Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

But now it’s at -23, which is time for me to bet. Cheers!

 

You going to wait for -20 every shoe start or just first shoe of session?

Thanks

 

I always wait. Sometimes I get two -20’s in the same shoe. Sometimes the tail of a shoe sets up a quicker -20 in the next shoe. I debated a long time whether we should count that or not, but since we play from shoe to shoe if we are in a grind, might as well count the virtual ends as well.

 

Wh

What really sucks is that sometimes I’m so close to my trigger. On this secondary shoe it just went -16 betting 4. Player needed to win one more for me to start and banker fully recovered in one run.

 

And sorry, I’m not trying to hijack this thread.

 

Cool Soxfan. We are all here to share, to learn &!to contribute to the greater good of the baccarat fraternity. That said, granted there are many intonations that may sometimes rub people the wrong way. Take it with a shrug of the shoulders.

Passionate as one is with Banker always bet, there are always those who prefer Player solely and those that can alternate between the two. I know of an American looking man, with the swagger of Clint Eastwood though not quite as lithe (the casualness of his dressing plus the quiet loudness of the way he carries his at all times S$300,000,-400,000 chips around in the casino’s chip boxes suggest so) who always always bets Player. He plops himself down after walking around the main hall of the casino as if to announce ‘the Americano’ is here. 20-30k bet per hand. And I see him winning more often than not. I kid you not.

Jae and Soxfan’s situation sure lend credence to the title of this thread. Thanks to Jae for the very detailed explanation to my stupid questions. Like I said, the kind of drawdown is something that will need getting used to but the methodology was explained to the end. Whether I can adapt is another issue. Not that I brushed negative Martingale away with nary a thought ot consideration for it. My many experiences in the past were unpleasant and I have seen too many players taken to the morgue. Some have presented that negative Martingale dealt with a special skillset is winnable. There was even a thread name on it. We await details with patience as Jae has done for OG.

And Soxfan, I envy your lifestyle and hope to emulate you in the not too distant future. For now I have too many commitments to disengage myself from. 200k, US$ is the @April salary for my factory in Navanakorn, Thailand, an hour’s drive from Bangkok.

 

In my other post, I mentioned getting to the bottom of every detail on a losing day. Many Martingale players overplay the progression thinking that it is infallible. As I said so many times although the probability is intact for every series, the LoA part will tilt towards the House more and more. Unless there is a great imbalance, a 5 Marty should bust once in 32 hands. So how much is enough? For me it is Hit & Run and the LoA has to be in my favor meaning 2 busts within 50 hands. Like I said before, Martingale is just a tool. I have numerous plans set up after a bust. Normal Martingale player usually uses a sitting Duck approach that usually gave them a long winning streak and when the LoA finally strikes, all will be undone.
Yes, Martingale if not used correctly is really a bad way to play.
But again, who wants to win only a few units a day?

 

Craps, do what is suitable for you personally. As long as you are on the journey of winning back and more.

I really do believe baccarat is the best small business. If not the best, then one of the best.

One can start small, have the discipline and patience to build up the capital base. Then when you have build up your capital? do the negative Martingale as you promote or the OG. Both needs a larger capital base. But if one have no access to this larger capital, there is still the Lungyeh approach.

In life, we have to adapt. We deal with what we have. Last year’s highest paid CEO in the US was Broadcom’s Tan Hock Eng, a Malaysian now naturalised US citizen. His family was poor but he made his way round got a full scholarship to MIT, US and on graduation spent years in anonymity before he was discovered and the rest is history.

Doesnt mean when one is poor, one gives up living. Doesnt mean if we have access to smaller bankroll, its not doable.

In baccarat more than any other business, it is solely n our hands.

Stay blessed and peace to all

 

Not satisfied with the loss on OG on repeat bets, I allocated another 1000 for OG bets on Banker with unit bet of $5

Met the nemesis in the second shoe of asking. Plenty of Player repeats followed by 2B then Player repeats 4,5x then single alternates then P repeats. One shoe lose > 150 units. Then wiped out in the 3rd shoe.

I dont know if this is a chance occurrence but more likely a very regular occurrence in live play. Abandon exercise for now

 

$1000.00 only 200 units. Not nearly enough.

 

3rd party testing. Just trying to analyse the different mindset required to make this work.

In my different world, never in my wildest dreams would I lose -150 units per shoe.

Will keep in the back burner for now.

 

Its a weekend so some time to think.

The many miracles in the Bible like Moses parting the Red Sea, King Jehoshaphat in his victory against all odds against 3 marauding armies, Jesus making the blind see, the lame walk, turning water into wine, bringing back Lazarus from the dead 4 days later and many more and yet men of science continue to come out with reasons as to how these ‘miracles’ could have happened and that Jesus was a man of science. The blasphemy of it all.

