Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

Macadamia nuts for you bro. True but even in relative terms the winning grinding process of winning the lower unit bet can be demoralising

 

For my birthday last year in April, my girlfriend and I had a 6 week trip/vacation planned out in Thailand. We planned it for months, then covid hit. We alternate our big vacation ideas every year, we still have Thailand on the back burner.

sorry to hear that, brother.

I’ve always been an entrepreneur. My first decent sized business was a night club about 17 years ago, it did good, but the building owner didn’t renew my lease because he wanted to sell and I wasn’t at a point in my life where I could purchase it. I had planned on restarting, but my interest went elsewhere.

I dabbled in a few things afterwards that never panned out to what I’d call a success, but the little ventures helped educate me a bit more. Then about 12 years ago I started a contracting business. I found a niche in converting old buildings into urban lofts, also did some home renovations and basically anything that could help me make a living. My company was modest, so most businessmen probably wouldn’t consider me to be a good businessman, I had a few employees and pretty steady work. Probably never cleared more than $125,000 in a year.
About 4 years ago, I had a bad breakup with a girl I had spent years building a life with. It set me back quite a bit and I moved into my buddies house to sort of start over. I had a bad year after that, and then in 2018, I took $300 to the casino with an idea I had been working on for weeks. I’ve turned that $300 into nearly 2 million since.

I don’t know any other business I could have done that in. I can’t think of any stock or crypto currency I could have invested in that would have yielded me that amount of profit.

I believe in the title of your post, this is the best small business.

When I started using my original trigger in 2018 with my small bankroll, it wasn’t fun and it wasn’t pretty. I spent plenty of 16 hour days at the casino making a little less that I would have working at my contracting business, but I was always looking at the bigger picture. And it’s the way you look at things that helps you accomplish your goals.

I could look at my bankroll of 2,000 units and say, okay, I’m using that to win 1 unit... but instead, I look at my bankroll of 2,000 units and say, “I’m using this to make $150,000 for myself this month.

 

Thank you for your post Jae. I suppose there are many ways to win at Baccarat as there are successful businesses.

When you believe firmly in something it is easier to promote with sincerity. There is much we can learn from you besides OG. The presentation is done with firmness without the condescension and aggression of some here.

It makes it believable and prompted me to try it out although my position as known to all is to be Scared to Lose. It was unsuccessful for me but I will re-look it again when travels to the B&M casinos are allowed for us Malaysians again. I try not to play in the Malaysian casino. Small place for business people.

Keep it up Jae. You deserve it. God bless

 

This is a epic post thanks.
Imho you have covered many aspects that haunts players.

Regardless of m m being preferred no bankroll = NO next session after a major drawdown.

As I posted I’m a flat bet protagonist . I have posted I have used many m m over the years from Marty to ladder etc.

The point I would like to make is this . If basically we all agree that we all try and achieve a minimum of say 4 units profit per day regardless of game hands played, how many days per week , in short each time we leave a gaming environment including online, ( lol all possible bases covered lol) as the basic aim of any player using whatever style they play etc.

As a Marty player you basically have a lower unit value, as some here stated they are $25 base unit 5 step Marty man so today your aim is 4 net won unit , in this instance $100 return on a initial bankroll of $800 rounded up. If you ladder bet the most popular seems to be the $5-$10 base unit bet and one assume you are also carrying a minimum bankroll of $750. Your return of 4 units is between $20-$40 min.

If you flat bet say at $500 a unit , no let’s call it a $100 unit. Your bankroll is $1000 for a ten unit $100 bet .This bankroll requirement is Well with in range of the previous two mentioned m m . The 4 unit returned is $400.

Here is the mental problem faced by many. Try and guarantee a win ( Marty) and lose all for trying to achieve a return of $100 @$25 units . The ladder betting going deep into the progressive bet and much more likely to fail to get 4 units profit, here by the way I prefer a Marty to a ladder. The progressive betting is allowing more bets to try amd achieve a supposed positive outcome. This is not a likely event as we all know. Hence the popularity of Marty, flat etc.

