Baccarat Proof that Jae's OG System is Validated

OK, here is "regression toward the mean" as it works normally on average:

 

And this is "regression toward the mean" as it can work when it goes wild and refuses to correct:

 

I must work on Jae's OG method because it would get killed by "regression toward the mean" that refuses to correct.

 

The options

L-Y 2 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 a positive and conservative progression .


John P. 2 1 2 3 4 5 positive and aggressive.


3 2 1 Leaving no doubt WHO is in charge . Positive and short.



ND

 

ND, short and sweat. ... that's what she said.

 

I think this telemetry is correct. It only increases during the virtual bets if the amount is in the negative.

Code:

1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 100 for next bet
2 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet
3 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet
4 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet
5 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -400 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet
6 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ -- 200 for next bet
7 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -400 -- Player @ -- 200 for next bet
8 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Banker @ -- 300 for next bet
9 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
10 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
11 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
12 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
13 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
14 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
15 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
16 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
17 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
18 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 400 -- Banker @ -- 500 for next bet
19 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 500 for next bet
20 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 500 -- Banker @ -- 600 for next bet
21 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 500 -- Banker @ -- 600 for next bet
22 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 600 for next bet
23 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -700 -- Player @ -- 600 for next bet
24 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1300 -- Player @ -- 600 for next bet
25 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Banker @ -- 700 for next bet
26 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 200 -- Banker @ -- 800 for next bet
27 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 200 -- Banker @ -- 800 for next bet
28 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 200 -- Banker @ -- 800 for next bet
29 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 800 for next bet
30 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 900 for next bet
31 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 900 for next bet
32 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 900 for next bet
33 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 400 -- Banker @ -- 1000 for next bet
34 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 1000 for next bet
35 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 500 -- Banker @ -- 1100 for next bet
36 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 1100 for next bet
37 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 600 -- Banker @ -- 1200 for next bet
38 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 600 -- Banker @ -- 1200 for next bet
39 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 1200 for next bet
40 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 700 -- Banker @ -- 1300 for next bet
41 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 1300 for next bet
42 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- Banker @ -- 1400 for next bet
43 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- Banker @ -- 1400 for next bet
44 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- Banker @ -- 1400 for next bet
45 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 1400 for next bet
46 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -2000 -- Player @ -- 1400 for next bet
47 bets so far, Real bets total = -1400 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ -- 1400 for next bet
48 bets so far, Real bets total = -2800 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ -- 1400 for next bet

It's probably got a long way to go. I'm not using +1 in the virtual to real bets. I'm using +$2,000 as real bets are still accurate wit the goal to reach +1 in the virtual bets.

This is how the process works. I had five successful wins at + $2,000 before this loss. But this loss did happen.

Just waiting to see if I have it operating right.

 

Here is a long drawn out win. Check the telemetry to see if bets increases are correct:

Code:

