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TurboGenius Gambler's Fallacy (absurd ?) Proof.

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Oct 29, 2021.

  1. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    No, it's correct. We're talking about the long term, so rate = probability. Long term doesn't mean the next cycle or even the next few cycles (37 spins), which is why betting on unhit numbers from the first cycle onwards doesn't give you any edge. Certainly not enough to overcome the house edge.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  2. Denzie

    Denzie Well-Known Member

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    Correct ! It's a waste of time to demonstrate that to you. Why would anybody? Lmao

    I guess the new normal is staring into the flame of a candle for an hour or so and then bet the fancy hocus pocus numbers that appear in our mind ... rofl
     
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  3. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    So what causes a few numbers to be the hottest in every 300 spins? That's a long term condition also. Sure, it changes from 300 spins to 300 spins. But while it is happening it's each 300 spin's hottest numbers. What causes this?
     
  4. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Where's the rest of the sequence .. that's incomplete data, MJ.
    Give a method time to perform ..

    Or rather, take one permanence out from Wiesbaden or Laroulette.it -- & either paste link or upload its file; then we can talk.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  5. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Let's tackle the example issue another way. I want to know how long ( on average) a hottest number lasts. If it is the hottest number in 300 spins then does it go on to still being very active, above the mean value of 1 / 37? Since it is logical to assume that it keeps going I wonder if it is like near 400 spins?

    Someone could program a sim to accumulate enough data to get a very close to accurate value for how long hottest numbers stay hot. Has this already been done and if so does anyone have a number?
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  6. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Well, not everyone can sprint 100m under 9, 8.5s .. but some can.
     
  7. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I'm asking this because you never know at what point you are coming across a hottest number's sequence. You could catch it at the start, the middle, or near the end. There must be a kind of nature to hottest numbers.
     

  8. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yes, but how many can go hell bent for leather down a mountain slope at 95 miles per hour and drop off a cliff and do a turn on the landing? Enough can that everyone wants to watch it like watching a train wreck.
     
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  9. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Accompanying each &bevery of your examples worked on -- same to others.

    I am sure you'd agree that the mode you opted for does not leave any room for constructive conversation.
     
  10. precogm

    precogm Active Member

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    lol well thanks for confirming. You don't think there is any need for demonstration to prove your claim?

    No demonstration = no proof/evidence

    We can end the discussion right there.

    Hindsight bias is a mistake many don't even understand they are making.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  11. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    √ Laugh & smile.
    Exactly, watch it .. but do it .. that's a whole another thing.
     
  12. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Here: Hahnenkamm:

     
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  13. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    I did. Only I did not get to do the Hahnenkamm. I ran the downhill at the world cup back in 1976. It had a cliff drop at 90+ MPH with a turn on the landing.

    The point, even in gambling, is to live a full life.
     
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  14. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    No you can't. This discussion is not over. Chasing the hottest numbers will not go away and neither will speculation on things that continue. I provided everything anyone needs to find out for themselves. Results will not lie. The only person that needs convincing is yourself. You don't need a parade or news reels. You just need to be honest with yourself and keep track of your end results. You don't have to publish anything.
     

  15. precogm

    precogm Active Member

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    Oh gizmo I see you have not changed.

    It's really not that hard. Just demonstrate your amazing winning super successful top of the range unstoppable victorious method then you would be king of the world.

    Until then these are just claims.
     
  16. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Let's do that then. Either I will or anyone that trained and acquired the skills that a few have actually demonstrated. So how do I get people to fall on their swords just for you? What you are attempting to do here in debate is require a person to prove a negative. Human nature is predictable. Either nobody is skilled enough to beat the heck out of the casinos or you have a soapbox to stand on and display your spandex leotards.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  17. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    I have highlighted MJ's wrong statement several times. If you fail to understand his error then that's too bad. Some people will never get it.
     
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  18. precogm

    precogm Active Member

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    Does that mean you are willing to demonstrate it?
     
  19. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    There's more coming, but why is it when Turbo posted his ONE chart showing great profit, nobody said "Give a method time to fail...". lol.
     
    Last edited: Nov 4, 2021
  20. Denzie

    Denzie Well-Known Member

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    Ok , let me do 10000 sessions for you ....lol

    TG did and guess what.....he won....but It's not enough spins, a fallacy, pretend game , ....they and you will always have some reason why the results are not legit....Yup, a waste of time
     
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