My personal business approach is high unit , above average strike rate = $ return in a usable range.
The crux of most players regardless of m m , bet selection criteria they use is invariably the low base unit is inadequate to sustain a meaningful ( to themselves) lifestyle in the real world . The cost of living, incremental bankroll imputation ( remember no back up bankroll no more play) , the costs associated with the casino business to play baccarat , travel, food, drink,tips, etc and you aim to win 4 units at $5 or $10 or $25 units to cover that. No ....not going to work ...

There in lies the truth as to why so many actually fail. It’s not always the emotional, unlucky or lucky phase, the inability to stick to one’s own rules etc etc , it’s actually the base unit returns are below the real world requirements based on our initial bankroll.
As per this thread it is a business mentality be you a factory owner or a self employed contractor. Even as an employee you should at least be able to grasp the simple business principles that are required to succeed.
Remember $1000 bankroll is only $300-$250 more than Marty or ladder betting bankroll require. Today you may not reach your 4 plus units but tomorrow you will get 7plus at $100 etc. cheers

 

Jae, out of curiosity. When you first started with $300, was it also the OG? Or an adaptation which you then continue to fine tune as you grow?

 

1) As in business, identify a model that suits your personality.

2) If you fail one time, do again. If you fail a second time, do again. Maybe if you fail a third time do again.

Remember Einstein, “Stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result”.

If a methodology fails you, stand back and analyse and correct what is not right and make it right. But don’t repeat the same mistake.

3) Jeff Bezos of Amazon has a philosophy of encouraging his people to take risks and make mistakes. But pleasr follow his whole philosophy. He went on to say “...but dont bet the whole house/farm on it”

Be circumspect as to the amount you put at risk each and every session. Dont bust that you cannot make a comeback.

4) A lot of us can do it. Making it in baccarat as a business. Dont let the maths people of negative expectancy stop you from achieving your dreams. Let them be. They think life is a matter of formulations. Lmfao. I think some of them began formulating when they were sucking their mother’s milk.

5) Its not easy. Just as in business (for those who have never been in business be forewarned and for those who have been in business you know how hard it is). More so in baccarat, everything is down to yourself.

 

When I played blackjack card counting (20 years ago approximately lol) before the continuous shuffle machine was installed at skippy island casino I meet a guy that dropped in on his way to his office every day. He would check out my table, watch for a increase in my bet then he would back bet my box / hand if it lost , he left immediately, if it won he would reinvest the win unit and pocket the initial investment , if that won again he would pocket some more and continue until we lost.

After some time we spoke as one does and I asked why he played as I posted . He explained that as the casino was on the way to work all his associated costs had been meet, travel ,lunches, wages earned etc. Anything earned was a profit in its truest sense of the word as he had an adequate bankroll from pocketed winnings to sustain his daily stop off at the table. I asked him why before work and not after as he would have more time etc. He replied this way forced him to leave as he had to get to his job by 9 am whereas after work has no time limits and he would lose all pocketed money etc.

After some time his base unit initial bet was larger than mine as I’m running the count and had to remain as close to under the blackjack radar counter as possible. Sometimes his end result for a few minutes work far exceeded my 8 hrs at the table. As I said the shuffle machine made me move on , although I did work out a program that potential bested it which I use now when ever I have my slutty days play. The man I alluded to actually continued to bet at the shuffle machine blackjack but I could not vouch for his success rate after that. I then went to baccarat and changed the time of day that I went to the casino, afternoon =more players to open more tables etc.

He made it a business

 

Yes agree, with that in mind you may not need to partake in the OG in the practical sense but more as an interested theorists, a mental exercise so to speak. You seem ok on your longtime present endeavour if I’m not mistaken. Cheers

 

My interest in OG is to explore the possibility that it is scaleable and replicable. Which means to say if a team of 2, lets call them Team A, can generate 500k per year, I can establish several teams to replicate the results.

