TurboGenius When does it lose ?

I like to warn you if I can Median Joe but I cant guaranty anything, yet something else is getting closer so always put your cup down when you read my post, lol.

Rinad

 

after playing a Marathon roulette at a BM casino for 14 hours attacking the last 6 sleepers on a wheel, I have had long conversations with numbers, and they gave me 900 units profit.
numbers, from what they told me, they dont like people giving them names, like sleepers, or hotties.
they said they are much more then that, and wont be tamed easily.
we are both, they said, we are "sleepers and hotties" always at the same time . we can turn on a dime !
I have to said they are telling the truth. in many of my sessions, (13 all together), I recall that after they woke up from being dormant , some were hitting 3 times within 30 spins while others were not. so in a way I played sleepers and hotties at the same time since they take their masks off at time. after a number get hit 3 or 4 times in a short period I let it go . the key is timing and the hardest part is knowing when to raise a base bet and when to lower it, just my 2 cents. playing 6 numbers a 1000 units should be plenty. 10 to 40 % of a target win is enough. one more thing, if you come back from a serious draw down , meaning you made back your way up to be even, dont push it and take the 0 profit and 0 loss, be happy !
God bless ,
Rinad

 

In the last 2 days of playing
the wheel at Evolution in about 3 hours of play I saw four sets of numbers come up three times in a row. Like 12 12 12 or 29 2929. In the long term this is a somewhat rare event. In the extreme short-term I just saw it four times in three hours of play. What does it mean? That anything can happen in the short term and usually does.

 

But it's not the money that matters. The wheel cares not if I bet or not and variance will always manifest.

I could have just observed the wheel and been exposed to virtual positive variance and house edge that you say must be paid back in the future. Or maybe I was at home running my roulette simulator and was exposed to some negative variance, then go into a B&M casino. Does that actually influence future outcomes to "even up" the variance I've witnessed?

I've maintained every spin and every session is independent. The past does not influence the future.

Whatever variance and house edge I am exposed to in a session is paid for fully in the session. There is no creeping death.

I explained how regression to the mean applies to the average of the outcomes, the results themselves where variance occurs and sessions are played diverge away from the zero line and continue to do so the longer one plays.

Your long term perspective is very myopic and ignores the fundamental statistical characteristics. The long term average has the detail washed out and is a useless point of view that you Sir AA believe to be significant when it actually is not relevant at all. Just repetitive WoV regurgitation you got schooled on.

If you understand the effects of compounding, early gains can repay the negative variance from the interest when it occurs.

If you understand the arcsine law you will see that gains do get locked in and winners are above the line and rarely cross the line, same goes with losers, they mostly remain on the losing side.

It's just a math thing.

 

He's (snowFuck or is that sknowShit?) just trying to form fit math.

 

As usual I asked this question with a good reason, that readers may learn something.

There's a difference between knowing something and learning something with deep meaningful understanding.

You have written the list of possible strategies.

My question,

Have you found one strategy to have a positive edge that overcomes house edge?

If your position is "I found a strategy that work but I know it fails in the long run" then you have not yet found the positive edge systems bet. Positive edge don't stop itlr.

A true positive edge systems strategy wins,

1. Flatbet,
2. The more you play the more you win,
3. This positive edge is stable, consistent and indisputably clear,
4. The strategy work on any wheel in any casino. It's universal.

I wrote this in my thread on Steve's forum.
There is no such thing as a loser systems strategy. If your systems strategy doesn't win it does not mean it's a loser. You pay house edge cost for playing this game. If this game pays fairly no one pay house edge cost, the casinos earn nothing.

For those of you who use this word loser, you don't understand math.

Why do I highlight this simple point?

Because it's important to understand this basics. Many people don't understand the basics. Small improvement in correct knowledge makes you understand this game better.

Back to your list of strategies.

I recommend to explore, research the following strategies,

1. Regression to the mean(TurboGenius). There are hotties, sleepers and normal. You have to understand what you are exploiting. Most people don't give this a thought. It's important you do this.

