1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Baccarat Oscar's grind + baccarat

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by BeJustRich, Apr 23, 2021.

  1. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2014
    Likes:
    702
    Not a great start. :(

    20210425_202850.jpg
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  2. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    351
    Location:
    Connecticut
    I’m not sure I’m reading your excel sheet properly. Are the yellow and blue supposed to represent player and banker?
     
  3. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    351
    Location:
    Connecticut
    In the beginning I see -5 followed by 0. After that it says -10.

    just to clarify how Oscar’s grind works, that wouldn’t be a 10 unit bet. Your goal in a series is to only win 1 unit. So if it goes -5 and then back to 0, your next bet is still just 1 unit. So it should
    Be -5 at that point. Then after -10 it goes Back to 0, but then you have -15, so I’m assuming you are going up another unit after a win.

    If this play is taking into account a trigger of -20, then remember that it’s -20 units that I start playing at, not -$20.
     
  4. Jae

    Jae Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2018
    Likes:
    351
    Location:
    Connecticut
    I’ve outlined a section of your sheet.
    It goes from -110 to -80 to -45 to -5

    that is all correct up to that point. Just in the part I outlined. It probably shouldn’t have gotten that high in the first place, but here’s where it’s important. Once you’re down to -5, you’re next bet was 45 putting you at -50. The object is to only win 1 unit. So your next bet when you were -5 should have been 10. Once that lost you are locked in at 10 and you are now at -15 for your count until you win again. Does this help?
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Apr 26, 2021
  5. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2014
    Likes:
    702
    Thanks. Oh right, sorry. I do include commission to date so next bet would be 10 to gain a whole net unit.
     
  6. Ravinderchawla

    Ravinderchawla Member

    Joined:
    Sep 24, 2018
    Likes:
    20
    Location:
    India
    Hi, Be just Rich, Could u kindly explain bet selection of streaks,u can pm me ravinderchawlaj1228 at gmail dotcom
     
  7. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2014
    Likes:
    702
    @ Jae
    Sorry I wasted time messing the OG up. I get it. There is the question of commission. One might want to ignore it or in the lower level add a small amount of money to cover it.

    Re: vertical scorecard. Left column is P. Right column is B. Blue just highlighted the singles. It's a convenient way to keep track of units and win loss registry if you playing live. It's super convenient for testing. I have a program that does all that for me pretty quickly.

    I use the roads when I play now so I generally use a horizontal form when I'm playing.
     
    judge likes this.

  8. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2018
    Likes:
    253
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Jae.I totally see what you see and play somewhat what you play but unfortunately those so called Baccarat enthusiasts in this forum is clueless what we both embraced here.
    Why is there a drawdown playing only B. Answer is simple. Disparity or imbalances of P over B.
    What makes you win with a comeback after a drawdown? The Law of Averages. It's the Law that in a binary outcome game that one side is bound to show up. It won't stayed dormant forever. Together with Oscar's Grind which is most conservative approach after Flat betting if you have the discipline and patience, you should win. Flat betting has a flaw because it relies totally on accuracy of bet selection and when LoA strikes, the House Edge will work for the House. But many thinks they have the talent to be more accurate than not so it's useless to further having a discussion with them. And there are those who think timing the Luck Trend is the way . Although this is good approach but it becomes too subjective and too difficult to master.
    I can see you do Homework just like me where you waited for -20 which is an imbalance, then only start playing. So your personal records or shoes becomes your destiny. and no one else's. Keep winning!
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2021
    Jimske likes this.
  9. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2014
    Likes:
    702
    The imbalance stuff is interesting. Remember Eugene's recent post regarding dominance?

    Sure, regression to the mean us inevitable bit in the short term that imbalance often continues. I saw this repeatedly when testing soxfsn 12 step some time ago.

    So now when I see an imbalance I think it's just as likely to continue or not.
     
  10. Craps

    Craps Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2018
    Likes:
    253
    Location:
    Las Vegas
    Imbalance does not mean you jump on it OR jump against it. You have to have substantial part records to see how wide an imbalance should be. For me a 5 Marty makes so much easier to find imbalances because I am dealing with blocks of 5 hands. So if a certain 5 pattern does not appear in 50 blocks or appear twice in 50 blocks, it is ripe for the taking. Hit & Run seals it.
     
