TurboGenius When does it lose ?

@ TwoUp, it seems you can't even read. Please post the link to where I said that. The rows of the truth table are mutually exclusive, obviously.

Where did I say they didn't? And the best chance of getting a profit in percentage terms is 27.3%. But you are arguing that because the total number of rows which include 2 or more hits is 56%, you can make a profit:

Do you still maintain that this is true?

 

(Like)

 

You have a chance to help.

When you get access to the details of Turbo's session later today, make a post about the statistical significance.

 

Will do.

 

It's hard to see the advantage of this play I agree. @TwoUp focuses on the "at least 2 hits in 69" part, so lets break it down (not sure its been done as so much noise in this thread and you throw messages quicker than a machine gun).
Exactly 0 hits in 69 spins is a 15% probability (so -69u)
1 hit in 69 spins is 29% (-33u)
2 hits in 69 spins 27% (+3u)
3 hits in 69 spins 17% (+39)
4 hits in 69 spins 7.8% (+75)
5 hits in 69 spins 2.8% (+111)
We can leave alone other marginal probabilities and play your average 99 sessions, 0 and 1 hitters are losers giving -1992units loss in 44 session, then we get our winning sessions 55 of them (yes i am disregarding an odd 6+ since chance are slim of that happening) your profit is 1639u lets say you get lucky and win 2 sessions extra with 6 hits that still makes it only 1933u profit. Do you still see an advantage here?

IF you say, well I can stop at 1st win if it happens in first 10 spins for example, but then you dont know if that number would get to 4 hits or maybe 6 or stay at 1. I guess you could wait for first hit that removes the 15% risk your number will make -69, but then again your number hits on spin 1 and 2nd hit comes only at spin 69.

 

Here another one in excel.

Played 69 spins.

The percentage is cumulative (meaning bigger or equal to hits ((1 hit of greater happens x amount of times etc etc.))

500 Sessions



behind it where on average the hits took place.

 

I dont know how you calculate the averages, but do you also calculate the LOSS at the end of each cycle???

Meaning for example we get 3 hits, 1 on spin 10, 2 on spin 30 and 3th hit on spin 50. Do you add the -19 from the end where you did not get any hits any more. I think a lot of people mis that.

 

Its not averages its just probability of exactly that many hits on one, 2 etc. numbers in 69 spins and splitting it into sessions as the results would be per expected probability, so yes I calculate each session as an outright outlay of -69 units + whatever was the amount of wins. There is nothing special about my example just showing that unless some specific approach is taken on the face value 2 hits or more per 69 spins does not give any advantage you'll end up with your usual minimum -2.7% loss.

 

Exactly thats what I calculated to. So what's the deal with 56% more? This is just a statistic value.

 

It's simple. Since it is impossible to predict what will happen; aka DR.AA, axiom, you must guess. So keep the one tactic guessing the hottest most active number currently going. Don't ask for magical clues, know. You guys are math guys, know the most currently active hottest number, even though there is no prediction process happening with that.

You can do that as the session evolves. You might have to select from several numbers, but go with one.

Now start to bet it for up to 18 spins where you will stop betting it flat if it never wins by the completion of that 18 spin. If it never wins then it is a single lost EC bet on your score card.

Keep a running record of your play like this wwLwLLwwwwL. It should be a short single line that you have going. Each "w" or "L" is 18 spins. Ten characters would represent 180 spins bet on. You will know how well you are doing by the number of wins vs the number of losses. Very simple tracking method.

The only way to lose that session is a swarm of losses.

Now the part about upping the payoff percentage. Every win will not be at the 18th spin. Some will be at the 10th, the 6th, the 3rd etc... All these bets that are earlier wins than the 18th spin pay more. That's the upped percentage. So if the best that you can do is guess right as many times that you guessed wrong then you still come out ahead.

So it pays you to know the nature of the hottest most currently active numbers. It's been demonstrated and shown at this forum somewhere. I think I might have given way an App that simulates this in the download section for software. You can assemble your own research and then know these things for yourself. You are a math guy. You can do this.

All you need is a skill. You won't find a magic fairy hiding under a mushroom telling you the hottest most currently active numbers. You don't get to put you mind in neutral and have the casino become your very own personally paying off ATM machine. You must work for it with cognitive skills, not cognitive dissonance.

 

I am a Turbo fanboy I guess you could say that, but there still has to be some sense and an advantage to be taken, while with that 56% statistic I see none. A lot of the past "math" examples from Turbo while % shown in theory give an illusion of potential advantage I was never able to find an angle like many others how to profit long term, even with mild progression.
As mentioned in my thread, cant find the reset point or point where you'd remove the out of favor now numbers from your selection to win more than expected.

 

So are you looking for a rule that always works or are you looking for a skill at guessing that is good enough to live with?

 

@TurboGenius we are a lot of pages down the road lol. However could you still explain why over at RF you said the following over and over again?(in the same context) (not trolling)

 

Gizmo I know your way works at least in testing, not practical for me to play this even online.

 

It's not my way. I'm just spit balling it in the hottest number category. I got my answer from Mr J ( Ken ) a few years back. He found the way to come off of the hottest numbers that enter cold spots and yet still remain the hottest numbers otherwise.

I'm never going to play for 8 to 10 hours sitting on a stool getting hemorrhoids. Talk about boring. I like the casino. It has food courts, movie theaters, shows, comedians, sports bars. I get in, grab some money, and spend the rest of the time goofing around. I also play Craps just to break even and play along with all that BS excitement that happens when anyone goes on a streak.

 

Thats main issue for me, coming off the hot numbers. I did notice when done the horse racing testing, that top numbers once starting to hit they hit in streaks a lot of times, but again not always which is the problem, so might have 5 hot numbers, you get 1 hit, you start playing them a lot of times you'll get another hit in 1-6 spins or even more than one hit, but then many times (as expected I guess) you will not get a hit for a long time. So glad you have a way of playing on hottest apart from your EC play, but I am not there yet.

 

You are asking the right questions. I hope you find the answers. I believe it is in knowing the typical nature of hottest numbers that you will figure out your answer.

 

So can you say, from where cames that war, or say better - attacks, from peoples who cant run 100m in 10 sec against these who, probably can ?
Because ability to make rights calculations in roulette is something similar to ability run faster than 10 sec in 100m run...

 

Variance is one of those squishy words that means different things to different people.

"Variance quantifies the notions of upswing and downswing. It is the difference between the outcome expected over the long term and the results experienced in the short term."

 

One thing you can certainly do is track the variance and then play accordingly. For sure, none of us can guarantee or predict the next spin but something will either continue for a short while or possibly a long while or it will break on the next very spin. As others have said, you only lose one bet on the break. I think it's sound advice to play what you are seeing in front of you and not try to impose your own game when it's not happening.