The power and majesty of His Kingdom at work and men of science continue to find reasons to deny.

And so it is on the baccarat tables. The power of situational patters are there for all to see. Not once a year. Several times in a day session. Clusters of repeats. Dragon run of Player occurring several times in a shoe. Dragon run of Bankers. Long alternates BPBPBP....

Men of science, of the mathematics branch, continue to deride it and laugh at those who will submit to these situational patterns. Its random, they preach to THEIR choir (.....in the long run, they repeat).

‘Which is easier....’ Jesus said. ‘...:for me to make a lame man walk or for me to proclaim I am God?’

Which is easier, I ask. To believe there are situational patterns at work when you see repeats after repeats of P or runs of clusters or whatever that show patterns at work then to insist that everything is random in the long run?

 

No, I think he said what's easier making a lame man walk or your sins are forgiven. So when you think about it it's maybe just about us having an easier time forgiving our brothers than us making a sick person better. gnite!

 

The implication to his listening audience was that forgiving sins is something only God can do; which they were then accusing Him of.
Goodnight

 

People that want to use trends or patterns are all searching for a way to know when these things will happen and so they use math as an excuse to inform others that everyone should use math. Math never comes up with the prediction that they need and so they abandoned the notion of usefulness. But what they always fail to understand is that sometimes the trends & patterns work and sometimes they don't, thus confirming their mathematical expectations. They can't see a usefulness in the times that it works.

They are really saying that trends and patterns don't work all the time so you should steer clear of them. What strikes me as funny beyond reason is that if you restate it to them they can't see it. So I will. At times trends and patterns perform perfectly as an indicator of what appears to be prediction but is in fact just a useful coincidence. Now don't see the possibility of useful coincidence.

It's funny too. Blackjack card counters don't know when the useful coincidence for a deck reaching a favorable condition might be but they recognize it when they see it. It is then that they attack the formation that is in a working condition. It is no different when a trend & pattern player sees the favorable condition, that is caused by coincidence and not mathematical subtractive analyzation, and to attack that condition. This is scientific reasoning. You can know if trends or patterns are in a condition of working or not. Or, you can subject yourself to a self imposed rule that trends and patterns can't predict the future, park your car, cook your steak, make your mother-in-law happy, or get you "a baby's arm holding an apple."

 

Craps,

If you don't mind sharing your plan after a 5 marty bust, for us martingale players, it would be greatly appreciated. Again thank you for you contribution to this forum and stay safe and blessed.

 

After evaluation of my previous experiences with Negative Martingale (NM) and evaluation and discussions on OG, I have the following points to conclude:-

1 Having regard to the huge drawdowns that proponents of both NM and OG suggest, I firmly believe it is not suitable if one was to take a business approach to Baccarat.

2 From a serial entrepreneur and investor point of view, any businesses, be it a factory in nowhere or a trading company or restaurant or baccarat, has to mitigate risks. A negative drawdown of > 1000 units with a promised clawback? Is it not easier to clawback from -100? -20? Maybe my business brain is not suitable for baccarat.

3 A recent example of a hedge fund collapse with historical losses. Bill Hwang. @US$20 billion. When losing a bet ie he buys a position and the shares keep falling, he just keeps buying (draw an analogy, losing in Baccarat keep on betting with your system). No matter the loss he ends up winning. Over 3-4 years. And grew and grew. One day he took a position the shares keep on falling. He keeps buying. The shares keep falling. The banks asked for extra collateral. He couldn’t provide. And they liquidated everything. The trigger was a huge bet on a single company that kept on losing.

Most, if not all funds, have limited cut loss positions which do not equate to the drawdowns as in the OG. Believe me.

Staring at a -1000 units position looking for a grind to win back 1001 units? It would need a special type of person.

That said, if you are that type of person, stay in baccarat. Dont join the business world. You will scare the shite out of them! Or you have found the holy grail in which case, blessed are you!

 

Yeah but everything relative, right. Workin a large negative progression like og or star yer gonna be workin a lower value base unist bet say 5, 10. So ain't no differnece in real terms between gettin clipped for a 1000 unit with a 5$ base bet or gettin clipped for -10 units bettin flat with 500$ base flat units bet. Bottom line is you gotta have a decent bankroll to make any decent cake and yer gonna get clipped from times to times and her gonna face serious adversity in terms of real dollar, quids euro, whatever, hey hey.

 

I said it again and I'll say oit before often time the differnce between winnings cats and losings cats is balls and bankroll cuz cats lackin either or ain't got no slot to win well and regular long terms, hey hey.