1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

TurboGenius When does it lose ?

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Nov 14, 2021.

  1. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    290
    Location:
    Japan
    First you calculate "x" for a smaller location at the probability you're comfortable with, say 70+%.

    Since "x" may be a large number you adjust it by trimming some numbers to make it a EC bet. Use the probability calculator to do this.

    In actual play I use "x" +1 to time my bets.
     

    Attached Files:

    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021
    thereddiamanthe likes this.
  2. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2019
    Likes:
    298
    Occupation:
    apicem rapax DNME
    Location:
    Empfire
    I guess ≈500 spins of ≈85% successfull & actually bet EC outcomes would be a great gauge, a 1000 even better .. need no more for that high % claim to be proven.
    & since its all 'cannot be programmed' noone will be wiser at the end.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021
  3. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2019
    Likes:
    298
    Occupation:
    apicem rapax DNME
    Location:
    Empfire
    No, it wouldn't .. with proper AI .. learning with you the way you play .. observing & teaching itself .. in not a so short while it would already copy you matching your results .. & further with its exponential learning curve outperform you not long after that.

    For fuck sake .. planes & you have cars with much better efficiency lately you driving autonomously .. & only getting better.

    But yeah, you can't do that with/in a spreadsheet.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021
  4. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,044
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    You are OK with that and so am I.

    I love it. To me that is just mathematically oriented magical math thinking. You see order or formations in randomness and see an unnecessary risk. I see a bag of large nuggets of gold that I would have picked up and enjoyed the fact that I knew exactly how to kill off the suspension of disbelief that so many others lack the skill to recognize.
     
  5. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2019
    Likes:
    298
    Occupation:
    apicem rapax DNME
    Location:
    Empfire
    Now, how's ≈16% related to 50 ??
     
  6. Shank

    Shank Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 29, 2021
    Likes:
    84
    Location:
    Earth
    Next time think about why something that has not been likely to ever happen since the big bang to the end of the time just happened in front of you. Take care of your hard-earned nuggets, or whatever you call your money.
     
  7. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    868
    Location:
    midwest
    That stuff is way above my pay grade. All I know is you can't test it the regular way that you would test a system. Too many variables. You are always looking to make a few units and get out. With testing people are always looking for a way to play roulette where you make bet after bet after bet and win. Personally I think that's impossible and it is certainly not what I do.
     

  8. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,044
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    I have preached endlessly of the virtue of exploiting the "Elegant Pattern" for decades at the church of the living randomness. When I see it my eyes bug out as I'm about to cause a huge crowd to form. It happens every time. And I massacre the casino as long as it lasts. I'm glad most people don't see it this way. Someday it will be too late. Once the Elegant Pattern is widely known to be the greatest opportunity in gambling then everything will have changed. I don't care if you never see the light. But I'm glad you are happy going your own way.
     
  9. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,044
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    It's possible with AI. I know first hand because I wrote a version of the practice software to show how with just a few characteristics and interval changes the software can make good enough bet selections to beat Roulette. I knew that it would not work all the time as I know that trends and patterns go in and out of phases of it working. So My AI software example looked for that too. The problem with doing the job of creating such a machine to do AI is that you need to include so much considerations to evaluate conditional awareness that it would take millions of lines of code.

    That software is here for free use and downloading so that you can see that a simplified version of AI does work at times. I don't use double dozens anymore. It's too volatile.
     
  10. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    940
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    And The probability of a number not hitting in 69 spins on a SINGLE zero wheel is 15.1%!

    You're purposefully forgetting about the numbers that don't hit or that have only hit once, you're also ignoring the fact that the payout is short. If you add them all up, you'll find that the house edge is still there! So exactly what is the purpose of the binomial dist. calc.??? (Please don't say that you have just the right progression to make it work!)

    It reminds me of the people that say that they have the edge if they bet the first and second dozen because it has a 63% chance of winning on the double zero wheel.

