31 units. No if's or but's. Always knowing what to bet and when to bet including the bet amount. The difficult part is the waiting game.

 

OK. MANUFACTURED PROBABILITY. Many system players would put in a trigger to decide the entry point. Some triggers are made up of B or P. Some triggers are made up of mirroring certain outcomes which essentially is SAME or OPPOSITE. Some uses number of wins or losses prior to entry point as triggers. All these triggers are beneficial to a certain degree because they do help you decide the WHEN to bet but they are giving you FALSE added probability. By virtually losing 3 times before your 5 Marty DO NOT make the probabilities of an 8 Marty.The reason is simple. YOU ARE LETTING THE 3 TRIGGER LOSSES COME ANYWHERE IN THE SHOE. What it means is the 3 trigger losses is BOUND to happen and happen easily because it's only 1 in 8. If you waited for 3 virtual losses and bust your 5 Marty, on paper, you have lost 8 in a row but the 3 losses in front has no value because it DID NOT come at a predetermined specific place. Therefore to really benefit form an 8 Marty with a 5 Marty bankroll, you need the trigger to come true AT A SPECIFIC HAND & LOSE the next 5 hands.

The probability of winning with an 8 Marty is 255 out of 256 or 99.61%
The probability of losing with an 8 Marty 1 in 256 or 0.39 %

Sure the chances of winning is enormous and the chances of losing is close to none BUT the ODDS will get you because All your wins are FRACTIONAL of the series bankroll at risk. THe only effective way to make this work is Patience with a lot of charting and Hit & Run.

Martingale players failed because

No triggers with manufactured probability.
Not enough or no charting at all.
No Hit & Run.
No optimized sessions stop/win for long term success.
Not keeping at least 75% of winnings for rainy days.
Not doing ANY homework for your next assignment thinking one size fits all.
Deviation after busting.
No subsequent planning after busting.
NO PATIENCE & DEDICATION FOR SUCCESS.

 

Well of course what I said I only apply to cats what got an actual winning style, otherwise it don't matter anyway, hey hey.

 

Well, why don't you just say your method beats the casino in the long run Flat Betting and you would have got millions and millions of investors' money AND winnings from casinos . There is nothing that will benefit you anymore because you already have the goods. Either share your method or go make your millions instead of cruelty to cats.

 

If we choose to use probability, we have to include Law of Averages as well. The logical reasoning is no matter how much percentage the winning side has, the losing side does has some or a little possibility that it may prevailed. A 2 step Marty requires 3 units to win 1 unit and the chances of winning is 75%. BB. BP. PP. PB. Think about this for a moment. If I hit and run only once, the probability is 3 in 4 ( 75% ) If the loss happens right away (perfect storm) I need to win back 3 x to get back to even $$$. The LOA is on my side to win the next 3 BUT imbalances do happens. Therefore if I continue playing I need some sort of run which will give me more than 3 wins to recoup my losses. THis is where Hit & Run with charting comes in. I will plan in such a way that there is a good enough disparity in the weak side where I will bet against the strong side not to appear just once and done. My probability is still 3 in 4 but the LOA part gives me the upper hand. As we know LOA is the reason casino wins.

If you just chart B and P, there will be a point where everything comes up even and goes uneven again. LOA works in a very peculiar way.One B and one P and it is even but for those who charted from 10 hands ago it could be 11 Bs and 1 P. It works the same for everything else related. The # of times you win a high bet and the # of times you lose a high bet will even out at some point too. The ultimate thing to do is avoiding the losses that should have come but was not wagered. ( Hit & Run ) This is the reason why a Martingale with a personal record of plays. wagers and outcomes with planning according to imbalances can give the user an upper hand to grind out an average 1 or 2 units a shoe.

 

Probability and Law of Averages. The 2 things that goes 2 different ways. One works for the House and One works for the players. If you play to win 1 unit with a 5 Marty, you have probability. if you go on playing, the probability is intact but you are letting the LOA works its way in. For the House LOA works very well when there is a lot of action but at certain times tremendous high rolling action do come in and create set backs for the casinos. Therefore, it will need some time for things to even out again. But for the individual player going against the House, only his playing records are affected by LOA. So it's logical to work on those records to find your bet selections. Example: IF you document your shoe results in blocks of 5, a 60 hand shoe would give you 12 blocks. There are 32 ways a 5 hand block can be varied. In a perfect word each pattern should appear once after 32 blocks. Therefore for a pattern to repeat within 32 blocks, that means this particular pattern has overcome both probability and LOA. This is not strong enough. What if it repeats again within 32 blocks from the last time it appears. Now there is some sort of disparity. Now I can say if I were to bet for it not to come the Math is on my side. For me to lose I will enjoy both the probability and LOA for me to win.
Together with a trigger and Hit & Run, it's hard not to win. Even if the Perfect Storm happens, it's not the end of the World. There will be enough units won to cover a loss. Good Luck!