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Sports Betting So are you willing to concede laying huge money is not a sound strategy?

Discussion in 'Sports Betting Forum | Sportsbook Forum' started by KewlJ, Mar 31, 2022.

  1. RobSinger

    RobSinger Active Member

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    I'll accept all that you wrote about parlays with a caveated exception regarding "I'm surprised Singer doesn't get this".

    I do get it, now that it's been explained. In the rare instances I bet on sports I do it as a fan and not as a professional. I've had a larger win on a 5-team NFL parlay but that was only made because of something I heard about one of the teams before game time--and I happen to be in a Tahoe casino. So I fall into the "lazy" category I guess. But I was not lazy when I went around LV casinos last summer picking up handfuls of $500 bets on the Tampa Bay Over 11-1/2 win total.

    I saw where monet hit the parlay for $6500 last night. I don't image that happens very often for regular parlay bettors?
     
  2. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    I don't remember the NHL having 10 teams playing over .600 this late in the season.

    The East has 8 of the top 10 teams and 8 bad teams. So the playoffs are set with a month to go.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2022
  3. KewlJ

    KewlJ Well-Known Member

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    That is very misleading and kind of meaningless because of the way the NHL does the overtime. Once a game gets into overtime and both teams get 1 point, the outcome of that game will either be a win, or counted in the separate category (overtime loss). It can't go into the "loss" category. So that will skew the wins and losses.

    This means if a team's looks like a 500 team with wins and losses, they are really under 500 and a team that actually has a losing record is just dreadful, really worse that that record looks.
     
  4. KewlJ

    KewlJ Well-Known Member

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    I also don't think the way the NHL does the 1 point for each team does any good as far as opening up the game to more action, which is one of the complaints about hockey. