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Baccarat How to Spot a BAD System

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Frank Kneeland, Mar 25, 2021.

  1. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Very short lived. I believe the $35,000 seed money last two weeks. My brain is duration insensitive so I could be wrong about that.
     
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  2. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Probably not. I only managed that baccarat team as a favor to my Mother. And as I said before it ended in tears. If I was going to do anything in the world of professional gambling again it would involve partnering with guys I've know for all my life in a small collaboration. A good promo could get me out of retirement I guess.

    When it comes to gambling I'm ready to sit in my rocking chair and shout at the kids for dressing weird and playing their music too loud.

    There are some interesting economics of scale with teams and gambling. I sat down and figured out once that it takes about 6 players to = what you can make on your own and the time it takes to manage them precludes playing. So basically, you're only marginally increases shat you could make by yourself at seven players. This all assumes you have a play that allows infinite numbers of people.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2021
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  3. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Frank, the question really was to prompt your opinion as to whether you endorse the OG on Banker bet approach that you would take a share of profits or you do not endorse it and there would prefer to be paid by wages? Going back to your situation, a blast from the past..
     
  4. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Oh, I don't have an opinion on that. It is my understanding that there is a complex card counting method of determining when betting the tie is in your favor on the next bet. It is also my understanding that it only results in predicting an edge on a scant few hands every couple of entire shoes. Before the current way casinos are shuffling, there was also a group beating (with positive expectation--not good fortune) Baccarat using an advanced method of shuffle tracking. Not sure that was entirely legal as they used computers.

    These are the only two methods I'm aware of that legitimately raise the return over 100%
     
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  5. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    That's why online casinos cut off at least two decks from the play and very often rejecting some bets at certain spots. Coincidentally most rejected bets seem to be more right than wrong.

    as.
     
  6. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Maybe it's just me...but it almost seems like the folk that run casinos are trying to make money.

    Good for me...most of them are idiots.
     
  7. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Say some players have definitely built the attitude to be smarter than casinos, no matter how certain is the math edge such players must fight against.

    as.
     
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  8. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Could you at least explain to me the use of the term "-EV game"? I may have a different definition.

    To me this term means a game which, if never played before, has the expectation of loss. Loss is more likely than win. (more likely) Even to me that is NOT the same as saying you can't beat it. We are saying that trying to do so would be a less than optimal venture. Even if we choose a game where only 1 in million people were likely to come out ahead, it would still not preclude the possibility of that single person winning.

    In my opinion anyone who invests their time and money in something with such a low probability of success, ignoring the rotting skeletons of their fellow fallen travelers along the way, is at best, "imprudent".

    Let the record show I did not say, "-EV games can't be beaten". What I said was that +EV games are easier to beat than negative ones.

    If you'd like to argue that point, I would also like to bet on the winner of the argument:)
     
  9. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I know nothing but "math zombies" (just love that term--keep thinking --brains, brains but there are none to be found in casinos...LOL.) that have done nothing else but gamble professionally for 40+ years to the exclusion of all else. They are now happily retired. Baccarat was not their game. The fact that the people I know let hard math guide all their decisions is not in question. It's still not a lifestyle I would recommend. It is unsatisfying, no matter how much you make.

    I think some people get wrapped up in the excitement of winning at something where everyone else is losing. It makes them feel special. Then after they have won, they realize, in their quiet moments when no one else is around--yes they won when they should have lost--but they could have done more and better at something else.

    Just my opinion.
     
  10. Lungyeh

    Lungyeh Well-Known Member

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    Its funny. Its like a mantra, repeated for many to feel schadenfreude about it.

    My question then is, can you recommend a positive EV game? Then everyone here can play the game and definitely win.

    My position is baccarat is the most positive negative expectancy game. At the risk of repeating myself, the slight negative is to give you the privilege of:-

    1) providing the environment for you to play
    2) you can bet any amount you want subject to the table limits; you can abstain from betting even
    3) you can bet anytime you want; at 3pm or at 3am

    Feel free to add.

    So I wait with bated breath someone who can recommend a positive expectancy game that will definitely win. So I can disengage myself from my commitments and pile it on there. Please share?
     
  11. soxfan

    soxfan Well-Known Member

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    The baccarats is the + EV if yer bettin bankers only, hey hey.
     
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  12. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I agree with you. I believe baccarat is certainly one of the highest return negative games in the casino. I'm a progressive guy. I play (or played) normally negative games when the jackpot got up high enough to overcome and surpass the hold. They are still out there on every type of game. Too many to count.

