Baccarat Craps' Subjective Destiny

Craps,

I like your play. It has kinda thrown me off with the marty. I'm conflicted, because I disapprove of the marty, and yet your application I can find no fault with...yet. No offense, I'm just trying to sort it all out. More on that later.
You are trying to maneuver yourself in a position where you only lose when you encounter a very strong standard deviation for the 5 hand sequence you bet against to continue to appear. You have created for yourself an area of positive expectation and you DONT PUSH IT. You appear to be betting into a virtual 50+ unit draw down just trying to secure 10% or less of that 'regression to the mean'. Brilliant, it's like you keep finding that needle in the hay stack, random keeps moving it, you still keep finding it.
It is YOUR short term 'subjective' experience, that is unique to you. In the long run, YOUR long term subjective experience will no longer be unique to you. We will have all experienced the same exact thing. You are catching imbalances in the short term, unique to you, that you know will not continue, because eventually there will be no imbalances.
Your approach requires a lot of patience, lot of homework. 16 years? way beyond the long run. Appears to be no realistic expectation for your method to fail, or it should have by now. Appears to be no reason someone else couldn't produce the same results. It does require a pretty hefty dose of mental acuity.

Here's my take on the marty. It is a hedge bet. And I'm not a fan of hedge bets. You make a one unit bet, lose it, and replace it with a 2u bet. Why? Because you are trying to recover that lost 1u bet, and you know you won't be able to flat bet to win it back because you can't win more bets than you lose.

So you make that 2u bet. I say, that 2u bet isn't going to generate enough surplus units to cover all of its own 2u losses, let alone be able to cover all the excess 1u losses. You continue on to the 3rd step at 4u. Same trick, you are dependent upon an area of positive expectation to win this 4u bet often enough to cover all of the 4 unit losses, and all of the excess 2u and 1u losses.

Exactly the same as the "Regression" thread. Each one of those bet placements is an individual bet selection, disconnected from the previous bet. If it is the 3rd bet that comes home for you more than 50% of the time, than that is where your positive expectation is. Discard the rest of the bets, why waste the units? And just bet 4u directly after 2 virtual losses.

If each of the bets in your marty shared the exact same advantage. For example, you win your first, second, and third bets all pretty much 53% of the time, then flat betting works. Without that even spread, your positive expectation (if you find/create one) will manifest strongly in one position.
If you find that the final step of your marty wins less often than any of the previous steps, then there is no need to bet beyond that step. No need to bet anywhere but on that step, but if you are going to bet every step, no sense betting past your positive expectation.

However, your marty more closely resembles a single bet spread across 5 bet placements. And you go to the casino with 1u looking to win just 1/4 of a unit. Weekly hoping to win at least 1.25(31u) UNITS before losing 1(31u) UNIT.
I still think it can be narrowed down, but I suspect it might take more effort that what is worth it to try and isolate it further. Plus if you get it wrong.....
I can see the advantage of a marty casting a large enough blanket across a couple of bet placements insuring you cover the area of positive expectation you need to win in the long run.

Baccaritic

 

Anytime the House have restrictions, that is where the ' weaknesses' or the vulnerability is. The table max bet is strictly enforced unless special limits are requested. One of the reason is to deter the players who bet with a progression to have a limit on how far they can go. If one were to make decisions hand after hand with 'see how it goes' every hand is individual and DO NOT carry any probability. It is only after the results of 5 losing hands IAR that one looked back and say there is only a 3% chance of that happening. But when one predetermined a 5 hand pattern and went through with it, the probability of a 97% hit rate does apply. If one were to incorporate LOA whether it happens or not then the winnings becomes achievable because a loss or bust is EXPECTED and factored in the proceedings. If enough fractional units are won before the bust, then the pressure is completely taken off and it's all harvesting from there onwards. If the bust comes before enough units are won, then it becomes a grind and not what so called experts of the game describing it as winning a piece of candy and losing the whole factory. This is so short sighted because the enormous probability is overlooked completely.
More.,........

 

Please enlighten me.... how's Crap precise style of play?

 

Play very closely to break even and looking to go up a tad above it. This mindset is gives you a chance to win long term. Small money. Less playing and a lot of charting. Patience is in the ' waiting game' Losing is included and acceptance of it is a must.
People often talked about control, patience and discipline BUT those alone don't make you a winner. It does not translate to win. Patience, you still lose. Control your emotions, you still lose. Discipline and not deviate and you still lose. Your approach has to have REAL probability so that wins and losses is Math related and not Luck related. You can position yourself to be lucky but you can't control luck. Examples of controlling luck is to dwell to much on bet selection. The House gives you all the go ahead with bet selection. They provide you with the convenience of having your choice of bet selection with no restrictions. They come up with tools to entice you to concentrate on bet selections. If you decide to not bother with bet selections and stick to one side betting, the House Edge is there to take care of thing. So what is left is Money Management. If you try to timed when to bet high or low subjectively, you are actually treating MM as BS. You need to get probability from MM. You only need to deal with the trade off of having probability with frequency of wins over losses.

