Baccarat I discovered this but need people to confirm it

As I suspected the next 10 shoes took a turn for the worst. There were at one point 12 unbalanced blocks in a row. Unbalanced is going to happen more than Balanced. Trigger needs to be a little more defined. I have some ideas but need to think a little more. Plus something that can withstand a few losses. UB can come in big waves.

 

So of the 20(?) shoes you checked, what was the balance vs unbalanced total? Most and average number of balanced IAR? If I'm not mistaking the OP's intention, this is exactly what he is thinking it should be. Now the logistics would be how to attack?

 

Looking over my test, here is what I discovered were the win numbers. A "1" indicates that it won on the first bet; a "5" means that it won on the 5th bet, which is deep into a Martingale.

Playing with BBB and PPP being Balanced:

2-1-6-2-1-4-1-3-2-2-2-3-1-1-1-4-1-1-1-2-2-1-1-2-1-5-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-5-1-2-4-2-2-3-3-1-2-1-2-5-2-2-2-1-1-3-1-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-2-2-4-2-2-6-2-1-3-1-3-3-4-1-1-4-1-3-1-5 = 167 / 82 = 2.04 average (meaning it hit on average every 2.04 bets)

Playing with BBB and PPP being Unbalanced:

2-1-4-2-1-2-4-2-3-2-3-1-1-3-1-1-1-1-3-2-3-1-5-1-2-1-1-1-1-1-1-2-5-1-2-2-2-1-4-4-2-2-8-2-2-2-1-1-5-2-1-3-2-2-1-3-3-5-2-1-1-2-1-6-4-1-2-3-1-3-1-5 = 161 / 72 = 2.24 (meaning it hit on average every 2.24 bets)

If I were to tweak it, I would say that if you played 2 bets and it didn't win then, then wait until your next opportunity. MOST of the winners hit within 2 bets. I don't know if you'd continue your Marty or maybe just start over or what. I will look into this further later on.

 

These records will do well with Labouchere or cancellation system.

 

Let’s put it together.

 

Hi, The data mentioned in ur last post is of how many shoes?

 

Hi Ravi,

It’s 10 shoes for each set of data. Keep in mind that trying to create a “long term” scenario is futile as you will never in your lifetime play that much. Taking advantage of the short term is where you want to be to win.

All of us are playing short term ultimately. How do we win in this time? I guess that’s what we’re all trying to figure out with our various methods of play and money management techniques.

 

This is where I tried to tell everybody using a progression. Think short term BUT chart long term.
It's funny how people talk about Timing bet selection or Timing when to bet high or low BUT never realize that they can time a progression too. Progression to them means playing every opportunity to win as much as possible and that's where success and failure differences is.
Learn to understand Hit & Run.

 

Craps,

Exactly. I don’t find it necessary to play every single hand. Timing is good. Of course we don’t know when the timing will pan out but if you are confident in your own play, it will help you be successful. I think that’s how a lot of the successful posters on here roll.

 

IMO the long term is different for everyone. And yes, you must have a continuous chart. For a regular player using the same methods there comes to a point of winning OR losing whereby it would be very difficult if not impossible to reverse one's W/L registry or $ W/L. For example even after only 10,000 wagers if you are losing and still have a bankroll or dip in for more bankroll the odds of getting to a profit in the next 10,000 hours would require an unrealistic win rate. Same is true if one is significantly in profit. Of course this assumes same basic average bet size.

 

On the subject of long term. People wrongly used long term when it is actually short term. To win 50 hands more and have it not move 1 percentage point is long term in my book. Therefore people claiming winning 52% in the long run is actually winning in the short run. From the Casino side is different because the House edge is there to make sure there is no comeback for anybody in the long term.
One have to make sure that losses will never be written off. It's has to be won back. Play for Short Term but plan for Long Term. For me, the ONLY way to do it is with Probability with some kind of progression and Hit & Run. These 2 things is a confidence builder because they come easily if you SWEAR by them. In short one can say it's not the method. It's the mindset.

 

1,1,1,2,2,3,4,5,7,10,13,17
For once a 12 step positive type of progression. Use the Even and Uneven 4 Blocks and try to win Two(2) in a row.
Use 1 figure at a time. After a win, parlay the bet or simply let it all ride one more time. After a loss, just move to the next figure. One successful parlay out of 12 times will see a profit. The risk is 66 units.
Doable?

 

Based on the data I threw out there it can be done. Multiple times. Well those two data sets are based on a different set of selection rules but I don’t see why not.

 

Yeah I don't know anyone who doesn't take a break after deciding they won enough or lost enough. I will generally quit a shoe after an acceptable loss. Usually this happens after I've come back somewhat and decide I don't need to go further. Doesn't it happen often. I can recoup pretty easily even with a 42% strike rate.

 

Hi, Cps10, eager to see u play a shoe with positive progression aiming for two wins in a row ,thanks buddy

 

I will try and get some time this weekend to do that.

 

Ok,thanks will be waiting

 

Hi, Waiting for u to play a sample shoe, with tweaked MM,

 

There's 2 things we need to know with any progression style if it's doable. What is the average win on winning shoes and what is the shoe win percentage. From this information we can determine what it takes to recoup a loss. But in order to know this we have to have a defined bet selection otherwise we're just guessing.

With that information we could decide whether it's a practical approach or not. From my experience with working with various progressions it appears that we need to have at least 85% shoe win percentage and no more than 12 steps in the progression. So this progression could work out if we can win enough shoes to make it practical.

So take sox fan new flat bet holy Grail for example. He's got about 65% shoe win percentage. And that's just not enough to be practical because it takes too much time to recoup large drawdown.

Even if guessing the history works to gain 1.27 units a shoe, which is doubtful, losing 35 shoes out of a 100 doesn't feed the bulldog.

 

Everything works until it doesn't. And then, they create new cockamamie betting schemes that suck just as much as the last one did.