  11. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    398
    Jimske what would you like to know about imbalance and regression towards the mean.
    I think I am the first one introducing Marigny De Grilleau into gambling forums in the year 2007/2008
    At VLS and GG

    If we skip the playing models for overrepresented and underrepresented events, we add value to each side of a coin flip.
    The value is one.

    Now let's say you have six Players and one Banker then math and probability dictates that you get at least two more events.
    Regression, if you bet that the sequence not will reach 2.5 or 3.0 STDV.

    Look at the details, if you get one more underrepresented event you have 2,5 STDV is you get none you have above 3.0 STDV.
    So that single third event makes the strength of the imbalance drop below 2.5 STDV.

    I can go deep into details if anyone is interested, I can explain the probability and the math behind overrepresented and underrepresented events from any perspective you like.

    Cheers
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2021
  12. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    398
    Ecart.jpg Here is a dummy chart, at the left side you have the strength behind the overrepresented events and above on top you have the underrepresented events.

    See attchment

    Cheers
     
  13. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    398
    Here is a baccarat excel sheet to calculate and make z-score charts.

    For example, you bet in 16 placed bets and 14 wins and have two losses you will reach a 3.26 Z-score
    With the statistical ECART calculation, you get a 3.0 value.

    See attachment
     

    Attached Files:

  14. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    398
    Let's crack some numbers and play the only Banker.
    Then each time we get single we lose and if not then series of two give us even money, so series of three and higher should be the target.

    Singles has the value of 1
    Series of two has the value of 0
    Series of three has the value of 1

    Now we can build a chart to see the Z-score and imbalance versus singles and a series of three.

    And larger series has the following values

    Series of four has the value of 2
    Series of five has the value of 3
    Series of six has the value of 4
    Series of seven has the value of 5
    And so it continues

    Works great with the dummy chart above or create your own using the Statistical Ecart Formula

    Illustration

    The French word for STDV is Ecart.

    First, you have to get the Absolute Ecart when you calculate.
    So let's assume you have a sequence with 14 series alternating with 2 singles present.

    Then you take 14 - 2 = 12

    Now we want to get the statistical Ecart so we continue with...

    14 + 2 = 16

    Now we take the sqr of 16 = 4

    And finally, we divide the absolute Ecart whit the sqr

    12 sqr 4 = 3,00

    The Statistical Ecart 3,00

    Here below is one example of imbalance with singles versus series of three.
    Charting like this gives you perfect insight into small, medium and large imbalance samples.

    1. Z-Score 0,02 - 1 singles contra 1 series of three
    2. Z-Score 0,73 - 2 singles contra 1 series of three
    3. Z-Score 1,18 - 3 singles contra 1 series of three
    4. Z-Score 1,53 - 4 singles contra 1 series of three
    5. Z-Score 1,82 - 5 singles contra 1 series of three
    6. Z-Score 2,07 - 6 singles contra 1 series of three
    7. Z-Score 2,30 - 7 singles contra 1 series of three
    8. Z-Score 2,51 - 8 singles contra 1 series of three
    9. Z-Score 2.58 9 singles contra 1 series of three
    10. Z-Score 2,70 - 10 singles contra 1 series of three
    11. Z-Score 2,89 - 11 singles contra 1 series of three
    12. Z-Score 3,06 - 12 singles contra 1 series of three
    13. Z-Score 3,22 - 13 singles contra 1 series of three
    14. Z-Score 3,37 - 14 singles contra 1 series of three
    15. Z-Score 3,52 - 15 singles contra 1 series of three
    16. Z-Score 3,66 - 16 singles contra 1 series of three
    17. Z-Score 3,80 - 17 singles contra 1 series of three
    18. Z-Score 3,93 - 18 singles contra 1 series of three
    19. Z-Score 4,06 - 19 singles contra 1 series of three
    20. Z-Score 4,18 - 20 singles contra 1 series of three
    21. Z-Score 4,30 - 21 singles contra 1 series of three
    22. Z-Score 4,42 - 22 singles contra 1 series of three
    23. Z-Score 4,53 - 23 singles contra 1 series of three
    24. Z-Score 4,64 - 24 singles contra 1 series of three
    25. Z-Score 4,75 - 25 singles contra 1 series of three
    26. Z-Score 4,86 - 26 singles contra 1 series of three
    27. Z-Score 4,96 - 27 singles contra 1 series of three
    28. Z-Score 5,07 - 28 singles contra 1 series of three
    29. Z-Score 5,17 - 29 singles contra 1 series of three
    30. Z-Score 5,26 - 30 singles contra 1 series of three
    31. Z-Score 5,36 - 31 singles contra 1 series of three
    32. Z-Score 5,45 - 32 singles contra 1 series of three
    33. Z-Score 5,55 - 33 singles contra 1 series of three
    34. Z-Score 5,64 - 34 singles contra 1 series of three
    35. Z-Score 5,73 - 35 singles contra 1 series of three
    36. Z-Score 5,82 - 36 singles contra 1 series of three
    37. Z-Score 5,90 - 37 singles contra 1 series of three
    38. Z-Score 5,99 - 38 singles contra 1 series of three
    39. Z-Score 6,07 - 39 singles contra 1 series of three