Will no longer be a small business brother? Ideally... My job would be to pool investors’ funds, finding the right people to do the nitty gritty grind (and with no axe to grind with the providers of capital who do nothing except provide the funds) and arranging monitoring and share of profits. Nice.

 

Understood, economic scale. Would recommend stadium style workplaces as they are “not so policed” especially if you do the full reverse OG , the kpi are easily accessible as the individual player can request full computer printout of all wagers placed, then you ( your manager) can vet the play to ensure no wayward bets are played, we are dealing with money and people, gamble and money etc . Good luck. Cheers

 

What is a full reverse OG?

 

Just saw this.
As per poster Jae thread this forum.
There is a YouTube video I saw some years ago ,I will try and track down for you , of a guy and his wife doing this or something similar ish . As a sole trader I dismissed it even though I have played more than one screen at the stadium at the same time, that is to harvest the long run of wins I get often puts me above the table limit.
I will look

Cheers

 

Crazy thing, I’ve known for over a decade that you could beat baccarat with a large OG bankroll. The problem was, all the casinos typically had a minimum of at least $10, I had convinced myself that I needed at least 3-5,000 units to feel safe getting over the hump. So I was looking at needing a bankroll of at least $30,000 to start—which I didn’t have. Also, my local casinos only had live tables, so betting in increments of $1.00 wasn’t allowed, had to be increments of $5.00. I broke the game down in hundreds of ways, trying to look at the obvious while also thinking outside the box as far as I could. Every idea I had I would test to see if OG would survive 40-60 units. After analyzing and testing hundreds of trigger ideas, I stumbled upon a YouTube video about randomness that turbo genius posted on beee years ago. The video inspired me to look at shoes in a different way (a way that I don’t mind sharing, but it’s a really long winded post that I don’t feel like tackling at the moment). Anyways, my trigger was based on the random differences between the current shoe you’re playing versus the precious shoe before it. I had read somewhere that there are over 44 billion combinations of how a baccarat shoe can play out, and actually that number seems pretty low now that I’m thinking about it. But we’ll stick to that, with the idea that a baccarat shoe has 44 billion combinations on how it could play out, then the odds of 2 shoes being identical back to back would have to be 1 in trillions. I think we can all agree that without any manipulations, there’s no way a shoe could be identical to the shoe before it. So my next step was to see what I could even do with this information. It’s not like it feasible to run an 80 tier martingale. Haha.

so I set out on a journey to see if I could exploit any type of information from this. And long story short, I found a trigger that worked well in my testing.

here’s the kicker and what will probably make people think I’m crazy: the very first thing I have to do when arriving for the casino was to track the first shoe. No bets. And as well all know, a live shoe takes at least an hour to play out. It’s the second shoe that I wait for my trigger. I used a bankroll of 30 units to win 1 unit a shoe. I would do this for a few days until I made enough to double my unit size. After that, I would simply continue adding value to my unit size. And at a certain point I would expand my bankroll requirements from 30 units to 40 units, and then into 60 units. After a few months, I was up $78,000 when I booked a big trip to Vegas. I performed well there and also played my first stadium game. I fell in love with the speed and accuracy. It’s still a live dealer, but I don’t have to walk around clocking tables, no more carrying around chips, it was faster and much more efficient.

I did well there, and I was inspired to move to Vegas, but after doing some research online, I chose Mohegan Sun and Foxwood in Connecticut as my base of operations. They are two of the largest casinos in the country and have very large sections of stadium baccarat.

I loaded my pickup truck and moved out here, rented an apartment and got to work with my plan. Made nearly $600,000 before covid hit and closed down the casino for a couple months. I took that as an opportunity to change things up a bit. Modifications to my method have constantly changed through the last 3 years. But mostly just with more betting opportunities and a bigger unit size bankroll. During the shutdown of the casino, I took that as an opportunity to house shop.