An expert rtm player told me his method. I asked what is he exploiting? Why must his rtm strategy have the positive edge? The orderliness and/or chaos of rtm - random walk and levy flight.

2. Birthday paradox math(Vaddi). If you the person who likes to play around with math, search for symmetry, creative out of the box ideas then this is the systems strategy for you. There is less testing work more figuring out brain work to do.

I posted the link. TRD highlighted the math. Read TRD's post, he has done a lot of work on it. He has many threads on various forums(I suggest to put all of your thread content in one goto thread). Too bad, there's very little interest. People don't know this is the method that gives true positive edge when done correctly.

From what I assess the posts on here there are 2 groups, one like to do testing, coding and testing and more testing. The other group prefer to do thinking, figuring out the why what, when, where, how...

The aim is to be an expert. Yes, expert. If you're not at expert level you can't overcome house edge consistently.

Knowing is as useless as not knowing.

If you're not an expert you're no different from the rest of the millions of gamblers.

There's TurboGenius.
There's Vaddi.
Make the correct choice for yourself.
You just need to be expert in one strategy.

 

SirNoOne,

Your best post has to be,

Why must your bet overcome the house edge?

Btw did you copy that from WoV? Lol

 

There's a group of veteran members actively posting or actively lurking on forums.

After so long playing the game their experience make them either believer or naysayer. Even among believers, there's naysaying content. It's important to note this.

I notice their posts show positivity "I play it my way"

or lots of negativity can't be done sign of a bitter loser.

If you're the positive veteran who "play it my way" that win, good for you. Your posts liven up forums. Post more often.

If you're the loser veteran like the millions of gamblers, seek help instead of fill forum with your bitterness.

 

So .. regarding PhP .. to wrap it up ..

you're saying that due to the payout's there no point looking into designing a hermetically enclosed one-cycle system ..
but at the same time assigning it paramount importance, as an ingredient, within a consistently winning system;

in form of &or combined with BP.


I wonder what I'm missing, if anything.

 

Thanks for the explanation Ed, appreciate it.
Can i make a suggestion to this?
Isn't it better (more safe) to make use of all the lines instead of only focusing on one section only? The only thing a player would need is a pen and paper to keep track when the last number of each line shows up (first time we place a unit on a number). To deal with the zero (also part of the bunch) is to start playing it when it has not shown in the first 37 spins. If it does show up before that, we just ignore it. Playing this way, we are covering all the board instead of one location, wich is always a bad thing because of the sleeping spins in between hits. And we are only dealing with a max of 13 numbers, wich many don't mind at all (when having the bank to support it ofcourse). As a progression i would use a 1-2-4-8 in each dozen section in order when it shows up for the first time. So when #1 is the first one to show (last of 1-2-3) we place 1 unit on it. When #4 for example is the second one (last of 4-5-6) we place 2 units on it. When #7 is the last one to show (in line 7-8-9) we place 4 in units on it. And when for example #12 is the last one to show in 10-11-12 and is the last one from dozen 1 we place 8 units on it.
We do this for all the lines in each dozen.
Only remove a number once it got his second hit (first show - bet - second show - remove).
We reset everything on first profit or when our target goal is reached. See pictures below for example. What do you think Ed?

 

What are you exploiting?

What is birthday paradox math all about?
The probability of no match for a given number of people. Or you can think in reverse.

Compare the 2 graphs, birthday paradox and entropy. They have similar shape. Think hard, think deep.

 

Make a nice simple score card for yourself, copy it 31 times (1 session per day for a whole month).
I would not use my scorecard shown below, but a nice made one in excell () Take that with you to your bm and don't forget to bring a pen, lol.
It's very easy to keep track of things this way and you can also note how many units are used on a number.
Just a thought.
One more tip;
Use a EGT and never use your casino card!!!!!

