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The reason I ask is because your sessions seem like they would constantly present good opportunities for a separate large/bankroll to capitalize on these deeper grinds situations with even possibly a much more appealing and set R:R.... similarly how you trigger at -20 this trigger would be much deeper and with a few added set parameters

 

Jae for some reason my reply was marked as spam... I was simply asking because similar to your trigger of -20 your session present the opportunity to have someone else at your table with a much deeper trigger and separate bankroll to then attack the mean reversion with a set and more appealing R:R

 

Of course this OP would be sitting on their hands most of the time but then again... that is how the best in any business exponentially increase their gains... when not to bet is also never discussed

 

I totally get what you’re saying. We do have a side roll for something similar but different. It’s $25 units. But I’ve actually been working on a write up that I believe is covering exactly what you are talking about.

I. My write up I mention, that if you are playing 2,000 units, and say you are betting $10 units with whatever virtual trigger you use if you use one, like mine at -20. Instead of betting $10, just bet $8.00

if you get to that point of -100, you can tack on an extra dollar, and if you get to -200, tack on another dollar. So yes, when it reverts, you’re up an extra $100-200 on top of your initial series goal.

we have something very similar on many occasions.

For about the whole month of December we were betting $70 units after our initial trigger of -20, we would add $5.00 when it hit -100, $10 more when it hit -200, and $15 more when it hit -300 at which point we were betting $100 units. Works amazing sone days. But the days when our grinds are smaller we don’t profit quite as much. But thanks for putting it back in my head. I think I’m gonna bring this up tomorrow and talk about doing the -100 thing again.

 

I’m not qualified to answer this, asymbac perhaps.

Taking a swing at it, I would say this.... first off, I’m just going to eliminate ties altogether. Even if I had a really good idea of what cards were left, I don’t think it would be an advantage play when you calculate time into the equation. I can elaborate more on that, but I just don’t think anyone should be focusing on the tie bet.

Thing is, we don’t know what hands are coming out of the shoe in the beginning, and even after we see the results (tie aside) I don’t think we’d know what to do with the information if we had it. Example:

assume that we know the last 4 cards were two face cards and an 8 and a 9. Okay, this is one of the rare occasions I would be on player. The drawing rules aren’t going to apply in this case and it really is a 50/50 bet on who wins, so I would pick the side with no commission.

but even more advanced. I’d you knew, like the dealer showed you the remaining 20 cards in a deck and shuffled them and played them out, the only way we could make this an advantage play would be by creating a counting system based off of the drawing rules. This method would probably give us a 1% edge over the house. And we’d probably need a really awesome computer to do the counting. As our regular human brains might be able to determine if it was advantageous for banker by staying focused on 6’s. Again, I don’t know. But a full blown discussion about it might be interesting, but at the end of it, I don’t think anyone could possibly come up with a way to first, “figure out what’s left in the remaining deck,” and even if we knew what those cards were 100%, how we would factor them into where they would be most appropriate to make it advantageous.

if you are thinking in simpler terms about balanced and unbalanced shoe, like if 30
Players were dealt and only 15, what does that mean for the rest of the shoe... well, nothing. It has no determination on what’s left. If I took your question in the wrong direction and my reply was out of the context of the question, rephrase it, I might have misunderstood. Cheers!

 

When not to bet is easy, every hand. Don’t ever bet, *tips my hat to the math boyz*

but I believe the house she is geared towards the long run of flat betting, just also happens to end up with the same mathematical results as most systems.

If one were to make only one bet at any given time, then I would suggest betting on banker.

Here’s the kicker. And I can’t mathematically explain this....

According to most people that are hung up on the odds and the statistics and the EV, betting 2,000 units on one banker proposition should be no different than using OG to make 10% a day doe 10 days. Well, actually, doing it for 10 days as I’m saying would result in less profit as I don’t think I’m going to win every hand at 10% a day doe 10 days in a row. So flat betting 2,000 units should be more profitable than grinding it out the way that I do.

except I would not only not feel comfortable with that one bet, I’m only 50% confident I’ll win it. As to where I’m more than 99% confident I’ll win that amount over the course of 10 days doing what I currently do.

But if they say that my odds are the same, then I have a 50% chance of losing a 2,000 unit bankroll in 10 days. Which at my rate would be like successfully flat betting and winning 90 times in a row.