 

Don't get carried away.Having probability using MM is by no means a natural winner. It is an option known as the gambler's edge to give you the power of winning fractional units with EASE. Now if you Hit & Run, you can essentially get a step ahead with breaking even and quit playing to ensure that the probability you are using works to its entirety without the Law of Big Numbers to neutralize it so to speak. Systems do not work because the Math side of things made it. The loop hole I am talking about is we try to sip through the cracks. Try to tip toe across a land mine meaning to be very selective with an entry point using a trigger and to lock up wins and not overplay the approach. Continue to chart progress of used approach is a must because it can enable you to gauge when to make the next move.
A good example is try to mirror 5 hands side by side and you notice that they don't appear much. Why, it's probability at work. Imbalances with single hands of B or P is not reliable. That could be a fallacy called LOA. But imbalances with a series of 5 hands. I like my chances.

 

I agree with "play very close to break even......" Craps you are describing exactly the mind set that has always work for me, regarding any game really. and that mind set is a savior for marty players specially because of the need for self control so desperately needed to those who play negative progressions.
it pushes you in the direction of patience and when I think of it, playing to brake even is just as challenging as playing for profit, same dynamics are involve.

Regards,

 

Good to see you have the same thought process. People just don't realized the harder they try to win translates to the harder they try to lose as well from the other side of the table.
Accept losses as part of your winning strategy. I have not come to the point where I can totally minimize my losses each time it happens therefore I went the route of using a progression where a BUST is the stop point. I just need to work around the bust with subsequent plans which is using Tier Martingale in a conservative way. Losses cannot be written off and must be recouped.
My second favorite approach is when I gamble leisurely out of Vegas with 3 unit bankroll for flat betting and a 3 Marty for the sole purpose of rescuing the initial flat bet bankroll if that goes down. I am currently working on a 6 Marty broken up into 2x 3 Marty with a 3 Marty virtual bust before playing. Perfect so far in testing. Will reveal when I feel it can work long term.

 

I like to call it a day myself upon losing a Marty, it is very demanding mentally to continue playing a neg.progression right after losing the 32 or 64 units. it actually is the main reason I think why players lose control if they dont abort the strategy and wait for another time to go back to it. I been there many times and instead losing 64 or 32 units I would lose 500 units because I would increase my bets and try to recoup losses right there. even if I needed to move up in the betting it still so much smarter not to do it the same day. I would be "on tilt" even if no one else saw it and get into more action as soon as possible, no patience.
those days are over, (I like to think), but I know how to manipulate my emotions through proper thinking these last few years and it shows in terms of profit, no doubt.
hit and run is the perfect way to apply the Marty, but I like the 15 unit differential MM as well . 1,2,3,4,5. (back and forth play) where you would need to lose 5 more bets then you win in order to lose 15 units . but that is for another thread .
I feel that Martingales are like "pit-bulls" that gotten a bad reputation because some got bitten pretty hard by it, yet others have known their kind and loyal sides and now there are best friends, (just dont piss them off) lol.
Regards

 

Winning the five-step Marty is a 50/50 proposition. You're going to lose it just as many times as you're going to win it. Therefore unless you have a method of prediction to determine that you can win it more often than not, a lot more often than not, it's a losing situation.

Same with soxfan and his flat bet Banker game. Unless he's got a prediction to win way more Banker hands than loses it's a losing proposition.

 

Very true. The Gambler's Edge and the Hit & Run is the difference. The Homework on bet selection and avoiding the loss with charting and Non-playing. If I bust 2 times within 10 series but did not play, don't you think the probability to win 1 unit only IS ON MY SIDE?

 

no I don't because of variance and the disparity between a loss which is 31 units and a win which is only one unit using the Marty .

But that's sort of what JAE is doing with his imbalance.

 

Then the argument is that past events don't affect future outcomes but Math don't lie. Probabilities don't lie and that is why occurrences favors those with more probabilities like betting on Banker only. To get a 5 hand block to mirror a 5 block hand DOES not and WILL not happen the way you thought it could happen and that is Math. it is easier to win better against that happening but when the Perfect Storm comes, you will pay dearly for it and that is called Odds. Embrace it. Don't run away from it.

 

You know how to say Marty is 50/50 proposition BUT still separate it and isolate it from other MM. Why? After you lose 31 units, you don't expect to win it back? In Addition you know 31 unit loss is NOT 31 units because you don't lose 31 units in every attempt. How about winning 100 units before losing that 31?

 

Jae knows exactly what I am talking about. He has come to a point where 2000 unit risk is holding up for him to make a comeback FOR NOW. If you Flat Bet, the drawdowns won't be great but the commission gets you in the long run. If you do D'Alembert with betting Banker only, it will work maybe with a 5000 unit bankroll as long as the House Max bet allows you. OG is the next most conservative MM after Flat Betting. Maybe the Labby requires 10000 units. The Martingale has its limitations because of the House Max. Otherwise a 30 step Marty should be safe or maybe not.
The question is WOULD YOU RISK THAT MUCH EVEN THOUGH IT WORKS ???
You play like Jae and you might bust your 2000 units sooner because your destiny is NOT the same.

 

The House knows about progressions to get probability. The House is prepared to lose to you if you use progression. Anyway the House put a limitation with a Max bet to make your progression comes to a limit and can't carry on. It is the idea that IF things were to even out, you will lose to the House Edge. Besides progression, you could lose because of the Human Factor. The HUMAN FACTOR is very bias because it ONLY helps the House. You can be a lifetime winner. You just need to find THAT imbalance method that solely works for you. Maybe Jase has found his. He is the Rabbit and I am the Tortoise. Important thing is we both need to cross the finish line.