 

there are many ways to be a consistent winner and each one has to find his own way. one can spend 30 years going from system to system and never get anywhere. each time I used to read of another "super system" it gave me a rush, like thousands of you, and then i go spend weeks on testings , sometime achieving wonderfull results.
next thing I know I go to a casino and nothing works. like a youngster going to war , I went through training camp and busted my a....learned everything I was told to, but after jumping off that aircraft into that war zone, the second I felt a bullet whistle next to my ear, all the classes I went through for years I felt had nothing to do with what I was experiencing now. Now I was on "survival mode". staying alive.
your bankroll is like "air" in a casino and I must protected it so it can protect me and take me to where ever I am going, at all cost.
my advice is ; dont spend too much time in class but spend some time in the arena . we all think that the magical cookie cutter system is the answer so that we will get consistency for ever, feel safe financialy for the rest of our lives, ect.......
dreams can come trough or it might not, I dont know.
but reality always comes through and you can bet on that.
dealing with real money is not the same as "virtual or play money". can you really follow a rule that demands more from you then you can give ?
when you bring in 1000 units and you know you are getting close to "go bust" but because you saw in your training that after hundreds of sessions you never went bust, are you willing to still make those bets ? and follow through ? we are humans and we at times get tempted to "take a loss" to live another day, or to really put that system to the test ?
then while you are on the verge of continuing you ear a small voice that tells you " maybe that game is rigged?" and I am the only player here?
all types of crazy Sh...happens in real play that we dont experience at home. and time can be so much slower ,like a nightmare when you feel a pain you never experience at practice. because at home when you are down lots of units, the push of the mouse on your laptop that enables you to play so much faster, you can never feel the emotion of pain, a few more "clicks" and you are back in profit, Yeah, much like the push of a "morphine" drip you get yourself at a hospital when you want to feel better.
no such luck in a casino, you have to just "sit" there and go through the downers one after the other, until you come out victorious on the other side. then everything is allright again.
playing 6 or 5 numbers is my personal favorite . I know if i dont hit within 7 spin with 5 numbers I get into the minus, since statistically the odds say I should get a hit. but often I can see my numbers hit every 9 or 11 spins instead. how do I solve this problem, I will do that.. everytime I get a hit I will skip 3 spins before jumping in again. I call that Rythme betting. winning by not betting is perfect . it works well and get my timing perfectly on time. so when I think about it, it makes sens that most often then not I wont get repeats after a number hit when playing 5/6 numbers.
so when my number dont show up and i dont play its a win! I am saving tons of dough !
once in a while I dont like if I see i would of won , but it is okay by me. repeats on long shots dont happens that much, try it. ec's they do but that is the nature of it since you play 18 numbers.
Rythme betting is simply making use of "skips" after winning to stretch your play.
very often after seing a number hit 3 times in a short period it seems to vanish , where did it go ? it can be a top number as well, doing better then most in terms of 1/37 .
I pick a hot number that I know it is a favorite but will create space before I jump in. that can work the best in certain games .
i am willing to give up early wins for future hits . every game has its solution baked in and learning what is "happening" or the language the numbers are speaking today can be rewarded.
just my way of looking at them,

Rinad

 

When at your bm, your scorecard may look something like this....see picture.

nothing special, in terms of chart, just steady profit.

I had one number left, but no need to chase that one. (+489 profit in 117 spins)
adjust playstyle to your own likings.
The above posts were just my ideA how to play turbo's version.

 

23 .. 100 constitutes 50% chance
8.51 .. 37 ≈ SU

suggests in 8 numbers there's just below 50% to pair .. or find a repeat within; fine, nothing new.
what's new??

there ain't really 9 quads .. but 37/4= 9.25
2.1275 .. 9.25 ≈ Q


related to ≈50%
playing 8 numbers - as 2Q is using @TwoUp's logic .. suggests that the optimal betting to get 2Q = 2≥ hits is 8-9 spins =54.3%




but that's the binomial probability only, doesn't take into account yet .. what's happening on the table, the actual outcomes -- which is where entropy comes in=measuring change, measuring the rate of change, measuring the rate of the rate of change


so here's two dimensions -- the static binomial distribution probability + the dynamic measuring what's actually happening within it (its context); in various orders of change

funny thing is that, at least in my mind, meanwhile the BD is static, as in so many subject within a group with preassigned values .. the PhP is dynamic, as in so many eg. spins has to happen for the groups to actually form/fill up -- element of time, change


although .. BP & PhP by itself .. there 18/19 pairs from an SU point of view, less on other districts -- with the possibility of the repeat, which invalidates the concepts hermetic aspect realizing in roulette -- which constitutes the options of either betting for a pair-counterpart to complete (repeat of number appearance also possible) or betting a whole pair for any counterpart of the pair appearing.