I cannot explain this. I don’t think anyone is that lucky. And that is why I 100% support the use of this method.

 

Yea mate the thing with your strategy it eliminates 50% of the bet selection process (50% what and 50% when to bet). You eliminate the what aspect by going banker which the numbers and theory is there to support but am positive you can definitely improve on the when aspect or timing of your bets. What you are doing right now is working my friend keep doing it and improving along the way. For what is working right now however, it seems you have ripe opportunities almost daily to capitalize on great deviations that alone is intriguing to me.... you’re main casino you play at is in Conn?

 

How about instead of focusing on what’s left in the show we focus on what just came out the last let’s say 5 hands, and what’s to come within the next 2-3 hands? What if you could give each side player or banker a value based on the cards they’ve received throughout the shoe? Similarly giving a value to opposite and repeats?

It’s like BJ we see a lot of As and 10s out for few hands in a row this is not likely to last...

 

What is everyone's findings, if any, regarding the cards being dealt in direct relation to our BS? Shouldn't this be as important if not more than the ending outcome these cards in fact decide? Eager to explore this topic with you all....

 

This is definitely asymbac territory. I believe he has several blog posts on betselection discussing what you are asking.

I’ll answer it, but I’m not sure you’ll like my answer. Unfortunately, you would need a computer to count baccarat for the player banker bets, and from what I remember reading about this on wizards of odds years ago is that the advantage is so small and rare that’s it’s pointless. The reason it’s successful in blackjack is because we know the dealers draw rules. So one example of the advantage play in Bj would be this. If our count is high, that means we have more tens and aces from in the deck. So if the dealer has a 3 showing and we have 12, normally we would hit that because basic strategy suggests we should. In normal circumstances hitting a 12 against a 3 is the best play in the long run; however, if the count is high, then we wouldn’t hit this, because our ability to bust is higher. This gives us an advantage counting bj. Counting I. Baccarat is way more advanced, hence why they say you need a computer. The betting opportunities are way smaller and tighter and the percentage over the house edge is so very tiny that it’s not worth it for anyone to try this approach, and hence, no one does.

In what you suggest by giving player or
Banker a value based on what’s already came out, there isn’t a value high enough to give the actual result an advantage. And I’d there was based on the computer counting scenario, then that very small fraction of an advantage wouldn’t be doing you any favors. The advantage in counting cards in blackjack can’t be a few percentage points and even then you can see swing in the thousands. By seeing swings in thousands of units in blackjack with a bigger margin of advantage play would mean the minuscule advantage in baccarat could see swings at an even higher fluctuation than in blackjack.

But people still do give player and banker ratings and values based on what’s already been dealt. In that grand scope of it all, doing this is nothing more than creating a method of guessing that would be no better than just betting on banker every time, but actually slightly worse if it did involve betting on player.

I know this makes me look like I’m on the side of the much despised math boys, if someone could prove me wrong I’d quickly be in line to utilize this method. But I’m pretty sure that I can only be told I’m wrong and not see the blueprints for an effective long term strategy that doesn’t involve psychic abilities, or voodoo.

 

As far as opposites and repeats...

Plenty of people will disagree with my opinions on this as well.

the shoe is predetermined. We can all agree on that. Touching the cards, rubbing the cards in alternative baccarat isn’t going to change anything, but some people are superstitious and if they are having fun, that’s awesome. They are paying for it so they deserve it. Regardless, it’s not going to change what’s about to come out. The only way we can determine this is by cheating somehow. The most sophisticated counting method isn’t going to help us either. And while not everyone believes this, the results that are dealt, don’t actually have any significant impact on what’s coming out. None that we can or will ever be able to take advantage of.

You’ll never play the same shoe twice in your life most likely, and most people with years into the game believe they’ve seen enough to be able to predict how it’s behaving and what it will do. All lucky guesses aren’t accurate predictions, just coincidences that fortifies the belief of what they are assuming it will do. And this guessing technique works at the expected value of the game itself. Some days more so, some days less. This combined with random bet sizes gives the person playing the sense that they have a natural or learned/seasoned ability to beat the game with their method that they can’t always quite explain, and to me it’s just random. It’s just gambling. It’s just good luck and some bad luck. We’re gonna see chops almost every shoe, we’re gonna see runs every shoe. Sets of 2’s and 3’s and no matter how many times we analyze it, it’s never going to give us a secret formula on how to predict what’s coming next. The best way to predict what’s going to be next more than 50% of the time is to bet banker. Even if there have been 20 players in a row. The best bet to follow it with is banker.

Using that as an example... a lot of people will tell you this. Nah, don’t bet if you see 20 players in a row. Or if you do bet, bet on player. It’s running. Not true. It has ran, that doesn’t affect the next outcome. You will never be able to change their mind on this. There are people that will tell you that you should never fight a run.

sit in a casino for 20 years and keep track of how many times player goes 20
In a row. After witnessing it happen hundreds or thousands of times, you’ll be able to safely tell people the best bet after 20 players in a row is banker. Because more than 50% of the time, that will be what happens. Now you can work your way down with that same logic. After 19 or 18. Once you work it all the way down, even 2 players in a row, the next best bet is banker. And when you finally have it all figured out, you’re only left with banker.

It’s infuriating for a lot of people to understand or see that, but there’s no possible way to know that player is the better bet in any given situation that we can take advantage of.

 

Jae your points are valid thanks for your input I’d love to discuss taking advantage of those deep grinds with you in private if you are open to it not sure how to send a message on here to you however

 

Good post especially last paragraph.
Have you considered/ encountered the rng infinity stadium baccarat? From experience some software some establishments don’t run the long streak of player or banker. Downside low table minimum and very low table max. $1-$100 in club style venue. Not og useable.

But on infinity rng I would think you would be able to run all sorts of -10,-20,-500 levels simultaneously 24/7 etc.

Side note for tie and pairs player and this is a statement that I’m not going to to show the how’d or why’s but there is a tell in rng to decrease the % somewhat to jag the pay on tie and pairs. You interested you figure it out. I happened to notice it over the years, I don’t play them as it’s a rule of mine but I see the regularity. Do some homework.

To back a post this forum after 1/2 price banker win tie bet not far away in dealer dealt live shoes, I had noticed that to be correct but I don’t play tie. Etc. but I do record many anoles (?) and pass on to other people. Cheers

 

Interesting. I will continue to bet Player (after say the third Player) in the belief the situational pattern will continue. Having regards to other considerations ie previous longer than 3 Player runs for eg. If I win and continue to win my Hot Phase Bet (HPB) will ensure I make an appropriate amount of money from this, my Hot Phase.

If I lose, I lose one bet and shrink my subsequent bet size because it then signals your reading of Banker being the more likelier outcome is correct and My situational pattern has broken down and I am in a Shar Chi Phase or a Neutral Phase.

The MM side will have to take over and preserve bankroll.

 

He left his email address this forum, go look for it , start on play profile, message posted then search them. Contact via email more secure imho rather than pm here as I believe admin has access to it etc. cheers

 

Thank you Punk and LY

 

I thought you quit this forum.

 

Business lessons can always be learned, if not from this thread and the shenanigans, then from leading business figures. Jeff Bezos, the richest man on the planet sold hundreds of billions of China made products to Americans who then made him their richest man. The enigmas of America.

When it was established that he was betrayed by the brother of his girlfriend Michael Sanchez who went to press with photos and messages between Jeff and his sister, Lauren, Jeff had this to say :-

“Its better to assume trust and find out that you are wrong than assume that people are going to screw you over”.

He learnt his lessons and God knows if he has had a change of heart.

 

This gem belongs here on this thread:-

Amidst a world where everything can be copied, those that will make it are those that can find the small differences that matter.

 

Tired out reading long winded essays that continue to quote my handle despite my repeated requests to stop.

For sure these kinds of behaviour is not representative of a businessman, let alone a successful businessman. I have spoken at seminars and forums where all speakers share their experiences and encourage the audience, who are generally younger and less experienced. Nobody insists their business is the best. Everyone have their nice niches and know how that os profitable. Nobody and nobody talks and insists on the audience to endorse and adopt a theoretically profitable business whom the speaker has not put money in yet and has not turned a profit.

In a private equity environment, we call it PowerPoint stage. Everything is theory. Dreams are made of these stuffs. Whether it comes to fruition is another matter. Yes, some may find backers for such projects. But depends on the personality of the promoter.

If it is a social enterprise; its also another matter.

There is a certain set of decorum and language expected; however.

Rest and watch the English Premier League