1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet
2 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet
3 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 200 for next bet
4 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 200 for next bet
5 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 200 for next bet
6 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 200 for next bet
7 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 200 for next bet
8 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 200 for next bet
9 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -400 -- Player @ -- 200 for next bet
10 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 200 for next bet
11 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Banker @ -- 300 for next bet
12 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 300 for next bet
13 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
14 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 500 for next bet
15 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ -- 500 for next bet
16 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 500 for next bet
17 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 400 -- Banker @ -- 600 for next bet
18 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 400 -- Banker @ -- 600 for next bet
19 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 600 for next bet
20 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 500 -- Banker @ -- 700 for next bet
21 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 500 -- Banker @ -- 700 for next bet
22 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 500 -- Banker @ -- 700 for next bet
23 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 700 for next bet
24 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 600 -- Banker @ -- 800 for next bet
25 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 600 -- Banker @ -- 800 for next bet
26 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 800 for next bet
27 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 700 -- Banker @ -- 900 for next bet
28 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 700 -- Banker @ -- 900 for next bet
29 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 700 -- Banker @ -- 900 for next bet
30 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 900 for next bet
31 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- Player @ -- 900 for next bet
32 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Banker @ -- 1000 for next bet
33 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- Player @ -- 1000 for next bet
34 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 1100 for next bet
35 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- Player @ -- 1100 for next bet
36 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Banker @ -- 1200 for next bet
37 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Banker @ -- 1200 for next bet
38 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- Player @ -- 1200 for next bet
39 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -2300 -- Player @ -- 1200 for next bet
40 bets so far, Real bets total = -1200 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ -- 1200 for next bet
41 bets so far, Real bets total = 0 -- Vig so far = 60 -- Banker @ -- 1300 for next bet
42 bets so far, Real bets total = 1300 -- Vig so far = 125 -- Banker @ -- 1400 for next bet
43 bets so far, Real bets total = -100 -- Vig so far = 125 -- Player @ -- 1400 for next bet
44 bets so far, Real bets total = 1300 -- Vig so far = 195 -- Banker @ -- 1500 for next bet
45 bets so far, Real bets total = 2800 -- Vig so far = 270 -- Banker @ -- 1600 for next bet

 

Here is another loser. I don't get this. Jae says his real bet levels tend to be around +4 or +5, $400 or $500.

Code:

1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet
2 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Banker @ -- 200 for next bet
3 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 200 for next bet
4 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ -- 200 for next bet
5 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 300 for next bet
6 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 300 for next bet
7 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ -- 300 for next bet
8 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
9 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
10 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
11 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
12 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -700 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
13 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ -- 500 for next bet
14 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 400 -- Banker @ -- 600 for next bet
15 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 600 for next bet
16 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 500 -- Banker @ -- 700 for next bet
17 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 700 for next bet
18 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -900 -- Player @ -- 700 for next bet
19 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1600 -- Player @ -- 700 for next bet
20 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -2300 -- Player @ -- 700 for next bet
21 bets so far, Real bets total = -700 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ -- 700 for next bet
22 bets so far, Real bets total = 0 -- Vig so far = 35 -- Banker @ -- 800 for next bet
23 bets so far, Real bets total = 800 -- Vig so far = 75 -- Banker @ -- 900 for next bet
24 bets so far, Real bets total = -100 -- Vig so far = 75 -- Player @ -- 900 for next bet
25 bets so far, Real bets total = -1000 -- Vig so far = 75 -- Player @ -- 900 for next bet
26 bets so far, Real bets total = -100 -- Vig so far = 120 -- Banker @ -- 1000 for next bet
27 bets so far, Real bets total = -1100 -- Vig so far = 120 -- Player @ -- 1000 for next bet
28 bets so far, Real bets total = -2100 -- Vig so far = 120 -- Player @ -- 1000 for next bet

 

Oh, I see a mistake in this last run.

 

Line 6 went from -400 to -200

I believe it should have went to -300

Line 7 would be -500.
Lines 10 through 16 are all 300 bets?

 

Now it looks right. This is amazing. It gets killed a lot. I wonder what is wrong now?

Code:

1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 100 for next bet
2 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Banker @ -- 200 for next bet
3 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 200 for next bet
4 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ -- 200 for next bet
5 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- Player @ -- 200 for next bet
6 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ -- 300 for next bet
7 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 200 -- Banker @ -- 400 for next bet
8 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
9 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
10 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1000 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
11 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1400 -- Player @ -- 400 for next bet
12 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -900 -- Banker @ -- 500 for next bet
13 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Banker @ -- 600 for next bet
14 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -900 -- Player @ -- 600 for next bet
15 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ -- 700 for next bet
16 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -900 -- Player @ -- 700 for next bet
17 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Banker @ -- 800 for next bet
18 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- Banker @ -- 900 for next bet
19 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 900 for next bet
20 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 900 -- Banker @ -- 1000 for next bet
21 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 1900 -- Banker @ -- 1000 for next bet
22 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2900 -- Banker @ -- 1000 for next bet
23 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 3900 -- Banker @ -- 1000 for next bet
24 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 2900 -- Player @ -- 1000 for next bet
25 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 1900 -- Player @ -- 1000 for next bet
26 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 900 -- Player @ -- 1000 for next bet
27 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ -- 1000 for next bet
28 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- Player @ -- 1000 for next bet
29 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ -- 1100 for next bet
30 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- Player @ -- 1100 for next bet
31 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 100 -- Banker @ -- 1200 for next bet
32 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- Player @ -- 1200 for next bet
33 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -2300 -- Player @ -- 1200 for next bet
34 bets so far, Real bets total = -1200 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ -- 1200 for next bet
35 bets so far, Real bets total = -2400 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ -- 1200 for next bet

 

Yes, I'm debugging this right in front of everyone.

It might be working better down below.

 

Look at the last chart posted two post above'

 

Lines 20 through 25 look like bank was positive but the bets kept increasing anyways.

line 2 looks wrong.

if the first decision was player and the second decision is banker, there would be no increase in unit size. By increasing line 2 to 200, if it would have won the third line, then it would have been +2. When the goal is only +1

 

OK, I changed the telemetry. It no longer tells you what the next bet is. It now tells you what the bet was for that hand / line.

I think this is getting closer to real.

Code:

1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
2 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ 100 bet
3 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
4 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 0 -- Banker @ 100 bet
5 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
6 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 100 bet
7 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ 100 bet
8 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 100 bet
9 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -400 -- Player @ 200 bet
10 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 200 bet
11 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -500 -- Player @ 300 bet
12 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 300 bet
13 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -600 -- Player @ 400 bet
14 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 400 bet
15 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ 500 bet
16 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 500 bet
17 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ 500 bet
18 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 500 bet
19 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ 500 bet
20 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 800 -- Banker @ 500 bet
21 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Player @ 500 bet
22 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 500 bet
23 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 300 -- Banker @ 500 bet
24 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 500 bet
25 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -700 -- Player @ 500 bet
26 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 500 bet
27 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -800 -- Player @ 600 bet
28 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 600 bet
29 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -900 -- Player @ 700 bet
30 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 700 bet
31 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 600 -- Banker @ 800 bet
32 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 1400 -- Banker @ 800 bet
33 bets so far, Virtual bets total = 600 -- Player @ 800 bet
34 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 800 bet
35 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1000 -- Player @ 800 bet
36 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Banker @ 800 bet
37 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- Player @ 900 bet
38 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -2000 -- Player @ 900 bet
39 bets so far, Real bets total = -900 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ 900 bet
40 bets so far, Real bets total = -1800 -- Vig so far = 0 -- Player @ 900 bet
41 bets so far, Real bets total = -900 -- Vig so far = 45 -- Banker @ 1000 bet
42 bets so far, Real bets total = 100 -- Vig so far = 95 -- Banker @ 1100 bet
43 bets so far, Real bets total = -1000 -- Vig so far = 95 -- Player @ 1100 bet
44 bets so far, Real bets total = 100 -- Vig so far = 150 -- Banker @ 1200 bet
45 bets so far, Real bets total = -1100 -- Vig so far = 150 -- Player @ 1200 bet
46 bets so far, Real bets total = 100 -- Vig so far = 210 -- Banker @ 1300 bet
47 bets so far, Real bets total = 1400 -- Vig so far = 275 -- Banker @ 1400 bet
48 bets so far, Real bets total = 2800 -- Vig so far = 345 -- Banker @ 1500 bet

 

Here is the source code so far, minus the function for selecting the next hand:

Code:

on mouseUp
   global virtualBets, realBets, betValue, proceedWithReal, bankersVigTotal
   
   put 100 into betValue 
   put 0 into virtualBets 
   put 0 into realBets 
   put 0 into bankersVigTotal
   put "continue" into keepGoing
   put "false" into proceedWithReal 
   put "" into field "MainText"
   put 0 into handCount
   
   repeat with i = 1 to 300
      add 1 to handCount
      put pickTheNextWinner("xxx") into playerBankerResult
      
      if proceedWithReal = "false" then
         if playerBankerResult = "P" then
            subtract betValue from virtualBets
         end if
         if playerBankerResult = "B" then
            if virtualBets  < 0 then
               add betValue to virtualBets
            else
               add betValue to virtualBets
            end if
         end if
         
         put handCount & " bets so far, Virtual bets total = " after field "MainText"
         put virtualBets & " -- " after field "MainText"
         if playerBankerResult = "B" then 
            put "Banker @ " after  field "MainText"
         else
            put "Player @ " after  field "MainText"
         end if
         put betValue  & " bet" after  field "MainText"
         if playerBankerResult = "B" then
            if virtualBets  < 0 then
               add 100 to betValue
            end if
         end if
         put return after field "MainText"
      end if
      
      if proceedWithReal = "true" then
         if playerBankerResult = "B" then
            add betValue to realBets 
            add (betValue * .05) to bankersVigTotal -- here is where the vig is added up
            add 100 to betValue
         end if
         if playerBankerResult = "P" then
            subtract betValue from realBets 
         end if
         put handCount & " bets so far, Real bets total = " after field "MainText"
         put realBets & " -- " after field "MainText"
         put "Vig so far = " & bankersVigTotal after field "MainText"
         if playerBankerResult = "B" then 
            put " -- Banker @ " after  field "MainText"
         else
            put " -- Player @ " after  field "MainText"
         end if
         put betValue  & " bet" after  field "MainText"
         put return after field "MainText"
      end if
      
      if virtualBets <= -2000 then 
         put "true" into proceedWithReal 
      end if
      
      if realBets <= -2000 then 
         exit repeat
      end if
      
      if realBets >= 2000 then 
         exit repeat
      end if
      
   end repeat
end mouseUp

 

Here is the function created to process selections with one line of code:

Code:

function pickTheNextWinner xz
   put random(1000) into jaesMagic
   if  jaesMagic < 491 then
      put "P" into scruffRatShit
   else
      put  "B" into scruffRatShit
   end if
   return scruffRatShit
end pickTheNextWinner

It's x-Talk language. You can use anything you want for variables.

 

Now it looks like real bets need some work.

 

OK, this should look very close or correct:

Code:

1 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Player @ 100 bet
2 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -200 -- Player @ 100 bet
3 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Banker @ 100 bet
4 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -300 -- Player @ 200 bet
5 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -100 -- Banker @ 200 bet
6 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -400 -- Player @ 300 bet
7 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -700 -- Player @ 300 bet
8 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1000 -- Player @ 300 bet
9 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -700 -- Banker @ 300 bet
10 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1100 -- Player @ 400 bet
11 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -700 -- Banker @ 400 bet
12 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1200 -- Player @ 500 bet
13 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -1700 -- Player @ 500 bet
14 bets so far, Virtual bets total = -2200 -- Player @ 500 bet
15 bets so far, Real bets total = 500 -- Vig so far = 25 -- Banker @ 500 bet
16 bets so far, Real bets total = 1100 -- Vig so far = 55 -- Banker @ 600 bet
17 bets so far, Real bets total = 400 -- Vig so far = 55 -- Player @ 700 bet
18 bets so far, Real bets total = 1100 -- Vig so far = 90 -- Banker @ 700 bet
19 bets so far, Real bets total = 1900 -- Vig so far = 130 -- Banker @ 800 bet
20 bets so far, Real bets total = 2800 -- Vig so far = 175 -- Banker @ 900 bet

I think I have it.

 

Line six should be -300 instead of -400.