Baccarat Baccarat - the best small business

Uber has ceded South East Asia to Grab and they both have an understanding they will not encroach on each other’s territory. Hahaha. Lmfao.

Small potatoes like us can have the world as our oyster.

 

I will try to answer this and let Jae correct me if I am wrong. I think what Jae is talking about is the -20 is a virtual total loss. At that point, he will start playing the series forward AS THOUGH he has lost -20 . So he would make the next bet of what ever amount is needed when that count was -20 and win until the series produces 1 unit win on paper. At this point his true wins should be +21 minus commission.
It's hard to believe he waits for -20 and just win 1 unit and wait again for another -20. The unit win is on paper but the real win includes the action needed to recoup the virtual -20.

 

Yea Jae explained as much.

What are your thoughts on the OG Banker bet only?

 

I have run the OG against what I do , my selection criteria. A couple of things of note :

1) I work a stadium screen RNG, that has a $1000 maximum and $10 minimum, you can use $1 increments after the minimum $10 bet is established . At my usual bet unit not possible to stay below table max.
2) I don’t consider it worth my while to drop to a minimum bet level to achieve less of an income at a longer time frame with a higher percentage drawdown

Please note this is using OG my way AND NOT Jae recommend method.

3) for the examples I ran at a 150 plus hands a few times the high drawdown was 250+ at $10 units using a $410 basis bet. ( 41 units) yes it did win eventually at around 480$ per hand. Using a $2,$4,$5,$6,$8 units not worth it imho in regards to my kpis.

4) I’m a sole trader and no breaks, no team, bet building, plus decision making, plus book keeping not my favourite way to spend time. I previously posted my strict rules on another thread, stadium 2019 , using OG would go against nearly all my rules for my selection criteria.

5) I have no need to change my selection method as I deem it profitable enough for me.

In saying that , I would like to say the method Jae posts is a doable method for those of you that wish to change , drop , discard your current semi successful/ total losing method and are willing to put in some effort as discussed on various threads this forum by myself and others then it’s really worth your while.

6) Had I not found success flat betting as posted then I would entertain Jae method and OG. I would also like to lol and I mean rlmao at those of you that had critical posts for people that flat bet and now you entertain the OG method lol
Not directed at you lungyeh not that I recall you ever being critical of flat betting.

7) Most readers here baulk at a lot of ideas discussed this thread and other threads as too hard , undo able, totally reliant on luck , big bankroll, etc I would recommend those of you that have posted as such save yourself the time, trouble, effort and money and not try the OG or poster Jae method using it. Hopefully that way we ( I ) don’t have to read the negative cry cry poor me posts.

8) As a team run exercise , yes in my opinion it’s very doable . I would run it completely like a 3 shift 24 hour 5 day week factory set up , strict guidelines and zero tolerance for any mistakes. Instant dismissal etc. Probably the hardest part would be separating the employee from the mobile phone/ watch phone for 4 hrs minimum.

Good luck lungyeh if you get the team up and running. Look forward to reading positive results you may achieve.

Aptly this thread is titled small business

cheers

 

After 29 years of observing the comings and goings of win streaks, and my propensity to learn lessons slowly, the only steps in my MM have evolved into the fact that any super callosal win streak will occur at least once in just about every 300 spins at Roulette. Armed with that knowledge, experience, and a critical thinking education in trends & patterns recognition I see no need to put my head in a bag and ignore the opportunities offered through coincidental situational common randomness observations. "Bet big when you are doing well, bet small any other times." I was told that at the door from an old stranger when I asked him what the secret to all this gambling stuff was, more than 30 years ago. He was 100% correct. I'm done with elaborate complicated mechanical, put your mind in neutral, progressions of any kind. If I'm in a swarm of two winning guesses in a row or better then I might use ( 2, 1 ) as a useful grinding tool. Same goes for a swarm of 3 in a rows, ( 3, 2, 1 ) .

The smart player knows that wins and losses come and go and that you must know how to win and how to lose as these changes occur. Oscar's Grind boldly ignores agility. Why would you use a simple minded system during a win streak? It makes ZERO sense.

 

My own opinion is Jae is somewhat playing something equivalent to a 11 step Marty that haven't busted YET.
Forget about the -20. If both OG and Marty starts from step 1, both are 1 unit bet. From 2 nd bet onwards OG is a series of bets whereas Marty is always 1 bet. So, for -20 , he is starting from 4th Marty going to 5th once the count goes -31. For an 11 step Marty it's a 2048 units investment. He is pretty close to this drawdown. Wonder what he will do next.
Couple of things rather contradicting. One minute he was disregarding the negative EV which we all do meaning he is not concern about the miniscule House Edge but giving the reason for betting Banker ONLY because of the miniscule EDGE? So, one minute it's not Math and another minute it is?

I am not critical here. Just pointing out how choice is a very individual one regardless whether it makes sense or not. By betting Bank only means he is going for that small extra Probability but where gambling is concerned ODDS supercedes Probability. He has to consider the Payout Ratio and it seems he together with Soxfan do not see it.
A long chop is bad at the beginning because it will augment his wagers Single B with small P runs is even more damaging. Long P's comes next but depending on whether it is early or late in the game.
However the good side is he will not miss any B runs which is the SAVIOR of his approach.
Going head to head with a negative progression like OG playing every hand and beating the House for millions using a Sitting Duck selection?
Maybe he knows something I don't know. I hope I am wrong.

 

As a side note to this thread and it’s context, content and general structure of methods I would suggest a book to read that may be of interest.
The title is

The way of the turtle , by Curtis Faith.
Cheers

 

Question for Jae....

