1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Roulette The system juny blunder

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone, Nov 18, 2021.

  1. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Most system testing junkies don't know how to test their systems correctly, which traps them in the gambler's fallacy.

    An example using coin flips. While flipping through about 500 trials, the tester sees that coin flips rarely exceed 10 in a row of heads or tails. The tester calculates ahead of time that there's a 1 in 1024 chance of seeing specifically all heads. He decides that his strategy will be to wait for nine in a row of heads and will then bet tails, because he naively believes that there's only a 1 in 1024 chance that the next flip will be heads. And he claims his data backs up his claim!
     
  2. Mako

    Mako Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2018
    Likes:
    429
    Location:
    Irvine, CA
    It starts there sure, but it evolves. And as the tests/procedures/methods evolve, the failure rate of posted systems increases. And that's a good thing, because eventually you're left with one or two playstyles that may still be -EV in the long term, but can be exploited for shorter gains when variance is positive in your favor.

    I've tested, and disqualified, at least 100 play styles over the years, and most very quickly. Including multiple methods that their poor deluded creators really really really thought were "long term winners", and were shouting to the heavens as possible grails.

    Testing is easy. Some guidelines:

    1. Use RX Software (R-Sim is not a substitute, because of #2)

    2. Use Real wheel spins, from sources that spin the wheel bi-directionally (once clockwise, once counter-clockwise).


    NOTE: If you're planning on playing RNG-based games, then by all means, pursue that avenue. I don't, and never have, so to me RNG isn't something I pursue in terms of spin sets.

    Real spins are easily available from multiple sources, I prefer actual daily B&M results from reputable government-regulated facilities. One example:

    https://permanenzen.westspiel.de/default.aspx?casino=42

    Ironically, I also use some 00-wheel batches of spins just for contrast, including 20,000 from Trump Plaza wheels that His Holiness Saint Sir Any-trolling Any-time provided years ago.

    3. Testing must be done as you would play yourself in an actual setting.

    If you don't plan to sit at say a Roulette table for 1000+ continuous spins, over 12 hours straight with no bathroom breaks and no food, why are you building or testing a system that requires that? Obviously your playstyle must conform to both human limits, and YOUR limits. For me that means no sessions over 300 spins.

    4. Testing must include a large enough sample size to be statistically relevant.

    As Saint Sir Any-trolling Any-time often says, 300 spin graphs in isolation obviously aren't enough. I tend to test a method until it breaks, find out why it failed, then determine if it's worth continuing to test it. That process has never taken more than a few thousand spins, with the exception of the lone survivors, which have gone 10,000+ spins without failure.

    5. Progressions, including Martingaling, are not the problem...OR...the solution. They simply amplify what's already there.

    Progressions and to some extent money management, are not solutions to any problem. They can't turn a losing method into a winning one. However, there are a few methods that don't "work" flat betting, but do with progressions. In those cases the progression is simply to save time, or compress the play session down from that aforementioned 1,000+ spins, to something more appropriate, ala, 300 spins.

    You are at a bus stop. If the method doesn't work, the bus is never coming. If it works flat betting, then great, the bus is coming, but it may take far too long to get to the stop. Progressions speed up the bus. Simple.

    Hoping that the progression actually creates the bus route isn't realistic, it never will.

    6. Adhere to the same table limits and restrictions that your target casino (either online or off) adheres to.

    Don't fall in love with some positive test result that's done well for thousands of spins but requires a half-million-dollar table limit and individual number bets in the thousands. I remember Ignatus, bless his misguided heart, doing this over and over, until years later he finally realized that utilizing monstrous progressions with pretend unlimited tables simply doesn't apply in the real world.

    I'm sure I've forgotten half a dozen other rules I live by when testing, but the main point is: TRY TO LOSE. TRY HARD. YOU WANT THE SYSTEM TO FAIL.

    Way too much confirmation bias and curve-fitting in so many threads on so many message boards about gambling. If you don't know what those terms mean, google them and learn. They are the unseen enemy, and can derail you very quickly as your testing will show a false positive for a method, you'll then go play it and get killed at the table and have no idea "how it happened".

    Confirmation bias and curve-fitting is how it happened.

    Anyway, this went long, but ignoring the distracting or dangerous noise while hearing the actual signal is the goal, don't get them confused as you test.
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2021
    Punkcity likes this.
  3. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2019
    Likes:
    276
    Occupation:
    apicem rapax DNME
    Location:
    Empfire
    Wonder when was the last time you flipped a coin 500x, if ever ..
     
    Last edited: Nov 18, 2021
    Mako likes this.
  4. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2019
    Likes:
    276
    Occupation:
    apicem rapax DNME
    Location:
    Empfire
     
  5. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    I wrote this on Gigi's thread.

    Knowing why you lose is very important.
    This is when you learn the most.