    On a side note there are some silly squad members that feel that they can exploit repeats on the double zero wheel because the probability of a repeat on a double zero wheel within 8 numbers is 54.65%. That may seem exciting, but it's still short of what's required to win based on the house payoff.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021
  11. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    940
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica

    Lucky,

    Why do you feel that calculating the probability of winning enables you to side step the house edge, since the payout is always short of the probability of winning???
     
  12. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    868
    Location:
    midwest
    Winning more than you're losing consistently is all the testing I need. And knowing why it works. People were counting cards in blackjack long before Edward Thorp proved that it worked with a computer. Before him all the players needed for proof was that it won consistently. If there is ever a roulette system that can be tested and proved to win that will be the end of the game as we know it. Just like Edward Thorp ended blackjack as it was played and the casinos totally changed the game.
     
    gizmotron and thereddiamanthe like this.
  13. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2020
    Likes:
    248
    Location:
    England
    The key take-away from Dr Sir's post is this : if every sequence of the same length is equally likely, and when using any bet selection you're necessarily using one of those sequences, it follows no bet selection is better than any other, for ANY location.
     
    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone likes this.
  14. Benas

    Benas Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2018
    Likes:
    159
    Occupation:
    Looking for peoples who play better...
    Location:
    Ania,PL
    Looks like if you slight bragging himself :).

    Can you show that part of code, which does machine learning?
    I himself slightly use something similar, but that is far from AI...
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021

  15. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2020
    Likes:
    868
    Location:
    midwest
    Accurately guessing what's coming next defeats all gambling games. Probability goes out the window. The house edge goes out the window. This is why casinos hate card counters. They can make accurate guesses on when to up their bets. They don't think that can be done in roulette. They think the game is unbeatable.
     
    gizmotron likes this.
  16. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 26, 2020
    Likes:
    290
    Location:
    Japan
    SirNoOne,
    Learn basic probability - understand the difference between probability of an event and probability distribution.

    Your 100 1s in 100spins don't qualify for random spins. Get your facts right instead of copy and paste from WoV
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021
    TwoUp and TurboGenius like this.
  17. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 8, 2015
    Likes:
    310
    Card counter DO NOT accurately guess anything. They have an EDUCATED guess based of cards that are left in the shoe/deck. This same reasoning CANNOT be done on roulette, no matter how hard you try and convince anyone. This is exactly why you EVENBOB spend your eternity on the internet and not in casinos. We know damn well your whole life story, gambling included, is a fairytale.

    The SMARTEST thing for you to do is to shut the hell up and go away! With every single new post you make, and you have MILLIONS of them over the internet, you just keep showing your stupidity!
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021
    Median Joe likes this.
  18. Benas

    Benas Active Member

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2018
    Likes:
    159
    Occupation:
    Looking for peoples who play better...
    Location:
    Ania,PL
    Why :D ?
    Ok then sequence 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9...35,36,0,00 this sequence is random ? which are more random this , or 1,1,1,1,....1,1,1,1 :(?
     
  19. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,044
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    Just for the record I said that one day I would do it and maybe ten years past until I did do it. I did it to facilitate bet selections so that I would not have to answer endless questions on the basics.

    Here is what bragging looks like. I piloted an airplane down the face of Half Dome in Yosemite with the wheels as close as 4ft away from the shear face. That was probably a first. Now most people would think a death wish or crazy. I have always thought that most people have wasted their lives chasing expectations that they have heaped upon themselves out of a commitment to conformity and stature. I think they are crazy and confined to a rigid blindness. You can't cancel me your your guilt trip. Stop being a control freak. It shows just how desperate you are to be accepted. It's a waste of your time mostly.
     
  20. gizmotron

    gizmotron Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2015
    Likes:
    3,044
    Occupation:
    Retired
    Location:
    The West Coast of USA, RV'ing
    Hm? Again with the situational expectations. It doesn't have to use machine learning. It just has to think like a skilled Reading Randomness player. There is no way that I'm going to try to form fit my own software ideas into already used class libraries and extraneous code. I wrote it in a fourth generation language with Object Oriented original functions, commands, and controls.
     
    Last edited: Nov 23, 2021

Share This Page