    Also mention this ...

    That 68.3% of the time the divergence would be one STDV or less. Either side of the MEAN. "
    That 95% of the time the divergence would be 2 STDV's or less. Either side of the MEAN.
    That 99.7% of the time the divergence would be 3 STD'Vs or less. Either side of the MEAN.
    That only 0.3% of the time would the divergence exceed 3 STDV's

    Cheers Sputnik The Gambler

    20 of anything, for example, Player would be 4.18 STDV versus one Banker.
    One event can be anything as long you can compare it with a coin flip.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2021
    asymbacguy likes this.

  15. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    398
    I have never shared this before, but I can simulate all results and step by step see what happens before a 3.0 STDV using different playing models.
    Here is one image from a playing model - excel sheet - that pinpoint out all singles versus larger series.
    I can use only Player or only Banker side or both using the same playing model that I mentioned above.

    Jimske is the only one I would trust with this - excel sheet - and Asymbadguy ...

    Screenshot 2021-04-26 21.49.33.png
     
  16. judge

    judge Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2019
    Likes:
    142
    Location:
    Texas
    Jae....when you have time I would appreciate an answer to my question. Post #58. Thanks
     
  17. Sputnik

    Sputnik Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Dec 28, 2014
    Likes:
    398
    Jae, I respect the way you play and sorry for the crunch of your topics with math and probability - I just get exided - I want to show you a beautiful thing unfold - seven in a row after 4.0 STDV similar to -20 of any event.
    That would be a nice run using Oscar.
    That seven was among 4s and 5s :)
    See attachment - singles versus larger series.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Apr 26, 2021
    asymbacguy likes this.
  18. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 17, 2015
    Likes:
    70
    Excellent work Patrik.

    as.
     
  19. BeJustRich

    BeJustRich Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 21, 2019
    Likes:
    80
    Location:
    Iceland
    Well, guys, today I was playing non stop like 10 hours! 12 entire shoes. Bet Selection my personal one but MM used OG.
    792 bets placed.
    Starting bankroll 1000
    Finished 1623
    The biggest bet was in the beginning of the day 47 and in the end 84 (almost started believe that i am going to lose all, went down from 1500 till 900 and then jump up) I was planning to play just 10 shoes, but can not leave the game with 50 unit bet! So It took me additional 2 more to sort things in my favor!
    Only on thing what I do not like is:
    When you go from the beginning everything looks cool, win go 1 2 3 4 .... but when you are at 50 or more, this little fraction of extra 1 unit doesn't give the same effect on bankroll as at the beginning, so reason why i am thinking that best is to increase by % not by 1 2 3 4...
    But still, +60% a day, not bad! But I am super tired now :(
     
    MDP42, Joey Torres and Lungyeh like this.
  20. judge

    judge Active Member

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2019
    Likes:
    142
    Location:
    Texas
    I'll be glad to see Eugene return with his new version he talked about in one of his post.
    I'll be glad to see Eugene return with his new cheat sheet he posted about. I hope all is ok Eugene.
     

Share This Page