Why not just start your first shoe with an “assumed” -20/5 grind and skip waiting on the shoe to develop it? After all, you carry a deficient grind over to another shoe if you don’t reach your goal in the first (or present) shoe.

 

By starting with 1 unit and winning 1 unit by 1 unit does not interest Jae when he is ready to have drawdowns totally more than Thousand units.
What he is doing now is he wins 21 units or less after commission every time that -20 goes to +1 on paper.

 

Who would need a progression and risk more $$ to win less $$ if accuracy on Bet Selection is desirable?
According to you, accuracy on bet selection can be mastered or shall I say a calculated guess. That means there is exploitation in Baccarat.
WHO WOULD WANT LICE ON THEIR FULL HEAD OF HAIR?

 

Still waiting for you to blow up. So you have no idea what a win streak or a losing streak looks like. That's a byproduct of using mechanical rule based systems.

BTW, it's never a calculated guess. Thank you for getting down into the weeds on hair brained ideas. ( "WHO WOULD WANT LICE ON THEIR FULL HEAD OF HAIR?" )

 

That's why you got to understand people like me that don't have the skill
to time bet selections like you, to use a progression like Marty for it's probability together with Hit & Run to win The way of a Turtle.
I would try my best to blow up the few hundred amassed series bankroll that I accumulated throughout all these years.
By the way, there is nothing mechanical about my approach. It's decided by Math based findings of imbalances which fluctuates.

 

I have been losing as my mental state is fluctuating between LY approach and OG on Banker. Lmfao.

State of confusion influenced by the so called preponderance of Banker and the LY style of going with pattern flow.

It’s challenging when a shoe like this would yield me a fortune but end up me having to lose. And even break my rule of 3 losses or 3/4 losses, stop.

 

Randomness my foot.

 

That's a good one. Math fluctuates. Yes, you are definably on the path to riches. Every year we get one of you guys with that "Swing on a Star" theme in the air.

 

It's a dream come true for Player domination.

 

You are correct, sir. Thank you.

 

C

Craps, I truly love all of your replies. I think you have a really good grasp of what we do and even the, we’ll still call them criticisms are actually good observations on your part. English is not my second language, but I still sucks at trying to explain things, haha.

the math part, I’m going to attempt to explain my view on it again; though it might still sound contradictory on my part. Apologies in advance. So yes, I do understand that banker is -ev with commission. I don’t doubt this one bit. It’s a fact. The reason I like banker and choose banker is because it wins more than 50% of the time. This keeps my drawdowns in the long run way smaller than betting on player. The 5% commission doesn’t stop me from winning more hands, it stops me from winning more money. I’m not smart enough to really know why I make more money than I spend on commission. Even though I start at -20 or more, -20 is what... 1% of my bankroll. So mathematically I shouldn’t be overcoming that other 4% maybe?

I like your martingale analogy, and while I think it’s easy to compare to an 11 step because the unit size is close, 2000 - 2048. I think that OG out performs the martingale in many ways.

since august of 2020, I have survived everything with a 2,000 unit bankroll. Only crossing the table max one time which was manageable with one additional person on my team. In that time span, I’ve seen 27 player IAR 1 time. 21 players IAR. 19 players, 18 players, 17 player 2 times. 16 players, 15 players 3 times 14 players 6 times.

with an 11 step, waiting for 4 losses before performing like you compared to -20, we would have survived the 14’s and below, but failed 9 times. Losing over 18,000 units.

If the math was correct and similar, then it would just say that I have been VERY lucky, and don’t get me wrong. I do attribute some success to luck. I feel like we’ve been long overdo for a 2,000 unit wipeout by now.

and I’m not telling you anything you don’t already know, this is for anyone else contemplating running a Marty versus OG. Performing an 11 tier Marty with our unit size isn’t possible, well, it is, but we’d need a bigger team. The 11th bet is over $100,000 using $100 unit size base. In order to survive as long as we have you would need a martingale that is at least 22 tiers. Write off the time we went 27 players IAR as a loss, since martingale can make about 30 units a shoe, and we don’t.

Back on point though, when it comes to odds and probability, I will go ahead an admit that I don’t understand. Why am I winning?

is the 5% commission supposed to keep me at the house’s -ev? Like if we ran a simulation using OG or even martingale on an infinite amount of hands with an infinite bankroll. We know that they will both win. Using martingale doe this question, infinite everything. Does the 5% commission turn the martingale profit into a negative? I can’t imagine if so, but I’m relying on someone smarter than me on this one.

 

I think craps answered this better than I can. I know that people do this with other systems such as d’alembert and Fibonacci. But ultimately it just potentially cuts down on your bankrolls stamina.

Sure, a martingale player could just start his bet as if he were on the third tier, but I doubt he would because he knows that he loses security in his method, and the reward isn’t worth the risk.

if a flat bettor has a bankroll of 100 units betting $5, he has a minimum of 20 bets he can make. This will help him in deep
Swings and he has has a better shit of making a profit I guess, if his bet selection is good or the table turns to his favor, whatever. If he spits his bankroll up to 4 units valued at $25, he may end up winning more, but he can also lose very fast and has no staying power.

this all just comes down to whatever your method is. And starting a shoe at a deficit is taking away my staying power, while it also increases the potential for profit, had I done this before, it would have wiped me out on one occasion.

 

It's your version on How to B or P and it's Fallacy based with no association to Math reasonings. It's again 50/50
It only works when it is working and Vice Versa.
Wins and losses comes in ways that you can't imagine.
Ask Lungyeh what is Chase Kill.