    Your BIGGEST clue that something might on occasion be in your favor is the speed at which it goes up. Anything less than 1% meter-rise is probably never going to be worth playing. (THERE ARE EXCEPTIONS)

    1. Find Progressive
    2. Calculate return of game
    3. Calculate probability of JP
    4. Clock Meter-Rise
    5. Figure out how much the JP needs to overcome the hold and play when you have an edge.

    Saying it that way sounds easy...LOL. Peace.
     
  13. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    No I think you are right. I would like to bet on the bank. Specifically I would like to bet that Wells Fargo does something it shouldn't again:)

    Be well...
     
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  14. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Just an addendum. Imagine a casino has a 98% return video poker machine and they put a 1% meter on it. They are making 1% overall and the machine is returning 99% total. Still not a play. But every now and then the JP doesn't get hit as often as expected and the next thing you know it it's return is over 100%. Doesn't even cost the casino money. You just have to scrape the cream off the top.
     
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  15. asymbacguy

    asymbacguy Active Member

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    Frank, definitely you are the guy every gambler should talk with before putting a dime at the tables.

    Since you are Vegas placed and providing you want to spend some time talking about baccarat, it would be my pleasure to get a drink with you.

    as.
     
  16. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'll try this again for the "mathBoyz," it all started with that one a long time ago.

    Let's try Arithmetic:

    In an even chance game at American Roulette your are expected to average out about 47 wins to 53 losses for every 100 bets placed. From that anyone is expected to realize that you can't do better than that in the long run, so why even try?

    But what if you can see a situation where you can see losses pile up in obvious swarms as well as wins too?

    Let's say that you flat bet the chaos and you lose your 5 or 6 losses over wins in any 100 bets placed. But that you also bet the smallest amount during a 20 spin losing streak. You also bet the largest amount during a 20 spin win streak. Once these conditions broke down and changed back to chaos you went back to your medium sized flat bet.

    So say you lost 16 of the 20 bets placed at the losing streak. You also won 16 of the bets placed at the win streak.

    The Arithmetic:

    60 bets placed at $25 (the chaos bets)

    You lost 4 more than you won. So you netted -$100 from that phase.

    You lost (16 - 4) = 12 bets at $5 for a total loss of -$60.

    You won (16 - 4) = 12 bets at $100 for a total of +$1,200.

    $1,200 (win streak phase)
    -$60 -- (losing phase)
    -$100 ( chaos phase)
    ------------
    $1,040 --- net profit.

    Now even in the evolution from mathBoyz to mathNazi, to mathZombie a room temperature IQ recipient should be able to conceptualize this.

    In the past these math geniuses only defense against this simple logic problem is to chant that nobody can recognize a win streak. I thought that was profoundly funny because pit bosses seem to have acquired this skill as a perquisite.

    If you want you can say that the best you can do is win only half your bets during a win streak. That will form the foundation for "pretzel logic." It's fun to put ideas into the minds of the easily manipulated.
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
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  17. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I actually understood everything you said just then. Can can I get a "hell yeah". Well I was pleased.

    So what I would need to evaluate the efficacy of this technique, is the exact method you are using to "recognize a winning streak".

    If you are familiar with the scientific method, which does not necessarily have to involve math, the double acid test is the ability of a theory to make predictions and its ability to be replicated. It's in the WIKI description: I take no credit.

    You'll be happy to know that you haven't given me enough information to confirm or refute anything.

    If you can recognize a wining streak, that would certainly work. Can't dispute that and wouldn't want to try. Without knowing your method of achieving this, I can't comment one way or another.

    ~FK
     
  18. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    I had one question. You stated that:
    How do you know this? In other words how do you know they seem to have acquired this skill?

    It's interesting to me as I can think of no way to know or determine it. Fell free to call me dense or whatever you like. It's how I'm feeling right now anyway.

    Oh P.S. My new job has me making educational material for 3-10 year olds. I'm trying to teach probability (of course I am). If you can prove to me that any of your less mathematical reasoning skills work, it would be my pleasure and honor to include them (and credit you) in what I'm working on. This foundation is multi-national and your insight could get passed on all over the world. I mean that. And I am not being disingenuous in anyway.
     
  19. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    A streak begins with the first matching bet after the trigger and ends with the first loss.


    One is either in a trend or not.





    ND
     
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  20. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    They walk around and watch the activity of the players in their section. Every time I hit a super win streak they come over and just stand and watch. I get almost undivided attention. It happens every time. They want to know what is happening. They want to see the bets. I know they are also checking out the dealer too. It's their job to know what is happening.
     
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