TurboGenius When does it lose ?

Variance = Luck. It's not possible to predict or exploit luck and win in the long term.

 

That's your opinion. You clearly don't understand probability and variance.

Why don't you just fuck off and post in your pearls of wisdom in the AP forum where all the wobbly wheelers are.

Oh that's right, it's tumbleweeds there and you need to keep a steady stream of recruits to sell your overpriced casino cheat equipment to. At the end of the day you're a shady character involved in criminal activity. Clearly it works so effectively that you need new customers to survive.

For everyone else variance is a measure of dispersion, and is a measure of how spread out the results are from the theoretical probability.

 

Good greif! Can't you see that experts like MJ, Benas, Nathan, and I are here to help save people like you?!!

 

I would not expect to win playing the way you did. Giving away the first hit sacrifices 35u.

If you have done the math I explained to compute the cummulative losses and cummulative wins you would understand why.

 

Twoup,

Help me help you.
Let's start with the basics... what determines the probability of winning on a number?

1. The number of pockets on the wheel?
2. The previous numbers that have hit?
3. Both?

 

Let me help you.

What determines the win or loss in a session? The long term theoretical probability and house edge or the short term variance?

Anyone can confirm this for themselves. Take 100 chips and bet each one in turn.

Report your profit or loss. Is it exactly 2.7 units?

If it is then listen to Sir otherwise the truth may lie somewhere else.

 

But this is a philosophical question, the same as the question about painting is nice, or not. If it is very important - "when "?

Look you play 10 spins half-wheel and all lost - what means accordingly - your philosophy - house takes no edge from you ?

House edge is not related with "When " - it simply is, or not and how big it is when is...

In that coin game if you hit the head you get 0.9$, if the tail lost 1$ . Accordingly you - pay 0.1$ only when win?

But you must understand that "Edge" before result does not know it must be or not ...

 

In my opinion you somehow strange understand what is house edge and maybe edge at all...

Say payments on roulette are changed and you cover 19 pockets on American wheel - the lost, result is -19 , win - casino pay +19.

Equal chances to win and equal payment or losing. Naturally - we can name such a situation as "no house edge ".

If we bet 1 number 1$ and win house pay to us +37$ if we lost take that 1$.

Analogically to any other number of covered numbers...

And if we play many spins, very much, ... our expected result must try to become 0. And different it can be only because of dispersion.

That is in theory, practically is slightly different, but I do not want to go too deep.

So that is when we change payments and we have house edge = 0. But in reality, payments are as they are and nobody pays us 37 if we hit, but pay +35...

Ok, but then is a question from where appears edge in the player's side, about which claim AP players...? Amount of numbers stay still always the same!

Here is slightly difficult to understand, for those who do not know how works AP, best - to imagine that they "see" several numbers, which are "covered" and the ball has no possibility to enter to them. This way is like if the wheel becomes smaller, not with 38 pockets, but say with 30, but payments stay the same +35 for hit number...

 

So from all that what I said before - becomes clear what will be, that player could win in long run... he must "see" these numbers - which "can't "hit" !
But "see' can only Nostradamus, AP are not such, they not see but know, after some calculations. which they do before play.

Here is like some confrontation between system players and AP players who use math for knowing ...

Now say that system can give an edge and AP gives an edge. And from here let's think - how hard is it for AP players to use the system and how hard for system players to make the right math calculations...

In my opinion that is like to be beautiful and clever.

Clever can become beautiful relatively fast, for example, he can do plastic operations...but how to make a fast change into the smart side?

 

I perfectly understand, that for most who read what I wrote - that is absolutely not interesting, because they have different aims, for example - simply to write and try to look smart... and my writings confronted with their aims...how then they can like them ...

 

Losses are paid at true odds, as they take the full bet, not a penny more or a penny less. There is no additional house edge paid.

Wins are paid at less than true odds and that is when the house edge is paid.

There is no philosophy required, the math is very simple.

So if you lose a single bet 15 times in a row you paid zero house edge, not a cent. You did forfeit your bet at the true odds each time.

If you win on the 16th spin they pay you at 35 to 1 instead of 37 to 1. Now you just paid house edge.

 

Turbo, Is this happening or not? The last update I saw I think you said you had lost some so do I assume it’s not going well?
I don’t mind either way, was just curious, it’s just this thread has morphed into the usual banal arguments so I would like to know if I should I unwatch the thread.
Cheers

 

The simplest to understand house edge is from unfair payout angle.

For European wheel of 36+1=37pockets,

The fair payout is 1/36.
The unfair payout is 1/35.

The issue is with the unfair payout.
That gives the house edge.

House can set the game to any number of pockets. Not the issue.
House also set the unfair payout.

By the name unfair payout, the casino "cheats" by paying less than equitable when the player wins.

When you lose, no matter what the payout you lose what you betted.

That's the simple explanation of house edge.

 

If I were Turbo, I post the 4000spins session graph. That's all.

I will not set the account to public.

Why?

Because it makes no difference whether he set it to public or not.

The graph will still be rejected as not enough spins.

Setting his account to public won't change anything. Still too few spins.

All of you are waiting for handouts.
Admit it.

Not me.
So I say, Turbo just post the graph.
You have no obligation to set your account to public.
After all these years, now you decide to give handout?

To the rest of the crowd, throw rotten tomatoes and eggs. Who cares. Lol

 

Its not a handout since its not a method he'd play, just another demonstration. Was the dip too deep? maybe hence not posted anything yet.
Don't worry even if half of use here would figure out a profitable way to win, we won't take away money from you, still plenty to go around, casinos not closing their doors.

 

Yes it matters not.

Even when it is laid out to work out a winning method it's passed over.

No-one can be bothered to even add numbers, they rather argue what should not even be arguable when painstakingly explained and layed out. Counting to 7 is too hard, they stop at 3.

I question why even share any insights as it just gets trashed by the usual suspects and the rest can't be bothered to use a calculator.

Seems that way. It's impossible to teach a man to fish on here.

 

I tried to teach on 3 forums. Yes, 3 forums.

It's not only impossible.
I get bashed for teaching. Lol

This is my personal experience.

People have their staunch believe.

What's impossible is to change their belief.

Each one have different set of belief.

There are many veteran losers who have given up.

Tbh I don't blame anyone.

It's my personal opinion.
Don't try to catch fish in the casino.
You don't make a good fisherman.

 

How does it differ from what I said?

Anyway - main what I wanted to say is that the casino cant loses when it has an edge and the player cant win - when he does not have an edge!

 

Benas, do you realise that deep down even the losers know that?

 

I’ve got zero interest in personally getting anything out of it, I’m happy with my process. I’m always interested in constructive talk on roulette and seeing things demoed. I have publicly demonstrated in the past, warts and all so people can see the ups and downs and make their own judgements.

I asked a few weeks back if his method was demonstrated publicly anywhere and the answer is no so I said fine and wished him the best. He started this thread saying he was going to go public with it so I thought great, let’s see it. If it hasn’t worked out as expected then it’s fine, nothing wrong with saying that if you see ways of improving in the future and I’ll wish him and everyone else the best of luck.