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TurboGenius When does it lose ?

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Nov 14, 2021.

  1. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    SirNoOne, MJ and Benas understanding of probability is limited to probability of an event.

    To them probability distribution doesn't exist.

    To their understanding random means equal likelihood which is wrong.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
  2. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Its said the best illusion(s) contains pieces of truth ..
    ..................................................↓................................................
    that's what the bridge-too-far-away-crew is (→fading away←) doing, 'borrowing from' science & rubbing on its 'upstanding' reputation → "the" truth .. is allegedly nonsense, silly, frilly
    ..................................................↑................................................
    that basing something on partial truth, providing the intent is success, is the most dangerous.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
  3. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    There's no reason to calculate the binomial distribution. A "confidence interval" is of no value, and will in no way help you overcome the house edge. However, Chi square has it's uses when determining the fitness of the wheel.


    Every 100 spins of the roulette wheel represents a string of numbers that you will never see happen in that exact order ever again, and that one unique string is just as rare as 100 ones in a row.

    I didn't post a betting system.

    Defining the distribution of outcomes in the random game doesn't enable you to side step or exploit probability to your advantage since each spin of the wheel is an independent trial. Believing otherwise is the gambler's fallacy. If you believe otherwise, then feel free to explain why you're not a fool.


    Yes, I did indeed specify the sequence.


    I'm not sure what it is that you're trying to say above, and I suspect that you don't either. And what is a "nonsene?"I posted two specific sequences in order to make a point regarding probability. I'm sorry that you couldn't comprehend it. Perhaps there's an adult in your home that could read it and explain it to you like they would explain it to a child. If you'd like, I'll consider rewriting it using smaller words and shorter sentences so that it's easier for you to comprehend.

    Best of luck,

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
  4. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    What's your question?


    Where did you get the wild idea that I need one spin to test a system? I can debunk 99.9% of systems just reading about the system.
    Also, I don't need any spins to find a biased wheel. Tracking spins in order to find a unicorn would be terribly inefficient.

    I said that each unique string of spins had the same probability of hitting...which is, of course, true.


    I didn't test a system, I made a post regarding probability, that appears that have gone over your head.

    Each spin of the roulette wheel is an independent trial, since the same number of pockets remain on it from one spin to the next. If you believe otherwise, then look down, and recount the pockets for yourself.

    Please explain where we commit a fallacy.


    Why would betting on a unique pattern affect the house edge?



    Debunking a dangerous roulette system is important. It gives the forum balance and helps prevent a wide spread infection of ignorance.

    I never said that you couldn't get lucky in the short term. Variance is the double edge sword that represents luck.



    You probably shouldn't attempt to do what we do in a casino either.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
  5. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Well if you knew what you were talking about why would you use an approximate test vs a binomial exact test.

    You don't even realise the chi squared test is approximate and inferior to the binomial test.

    So you're claiming you noted a specific sequence of 100 spins and THEN witnessed it happen?

    I've heard some bold claims and nonsense from you but that one takes the cake.

    I say prove it.

    Do it again please, note a sequence, here then fuck off and don't come back until it occurs on a live stream with a real wheel.
     
  6. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    It appears that you don't comprehend the purpose of the chi square test. And by the way, it's realize, not "realise". You spell it wrong in post after post. I sometimes misspell words too, but you screw that one up every time you use the word.



    Reread the post or better yet, have an adult read it and explain it to you.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
  7. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    • Violation of Rule #1: Be Respectful
    "realise" is British and "realize" is American. Learn SirNoOne.

    Btw, your roulette computer scammer buddy does a much better job than you.

    You're are no more than the typical copy cat besides your usual copy paste math from WoV. Well, your best shot is chi. You call yourself expert for that teeny weeny math. Lol

    SirNoOne,

    Psst... there are thousands of student who solve chi test exam questions.
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
    TurboGenius and TwoUp like this.

  8. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Oh, I don't know about that, I'm pretty damn good!
     
  9. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    SirNoOne,

    You are expert at nothing. Lol

    Rc expert takes the AP crown with his 150% edge.

    He served time for the scamming title.

    You are best in nothing. Lol
    At least Benas some.
    You, why that wobbly wheel wobbles no more? Lmao!!!
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
  10. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    c4e1351580b6a25ccfc725b97a3558d8.jpg

    What can I say, I'm a lowly old old blind man with a pet monkey, and an organ grinder.
    I play the organ grinder and the monkey...well...he collects the money. :)
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
  11. Luckyfella

    Luckyfella Well-Known Member

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    Can you share your secret how you keep the monkey collecting? Some gypsy tune?
     
    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
  12. Quos

    Quos Member

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    Last edited: Nov 25, 2021
  13. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    This remind me of someone...lol

    You told us the analogy of the lottery before.

    What about this than?


