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Baccarat Who actually makes a living here playing baccarat?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Baccarat Magician, Nov 7, 2021.

  1. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    I agree with this and it's very insightful.

    I should probably say I agree with a caveat. We do need to monitor the outcomes to feedback into the method and detect when the assumptions and factors built into the decision method may have changed.

    The question is always does the edge still exist?

    Same thing with trading, each trade result is irrelevant on its own, but collectively when you have a known edge you do need to monitor results as the market does eliminate inefficiencies over time.
     
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  2. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Really? Pray tell. What the F does that mean? Now your going to tell us u got a pos ev on the side bets tp go along with your holy Grail???

    What are you going to begin to start making some sense instead of spewing ad hominem and they comments?
     
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  3. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Agree with a caveat is like saying you don't agree so why don't you just say you don't agree ?

    This guy Frank is always looking for some kind of "universal truth." If you're playing a negative EV game and can show a good standard deviation with a reasonable risk of ruin over a statistically significant number of events one could reasonably assume, subjective or not, that you've got a winning situation or strategy.
     
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  4. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Because I do agree that each outcome is actually not important, the method that resulted in the decision win or lose is what's important.

    Holistically we care that aggregate results are within expectations. Like any process there will be an expected number of favourable outcomes vs unfavorable and the net aggregate result is what we monitor. Where outliers occur further investigation may be required and we may delve into specific classes of events to optimise the method to exploit or defend against those.

    So yes I agree with him, but I am also saying there is always a governance function around any sound decision making process.
     
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  5. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Yes indeed, there are side bets where you can actually get the edge. You're going to have to hunt for them. Dr. Elliot Jacobson did a fine job of laying them out on his old risk consultant blog.

    Sort play is also still an option for astute players.


    What a load of BS. Focus on getting an edge and quit implying that money management will change the odds. Money management BS is what people try to sell when they don't know how to get the edge.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2021
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  6. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    I realise it is beyond your capacity to reason. I apply governance principles to everything I do, understand the expectations precisely and measure. This applies to trading, risk management, quality assurance and gambling be it sports betting and wagering or casino games.

    I know it's too much for you, so why don't you just STFU and stop being an ass clown in here.
     
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  7. Jimske

    Jimske Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    In that case it's up to you to define the edge. Anyway money management, by my definition, is not a strict formula. So it's hard to understand what you're talking about when you said it's BS.

    When it comes to money management, or even trending, it's hard to discount experience. These games have statistical limitations. There's times when you realize certain risks are not as advantageous as others. Sure, there are Black Swan events but they're basically far and few between.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2021

  8. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    Variance is something that is inherent in all game types. Some are as consistent as a glacial lake, such as 678 JKR Poker. Others fluctuate more than a really inappropriate metaphor I feel obliged not to share that involves an ex-girl-friend. Betting strategies do not actually alter the variance of a game they alter the fluctuation curve. It's a matter of perception rather than an alteration of reality.

    They feel different and our minds record them as different, but in reality it is the game itself and its rules that determines the variance. Variance is calculated on amount and frequency of payoffs. The fluctuation curve is subject to betting strategies though it's the difference between getting paid once a week, or every other week, or once a month. It changes nothing other than how it feels in your mind.
     
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  9. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Agree. If you have results it's easy to compute average return vs units risked and derive an effective edge to your method, however this may be blind to the cliff (e.g. a martingale looks great until it isn't) but generally the bankroll requirement vs the expected return will be a red flag.

    It is better if you can use combinatorial math to understand the rate of success vs failure and magnitude of the loss vs profit. If the method is complex then the analysis will need to consider different states of play and that can be harder to compute. Sometimes simulation is required.

    Once these parameters are understood that will provide a framework and the probability which you can base your expectations to double a bankroll, then increase units, and double again in half the time (triple the original bankroll). Then split into primary BR and reserve and start the process over again with a higher unit level. Hence geometric growth is possible with intermittent adverse events that are mere setbacks and factored into the bankroll management.

    If the method is unreliable or high risk vs the net profit then the likelihood to triple a bankroll as just described will falter and will not be enough to sustain growth and it will ultimately fail.
     
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  10. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Way toooooooooo much is written about money management by people that don't really know how to beat the game. You're not losing because of poor bet sizing, you're losing over long periods because you don't have the edge. If you really want to know how to win, read the risk casino risk consultants and ignore the endless money management sales pitch BS written by bloviating fruitcakes. Read Dr. Jacobson's old posts (They're excellent). Attend the World Game Protection meetings, read the pages. Read Zender or Willy Allison.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2021
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  11. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Nail
    plus
    Hammer
    = you have hit it on the head. simple effective description to make one able to earn a return from baccarat.

    The hard part for most is exactly what the easiest part you have posted jimske. Unfortunately it’s not a meatloaf situation, you need the 3 out of 3 to be ain’t bad. Most try and wing it because they believe they are lucky.

    Disclaimer
    I do believe in luck or fortunate occasions as I have witnessed them personally in my lifetime, but I don’t put the same value of “luck” into even the remotest aspect of baccarat.
    Good post. Cheers
     
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  12. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    The hard part about baccarat is there is no biased wheel.
    I’ve looked.
    Cheers
     
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  13. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Yep
    What he said.
    I’ve posted other threads previously this but in much more useless words. Cheers
     
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  14. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Seriously irresponsible advice to ignore money management.

    700-143927-Dickhead-of-the-year-award.jpg



    You really assume too much. You assume everyone doesn't have an edge. I apply money management across many different domains and just one of those is gambling in casinos, there are many other forms of gambling. You think I'm just talking about roulette and only roulette, yet what I say applies universally.

    Ignore it at your peril.

    And now you think you're the only person who can read. Not only can I read, I can think too.
     
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  15. CarloDarlo

    CarloDarlo Active Member

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    I've quit my job around 2019 and have consistently made money with baccarat every since. I will not reveal anything regarding my strategy that I haven't already disclosed in various post scattered about.

    There is no "Edge" per say. It's all using Money Management to navigate yourself out of problems. Anybody that claims and edge is an idiot. They have combed through this game with every super computer and pattern recognition tools you can think of.

    The power has always been what you wager and when you wager it. Control what you can control.
     
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  16. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Right on point.

    If one can survive the swings of negative variance until the favourable outcomes of positive variance and has a high confidence profit target for their method of play then you can carve out consistent profits, consolidate and build from there. The entire bankroll is never all on the line every session. When you get in the lead you keep the lead, even the math of random walks tells us this is most likely outcome c.f Arcsine law.
     
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  17. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    It's this simple, if you don't have the edge, then you won't win in the long term. Right now, you're just gambling.
     
    Last edited: Nov 10, 2021
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  18. Frank Kneeland

    Frank Kneeland Active Member Lineage to Founders

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    My first introduction to real math was a visit to the grave of Thomas Bayes, when I was only five years old. Bayes Therm is I believe exactly what you are describing. And yes I agree.
     
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  19. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    That's an awesome personal story and yes that is the method for updating probabilities.

    I first used it to crack weak cryptography and later as a classifier for spam, and later still for financial models and again more recently for machine learning, but logistic regression is more my go-to for that.

    Amazing how some individuals come along and gift the world tools that have have incredible utility for tasks that were previously unassailable.
     
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  20. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    And right now you're just hurt and jealous you don't have a clue how it's done. 2 years of success is not enough, a lifetime is not enough for you because theoretically he could have lost.

    You really think your precautionary pithy remarks have any value and that if he was losing he wouldn't actually notice? It might be a surprise to you but other folks can actually add.

    All we get from you is the same copy paste spew, fallacy parables and pearls of wiz-vegas.
     
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