I found a beautiful 4 bedroom beach house for $700,000 that I fell in love with, but I knew that I still didn’t have the cash and I wanted to buy it with cash. I flew my best friend from the Midwest out to Connecticut with me and started teaching him how I play OG, from the way I track results, keep records to even how I make it look like I lost on paper to the casino. We spent weeks practicing and getting ready for battle. When the casino opened up, I made $450,000 in 2 months and put in a $675,000 cash offer for my house and got it. This house was also an investment. It was a million dollar home, and will be again when I’m done with it.

We constantly reset our bankroll and our unit sizes, and floated between $25-100 just constantly pulling back wins until we reached the point of locking it down at $100 units because at this point it’s just silly to go back down. We’ve made our bankroll back several times over. It’s been a wild ride.

as far as the math guys go....

I get it, it seems so cynical when they chime in to remind you that baccarat is a house game. Makes me wonder why they are even here. We get it, we’ve heard it.

with that said... they are right. As much as I don’t want to hear it, if they want to talk numbers, I get the math part, and they are correct on that part. Baccarat is a negative expectation game aside from card counting sone bonus bets and the magical tie that I doubt anyone actually tries to count. But strictly talking about a player and a banker bet—they both favor the house. Doesn’t matter which side you bet on, it is designed to lose in the long run. I am basing this on flat betting, but the math applies to systems as well—to a degree. I know that sone people don’t want to hear that, but I think in order to beat the game that everyone playing it has to accept that fact.

with that said: martingale. Sure, people love and hate it. But it’s the second greatest idea, right behind the grand martingale. In theory, these systems will always win. But of course, you’d need a damn near infinite bankroll and a house that would accept your billion dollar bets. So with the house edge and the inability for even Jeff Bezos to cover the biggest bet he might run into, it’s not practical and can’t and in my opinion shouldn’t be considered a tool in this game. This is the beauty about OG, it too would always recover like the martingale, just not instantly, it can take time, but it will recover. That only applies if you are betting on banker. If you’re betting on player, then mathematically, there is a possibility that player could go in an infinite grind that never recovers. This is because of the math. Because of the drawing rules, banker is a lopsided quarter that wins more coin tosses than player. It wins more than 50% of the time. I’m not teaching you anything you don’t already know, but it’s because of that advantage, that it would always recover a grind. But we are talking about infinite here.

of course we have the commission. This is what the game uses to try and even out the two bets as much as they can, but it still favors the banker even with commission tacked on. Without commission baccarat would be an advantage game. Flat betting banker you would win in the long run.

so we are ignoring commission, our goal is to just win more. Because the real business of baccarat isn’t so much about bet selection, or intuition, it’s just.... how do we beat commission. Since I bet on banker every bet, I’m not worried about winning less hands, by betting banker every time, I’m ensuring long term that I’ve made the best decision. My real opponent is overcoming the 5% commission. So in order for us to do that, we just need to win more than the expectation. This is where I rely on OG and MM. when I say that OG will always recover, that’s in the infinite realm, in my small world, it will wipe me out, most likely a few times in my lifetime. But this is an expectation that is in my business plan and it won’t be nothing but a very small speed bump in the grand scheme of things.

 

You know Jae, for those who believe or want to believe, instead of listening to an old record like me repeating the mantra in so many ways, I sure hope that your story would be an inspiration to them all -
Baccarat is the best small business.

And one can start it with less than $1000. God bless us all.

 

44 billion? Not even close. How about 5 Zillion ways of B wins P wins and Ties.
5,000,000,000,000,000. This number is considered infinite.
Just a suggestion. Have you ever thought of the 500+ year old Avant Dernier bet selection? At one time at the old Aladdin in Las Vegas, people would invest in a group playing this. It's simple bet follow before last. The terrible 2 s will kill it but I think P dominant couple with single B is more deadly than terrible 2's . One of the main reason your system work as you claimed is Bankroll and nothing else come to think of it. Good Luck!

 

Jae, so if you run into a huge drawdown like say -150 units in a shoe, you dont bat an eyelid and continue it as a series into the next shoe? Or even if you change table, you continue it as a series until it is +1?

Can you or have you ever restart as a new series and forget the huge negative drawdown? Or that is not part of the methodology?

 

Dear Jae, please be succinct. English is not my first language.

 

Quote form Jae
"I’ve turned that $300 into nearly 2 million since.

I don’t know any other business I could have done that in. I can’t think of any stock or crypto currency I could have invested in that would have yielded me that amount of profit."

There's a trading contest held by one of the cryptocurrency broker from Indonesia...the first winner had a 117,000% ROI in one month...

Just for consideration....

 

It would be like dancing with myself, one step forward and one step back. My daily goal is 200 units. If I stopped or quit whenever I was -150, I would lose almost once a day. Drawdowns over 100 don’t phase me, it’s 5% or my bankroll, no doubt it sucks because it means I’m about to work for my money. On the rare occasions that it goes deeper than -500, I start getting a little stressed, but I don’t think it’s because of the money at stake, it’s keeping up with the numbers and working fast while trying not to make a single mistake. When you hit big numbers, mistakes are easy and can be costly. Fortunately I’m working with 3 people that have calculators on their phones and we are steady trying to keep it in check a good 30 seconds before a bet has to be made. I’ve gotten really good at keeping my emotions in check, but I do have a mini celebration every time we finish a series successfully.

I would never stop or restart a grind if I can help it. In the last 8 months, there have been a handful of times that we had to stop in the middle of a grind. The majority of the times was because they literally shut the table down in the middle of our play. Usually at the end of a shoe, but in those instances we were anticipating the next shoe to continue going. This is rare, it’s usually for for them to do a deep clean or maybe there was a technical difficulty, shuffler or computer issues. I’ve never inquired. Fortunately for us, the few times this has happened, we weren’t out but maybe 20-60 units. We usually stick around for 2-3 hour afterwards to see if it resumes, I’d not we cut our loss and leave because it’s not worth our time to only play one shoe.

We don’t carry a grind to another shoe, nor do we carry it onto another day. As to whether this would work or not—it’s possible, but I’m not going to try. I like isolating games to the same shoe, the same decks of cards. I look at that particular shoe and those cards to be a session, within that session, I’m looking at it to be mildly balanced. (Doesn’t mean it will be, and it probably rarely is) but if it’s considered superstition on my part, it may be, but it works for me.
I think I answered all of your questions. I do continue a series to the next shoe if necessary, which it is more times than not, sometimes it can go a couple shoes.

I’ll post an idea for someone if they are interested in trying to complete a series in one shoe, or carry deficits from one shoe to another.

create a goal, we’ll say 5 units. Using a bankroll of 40 units at say $5.00 a unit, try and reach your goal of 5 units a shoe and wait fir the next shoe before starting a new session. You would need to win 9 shoes to make your initial bankroll, but chances are, you won’t do it completely before busting 40 units, at this point, you then go to a second phase of 40 units whatever range you want. If you use $20 units, you would need to win two shoes to make back your initial bankroll at which point you would reset and go back to $5.00 units.

the problem with this method is that it too requires a big bankroll, depending on how you size your units, you may need several phases. You are heavily favored to win 5 units before busting a 40 unit bankroll, but it will happen, and it can happen two shoes in a row and so on.

the idea I’m putting on the table most likely won’t work, but it can with a large bankroll and proper MM, but at that point, you might as well bet and manage your bankroll the way that I do.

the only reason I bring this particular idea up is so that you can play around with the theory and possibly tweak it in a manner that would work for you and the types of risk you are willing to take.

 

Thanks Jae. Really interesting. Testing things out. How’s the going? The usual?