    69343957 people go to the casino

    They each pick an unique string of 5 numbers as their "lottery" ticket (and they let the bet ride)

    1 1 1 1 1 shows up

    The one guy with 1 1 1 1 1 wins 60466176

    You standing there shaking your head he could never have won because the 5 1's were not random?
     
  14. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    I loved that video I even saved it to my harddrive. :)
     
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  15. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

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    Here is the apple analogy again:

    It is estimated that 1 billion people have an iphone. (you can google this)

    Now lets say the average song list on peoples phone is 1000. Way bigger than roulette right!

    Now lets say for the sake of argument they all use the apple native music app.

    And listen to 10 songs on average per day per person.

    That's 10 billion songs played per day!

    the change of getting 4 songs in a row (on average) is 1 in 12 billion!

    You see after a few day there were some people who were getting 4 times the same song in a row! Can you imagine being one of these people you click shuffle and you get the same song over and over again. STUPID APPLE your software is not working!!!

    People started complaining and the Apple engineers had to make the software LESS RANDOM otherwise people would not believe this could happen. (true story you can look it up)

    The chance of getting a number 7 times in a row is a little below 10 billion. Lol

    I think i dont have to explain things any further :)

    P.S.

    This is not a troll post. I have learned a lot from you guys in the process of figuring things out. So for that I'm thankful! But sometimes I would like to address things to that are just not "right" (i just love these discussions guilty as charged :) )

    Thanks for reading!
     
  16. Shank

    Shank Active Member

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    When someone rejects to understand something, the whole world confirms him in his very own language.

    Imagine there is a side game on the Roulette table. You can bet on two options:

    * LAST NUMBER WILL REPEAT 36 TIMES BACK TO BACK
    * LAST NUMBER WILL NOT REPEAT 36 TIMES BACK TO BACK

    You bet and wait for 36 spins to see if you have won or not... then... omg... I'm fucking bored, guys. I can't finish this post, it's too fucking lame. I just can't. Sorry.

    See you 'round.
     
  17. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    What question?

    He never said that 1 spin is enough to test a system, that's just silly.

    Glad you mentioned that, because as I've said before, system players have widely varying views on what constitutes a "good" system, and many are contradictory. But as long as you keep up a united front against the "mathboyz" that's all that matters. :rolleyes:

    Make your mind up Turbo, if we always say it's not enough spins (and we don't actually say that) then no test would ever be good enough, apart from a system beating an infinite number of spins. The reason why many spins are needed to test whether a system works is because (unlike in AP-physics), there is no proof of concept. There is no mathematical, physical or conceptual basis for systems to work so all you can do is run the system until it exceeds several standard deviations. And the fact that a sequence of spins will never occur in the same order again is irrelevant to testing whether a SYSTEM works. There are many tests which can show whether results are significant, and you don't necessarily need thousands of spins if the advantage is strong enough. I already posted one example of a test but there wasn't much interest.

    Where do we ever say that past spins can predict future spins? Past spins can be used to find the distribution, for example when recording them to identify possible bias , but that's not at all the same as saying that some regular pattern X in past spins is reliably followed by pattern Y. You continually make the mistake of equating a distribution, which necessarily has an IDENTITY, or long-term pattern, with the idea that future spins are dependent on past spins, and that random has limits which can be exploited. The fact that a large number of spins has a definite statistical "shape" doesn't mean there is a dependence between sub-sequences contained in it.

    Ok, what topic would you like us to focus on?

    "Random" is a tricky concept which can mean different things depending on the context. How would you define it? How would you define a random sequence? If you look into it you'll see there is no accepted definition, and experts disagree. Here's one I like though, and it's relevant to the recent topic:

    Taken from Statistical Randomness on Wikipedia.
     
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  18. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Me too. I do appreciate them for that, because I know what they're saying is wrong but sometimes it takes a lot of thinking to figure out exactly WHY they're wrong. Probability is tricky and there are more mistakes made and misconceptions around it than in any other math topic. Even the so-called experts can get it wrong and often do.
     
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  19. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Which by none of the casino security, for a lack of better word atm, would deem sufficient &or satisfied with, taking measures to eradicate its further manifestation at any potential point of appearing coupled with the time of noticing it with the sophisticated measures applied pretty much anywhere nowadays.

    Ain't happening. Ain't relevant.


    We are talking roulette here.
     
  20. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    That to answer question I need first know it. Say short and simple, for example like me :
    What is aim of these your talks ? What benefit you have from all that ?

    I think to such questionsis super easy to answer, I them repeated several times , but never got answer back...question - why ?


    Ok here is good example - I many times asked Turbo to write few sequences and point which is random which no. What was answer ? Nothing...

    So, the same question to math guru Luckyfella - write two sequences and point which is random, but which is not :).
    The same can use google and write here say description - what is randomness :)...

    Questions simplies clear and very easy for such math guru as you are ? So wait what you will say :)...
     
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