    Inversely you must know why you win.
     
  6. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    You are writing kid stuff as usual.
     
  7. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    Can we exploit regression to the mean that by law of large numbers the probability of every pocket is 1/37?

    If yes, then this roulette game has a natural weakness.

    Similar to, if there were no table limit and unlimited bankroll then marty wins.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
    Mako likes this.

  8. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Hello Alababaha.
     
  9. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    You spend so much time and effort(more than a decade on multiple forums) to fool the naive and ignorant with basic probability you copy and paste from WoV which you know is a safe place to hide. Your best math is chi square, that's your "hidden" secret weapon. Do you have anything else to show? Do you realise there are people who are not ignorant? Oh yeah, you are only interested to fool your target market, that's your agenda.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
  10. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    Here's an example to demonstrate this oft cited 10 reds in a row.

    This 10 consecutive reds can occur anywhere and anytime.

    When we bet regression to the mean, what are we actually betting against?

    1. That there is a limit to this 10 consecutive red, say 20reds. We bet against the length of this consecutive series that the limit is 20 as example.

    2. The hitrate of red is too high, the hitrate of black is too low. By LLN, this hitrate must converge/diverge towards 1/37.

    3. Since there were 10 consecutive reds, we bet against the overall count that there're too many reds. We assume the black count to catch up.

    If YOUR strategy is betting regression to the mean, which are you betting?
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
  11. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    Correction....

    2. The hitrate of red is too high, the hitrate of black is too low. By LLN, this hitrate must converge/diverge towards 50:50.

    Addition to the above,

    Is there any difference between regression to the mean for EC 50:50 and individual pockets 1/37 as example?

    If yes, what's the difference?
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
  12. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica

    "The bridge too far." Here's why the system junky fails to see the fallacy. In order to properly test his method, he needs to wait until he sees 10 in row, and then track how many more times it went beyond that point. This means he would need to witness 1,048,576 flips in order to have tested his 10 heads in a row theory for 1024 trials. After that many trials, the junkie would likely witness at least one run of 20 heads in a row and should conclude that waiting for heads to become due is absurd.

    The same is true for roulette numbers. Waiting for them to become due to catch up is a fool's folly.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
  13. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Luckyfella, Turbo, and the rest of the silly squad,

    In order to properly test your "regression to the mean" method, you need to wait for the number sleep for a predetermined length of time, and then begin a new out of sample test for that specific number for a specific number of spins before calculating it's new hit rate.

    You can't combine the hit rate of both samples. Only the hit rate of the second sample matters. This is why you're being fooled into naively believing that it's catching up. After running enough trials, you'll find that there's no difference between cold numbers and hot numbers.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
  14. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Psst...Luckyfella,

    Black will never converge towards a hit rate of 1 in 37. Individual numbers will, but FYI...a 1 in 37 hit rate isn't enough for individual numbers to win either! :rolleyes:

    In order to grasp regression to the mean, study the random walk moving forward for roulette. Again, you're making the same novice mistakes that every other new system junkie makes.

    Best of luck,

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021

  15. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    Psst.... We all know you purposely refuse to read correction. Lol

    Psst.... I don't use this regression to the mean strategy.

    Psst.... Idk if regression to the mean 1/37 hitrate is enough to win. I read there is this secret sauce.

    That's why I asked, hopefully rtm experts answer the questions.

    I also suggested that if this is the case then this roulette game is flawed.

    Mine is the proper naysaying minus the sarcasm. And minus your scam agenda. SorrLol
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
  16. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Luckyfella,

    1 in 37 isn't enough to win. Regardless of how you manage your bet sizing...you will lose in the long term.

    I promise that MJ, Benas, myself and others aren't trying to make you look stupid. You're doing that all on your own.
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
  17. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    SirNoOne, you are not an expert in regression to the mean betting strategy, you are cut and paste from WoV expert plus your secret sauce chi square. Lol

    Let's be patient, see if any rtm expert post their views.
     
  18. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    Oh yeah, you guys look clever, soooo super clever you don't know how to win, and feel so proud telling people you can't win. Other then find travel the world hunt high and low for wobbly wheel. Lol

    I wouldn't even bother to call you stupid. I just call out your scam. Lol
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021
  19. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    288
    Location:
    Japan
    Btw, a rtm expert showed me the secret sauce. So I know. Lol

    Since it's not from me, I cannot claim credit.

    Still there are still questions pertaining to the weakness of this roulette game. I'm certain casinos are aware about this. So
     
  20. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    AW-images-march_0000_Three-Angels-Vertical.jpg

    Luckyfella,

    It's painful for experts like us to watch you guys make such grievous mistakes. So we feel that it's our job to help protect the ignorant somewhat from the casino. We're quite noble in that way. :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 19, 2021

Share This Page