Baccarat Oscar's grind + baccarat

This thread is fun and games isn't it? This why we like the Forum.

Nice thing about stadium is you do not have to keep track of commission. You know what the next bet has to be if you want to recoup 1 unit.
Something wrong with that screenshot, OB. PB tally shows B 17 P 35 for 52 non tie hands. But Main road shows B 16 P 31 for only 47 hands. ?? Something weird. But let's just use the Main Road on your first example.

31 P and 16 B = 34% strike rate. I don't get the same numbers Jae got but no matter. Maybe he just looked too quickly. No matter. Point is he needs to only hit a 44% or 45% strike rate to gain 1 unit net. IOW, another 9 more wins then losses and he gets 1 unit ahead. But. . . more importantly the casino still "owes" him another 3 or 3.5 % wins before he needs to quit and wait for a -20 to re-start.

So that is where the big payoff is. If he were to keep track of the W/L registry he would keep going and who knows the variance may turn around next few shoes and not go below 50% for a while. When it does, stop and re-start waiting for the -20.

J

 

Very detailed Jimske. I just randomly logged on and saw this as a potential nemesis and screenshot and posted.

its already 57 hands so if you are looking at the Pearl Chart on the left, it has shifted one whole column. There are only 51 hands presented here. Mobile screens unable to display everything.

Anyway, playing this approach is challenging for my psyche. If I play my usual game I should be up @8-10 units for this shoe. The Oscar ending up with -@80+ and still not considered a nemesis!??

Its too much of a grind for me although I was first fascinated by the fact that it can be replicated in teams.

Always open to learning. Peace

 

What is -ve ?

 

Negative

 

Stress test, LOL Rainy today.

So I picked a bunch of shoes from Foxwood. Played them out and won about $400 net after 6 shoes. Then I hit a losing shoe and went into recovery. P 42 B 33 and went up to $33.00 bet and ended shoe down $188.00

Just kept on grinding $1.00 increments on a fictive $5 table. Bottom line is I did recover but it took me quite a long time. 12 more shoes and finally got $16.00 net profit to end that session. So that was about 19 or 20 hours play time to get $416.00.

P 421 B 423 Total 844 hands played to finally get $16.00 profit. Bet size creeped up to $367.00. Last bet needed to be $175.00 to qualify for the win. 50.1% Bankers so a bit shy but not unusual. Largest drawdown $4,905.00. Commission was $3,896.60!!!

????? High rent district! Is it really worth playing Banker? Particularly when your waiting for the other side to go South? Maybe wait for a -30 instead if a -20 to jump in?

J

 

I may be confused about your play. What was your unit size again? ...$1.00 or $5.00 or were you initially playing $5.00 units and only going up $1.00?

 

I don’t want anyone who may try Oscar’s to be confused about my own play. When I mention dollar increments, I don’t mean during a series. I mean that whenever you make $2,000, increase your unit size by a $1.00 increment.

so assuming someone were to start with $10,000, that’s the bankroll I would use for $5.00 units. Once my bankroll is at $12,000 I would go up a dollar increment and my unit size would now be $6.00.

 

Also, if you have the shoes you played through in order and want to post them, I can double check and see if it comes out that way or maybe see where a mistake or problem arose from. I’m not saying it didn’t happen or isn’t possible. I would just be very surprised that you ran into that situation so quickly upon testing.

 

And for anyone curious about how far south this system can go, it can really go south. You’re not going to see negative 200 or more in one single shoe starting out, but it can go a little over negative 100 in a single starting shoe. I’m not going to say it’s rare to see player outnumber banker by x2, because that happens, and it’s usually setting you up for a recovery process that will most likely take a couple hours to recoup from. I’ll post a real life sample:

 

In that example, player was very dominant and thus this shoe is very devastating for Oscar. When 14 players IAR happened we were already in a grind, so that just really beats ya down. I’m not gonna go through this to see what the count was, but just from scanning it, it looks like it’s over 100. The way that I have my photos organized in my phone, I grouped this picture in a folder called (over 100), so I feel confident saying that it went over 100 without checking again. In the same folder this was the only follow up picture that I posted, so it must have recovered plus one the very next shoe. Which isn’t rare, but is the most ideal way to recover as far as not getting too deep or losing too much on commission.

 

Well, as I mentioned in comment, why not to stop betting after 3 loses and wait until streak of PPPPPPP ends? Maximum I personally experienced 23 Players in a row!

 

I would have to test it some. When you first mentioned it in this thread I pulled up my records to begin analyzing it. This is the very first shoe I ever recorded at Mohegan. Ignore the big red blob on there. That’s a big 1.

the problem I see with stopping after 3 players in a row is this: there will be about the same number of 3 IAR’s as there are longer streaks. Give or take. So the odds still come down to favor baker being the next best bet. In my first and only shoe I tested this method, I ran into this. This of course ignores me waiting for a virtual loss of 20 in a row, but assuming I was playing every hand.
If I play every hand in this section, I would be up +1 banker. If I stop after 3 losses in a row and then add 1 unit to my bet after banker hits I would now be, well I don’t know exactly because I’m not sure how you’d play this one out, but let me know what your final number would be on this example. How you would play it. I would be at +1 if not waiting doe -20 as a starting trigger.

 

@BeJustRich

and sorry, I’m not knocking it. I’m actually browsing through some cards now, and there are instances where I see that it would work to my advantage. But I also see times where I don’t recoup as fast or put myself in a worse position. I have one shoe that is 3 layers followed by 2 bankers followed by 3 players and 2 bakers several times. Are those basically the terrible 2’s? Not sure how it would all play out. Maybe the same, maybe better, maybe worse. But I will spend some time tonight with my team looking at the option. Thank you!

 

Bankers is slight odds on favorites to win every hand so no good reason to not bet every hand and gut out the stretches where players come strong, hey hey.

 

The way I did this was to use virtual bet $5 until -20. So my 1st bet is $5 if win my 2nd bet is $6. So yeah, $1.00 increments.

If I use $5 unit then $10.00 on win it would be very different outcome.

 

Come to think of it some casinos in Atlantic City are posting table minimums of $ 40 at the Baccarat tables.


This according to one poster about a few weeks ago.

 

Forum doesn't accept excel spreadsheet. I csn send them to you if you want. I got thousands like this so it's pretty easy to knock stuff out.

 

I love this concept of playing. Thank you. Question..When you say "a series" do you mean a series is over when you reach your +18-20U and then you start a new series when you reach -20 virtually? If you end a shoe at -40/10 do you start the next shoe at -40/10 immediately or do you wait for the -20 to start the-40/10?

Mark

 

I would not Play Banker only, I already explained how to choose bet selection in private email. So in this shoe I would be:

WWWLWLLWWWLWWWWWWWWWWL

I LOVE streaks and doesn't matter its B or P

 

So short response would be, your next bet should have been $10.00 if your starting unit is $5.00

I think my mention of dollar increments may have confused some folks. I’m not altering Oscar’s grind in any way.