you are saying to couple both .. the conceptual =binomial distribution aspect with the measuring of 'what's currently happening within the outcomes' outcomes, specifically the change within the inevitable completion of binomial distribution .. whichever permutation takes place at the end

since there's no guarantee of hit =completion, the only possible quantification possibly to rely upon is the measure of parameters of intensity & frequency of the outcomes, specifically short-term change -- the parameters the field of harmonics deals with too



??

 

Your bankroll carries over from one session to the next. The random walk moving forward is for you to lose at the house edge. The longer you play, the more you will lose, until you eventually lose enough that you will never break even again.

Nonsense. The money that you lose in a session doesn't magically reappear the next time you enter the casino.

Regression to the mean is not a winning strategy, and I've said this repeatedly now. In the paragraph above, it supports my argument, but contradicts your previous arguments. It's weird how you contradict yourself sometimes.

I'm going to rewrite what you did above, and replace the word variance with the word luck so you can hopefully grasp just how absurd your claim really is. "If you understand the effects of compounding, early gains can repay the bad luck from the interest when it occurs." Now, you have to admit, that sounds pretty silly! In short you're claiming that good luck is enough to overcome bad luck, which is absurd. Luck/variance is a double edged sword, but the house edge is very real. In the long term, luck just isn't enough to overcome the house edge, regardless of how you raise or lower your bets. It's for the same reason that you can't multiply a negative number time a positive one and produce a positive outcome.

Best of luck,

Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

 

Because luck is NOT a winning strategy.

 

This is true if you were stupid enough play a random game against random numbers. If you can successfully guess the next outcome more often than not none of what you said there is true. If you are not doing that then yes, every session is connected because random numbers are not connected to each other, you can jump in and jump out as often as you want and it's still the same game. If however you can successfully guess the next outcome more often than not you now have the edge over the casino and the casinos edge doesn't mean squat. Just like card counting where you have the edge over the casino. That's why if you can do this you are the casinos worst enemy.

 

Thanks for nothing. Very important points you made. Applause.

 

Wrong. If your method of play has a rate of failure that is sufficiently low to multiply a bankroll several times, any future loss and house edge is paid from multiplied profits. It doesn't take much to have a method that provides sustainability, even with a terrible 1 in 70 failure rate it is possible to build a position of 5 reserve bankrolls that can only be bust in a 1 in billion event. And at that point the bust is only accumulated profits, the original starting bankroll and profits have long been extracted.

You continue to ignore the effect of bankroll management. But then again, you say money management is all nonsense and doesn't matter.

Nooe is arguing that house edge must be paid. It's just a thin tax on income and far cheaper than any other tax I have to pay.

What you fail to understand is the house edge and the variance is crystalised in the session. There is no hidden monster creeping up. You end the session either in profit or at a loss, the casino doesn't have an invisible curse on my money for the next session.

Nonsense. I never mentioned anything of the sort. I said that whatever variance and house edge we are exposed to is paid for in the session. Why say I said something else? I noticed this is a particular habit of yours to take what someone says and turn it into something else or the exact opposite of what was said.

Again you say things I never said like the fucktard you are. I never mentioned anything about any strategy. I explained the concept of how regression to the mean is misunderstood and applies to the average and not the actual events, the actual events diverge and continue to diverge.

The significance of this is why you are wrong with your long term average viewpoint. Actuals are not built on the average of millions of simultaneous sessions which is what your incorrect viewpoint is based on, which is the casino viewpoint of many players. Clearly individual results of random walks are diverging away from zero and not heading toward zero. About half win and half lose, but you say everyone loses.

The rest of your post is unscientific nonsense making up statements that were never written, but to be expected from a clown.