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Baccarat What are your pre-determined bet selections and the trigger you wait for before placing your bets?

Discussion in 'Baccarat Forum' started by Jon Wick, Sep 8, 2021.

  1. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    I really important question i forgot to ask about your data is this.
    Do you count ties into your statistics?
    You say optimal data is to watch 14 hands and if we have 70% on the Player s side we bet Banker on the next hand.
    Do we count ties to get the percentage or not?
     
  2. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Aiming for +1 per shoe, then, with a progression. I tried that with a martingale and it did make more money that way as long as it did not bust. A 7 step martingale (1 to 64) had no busts in my data. It will bust eventually. When it busted with a shorter progression then it made less money than flat betting.
     
  3. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    No ties in my data. So the first 14 hands would be just B or P decisions only. But you can bet as late as hand 33 if Player is at 70% on hand 32.
     
    Last edited: Dec 12, 2021
  4. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    Thank you i will try to post some real shoes here for everybody to check.
     
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  5. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Active Member

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    Hi BM,

    Thanks for your bet selection and MM strategy.

    In the event that you lose the 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 progression, do you reset to 1 or do you have another recovery MM or progression to recover the lost 31 units.
     
  6. Baccarat Magician

    Baccarat Magician Active Member

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    You reset to 1.

    Usually you want 3 buy ins to start or 93 units, that way if you lose one, you have a couple back ups.

    But if you want to be extra super conservative, bring enough money for 10 buy ins. At $10 units for example, each progression lost is -$310, so you would bring $3,100 if you want to be really safe. I have seen 3, 7 in a rows happen in a shoe (extremely rare). So you want enough, that way you aren't wiped out completely if you hit an unlucky streak of busts. Although most of the time 93 unit buy in will be enough, 10 buy ins is just extra added protection.

    Dont worry, you will occassionally have 10+ shoes in a row where you dont lose a progression at all.

    Let says you have a shoe where you are +9 units. Then in the same shoe the progression 1,2,4,8,16 bust, you aren't down -31 units, your actually down only -22 units. So 2 shoes can usually be enough to help you recover.

    Although, if you really want to push it, you can increase bets to 2,4,8,16,32 after 3 buy ins busts. Its still a 5 step progression, but doubled. Or to put another way, you simply increase unit sizes from $10, to $20, that way recovery is a little faster.

    Any other questions, let me know
     
  7. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    5 Shoes from online tables yesterday.
    Betting from the 16th hand until the end of the shoe.

    1st -5
    2nd -10
    3rd +2
    4th -16
    5th -13

    It s a very small sample but one thing i saw in every shoe was when the Player started strong it was becoming even stronger later in the shoe
    even in the +2 shoe.
    You may made me find a great way or it will turn around and close to your statistics.
    Definitely i will keep checking this.
     
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  8. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Ha. Not a good start. :) At least three of those shoes would be stopped out at -7. Are these 6 or 8 decks shoes?
     
  9. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    I forgot about the -7 rule but it s ok i didn t lose these units i just watched.
    8 deck shoes Evolution Gaming online.
     
  10. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Active Member

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    Thanks BM for your prompt reply.

    How long you have been playing this method? And how many back to back bust that you have encountered so far?

    I'm sure that you are very profitable playing this way.

    Cheers
     
  11. Baccarat Magician

    Baccarat Magician Active Member

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    Been playing this way since way back in 2015. I attached some shoes I played back then on another thread, but my charting is a lot more simpler and easier today.

    I bust all the time..its inevitable..but even if I bust doesnt mean I lose -31 units for the shoes..its more like -21 units for the shoe and you can recover in a couple shoes pretty easily, just takes a little patience. Overall, units are going up slowly and steadily.

    The most busts I had was 3 in 1 shoe..it does happen occassionally, so be aware and prepared.

    Personally, I just keep betting as normal, because that encounter is generally a fluke. Since most casinos never close, its not an issue to sit there for 5 or 6 hours to recover depending on how fast the dealer is dealing..sometimes you get lucky with no players at the table, and unlimited "free hands" so you can get through a shoe in 30-40 minutes or less. Helps build your bankroll back pretty quick.

    If you want to be a little more aggressive, so you can break even quicker, you can double your units and bet 2,4,8,16,32. Also, once you get good, you can start placing bets at more then one table at once. Just cant make mistakes and have very good tracking on your scorecard.
     

    Attached Files:

  12. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Active Member

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    Thanks BM for the explanation.

    Cheers
     
  13. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    I almost did not post this, since I don't want to be the one responsible for sending you to the poorhouse :), but have you tried a Grand Martingale (1, 3, 7, 15, 31)? It is more aggressive and requires a bigger bankroll. You win one unit for every bet placed. On this card that you posted you would have won 27 units instead of 12 units if my math is right. You would earn more units per hour.

    If you decide to try this pull out 100 of your old session cards and see how you would have done. Pay special attention to the worst sessions to see if you would have the stomach (and the bankroll) for it.

    BM Session Card.jpeg
     
  14. Baccarat Magician

    Baccarat Magician Active Member

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    Thanks for the suggestion, I've never tried it. I'll take a look at some my past sessions and see how it performs. Its only 57 units compared to my 31 unit progression, but if it averages more units per shoe, I'll definitely consider implementing it. Thanks
     
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  15. Baccarat Magician

    Baccarat Magician Active Member

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    Tried out your grand martingale method at the casino, performed pretty well. 1 bust in the first shoe I played, but recovered over the next ones. I think I'll use this progression from now on, thanks.
     

    Attached Files:

  16. Joey Torres

    Joey Torres Active Member

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    i BM,
    Hi Fathead,

    Did you test BM method of waiting for 2 P or B then bet opposite. Instead of betting opposite, bet follow until win or 5LIAR after 2P or 2B using 124816 progression.
    P
    P
    Bet P 1 B L
    P 2 B L
    P 4 B L
    P 8 B L
    P 16 B L
    Reset, wait for the break and start betting again after 2P or 2B

    Thanks a million and Happy Holidays.
     
  17. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    I am happy it worked out. It accelerates things a bit. That can be good or bad but you seem to have your routine perfected.
     
  18. fathead

    fathead Well-Known Member

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    Neither one of those test well. BM has been betting this way successfully since 2015 so there is something going on there that I cannot test. I am happy that he is doing well.
     
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  19. Baccarat Magician

    Baccarat Magician Active Member

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    [/QUOTE]
    Yeah it does accelerate things, but also recover just as well. When Im at the table people are always asking what I writing down, I say "just tracking my bets"
     
  20. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    @fathead You are doing a great job . Happy Holidays.

    Nathan Detroit
     
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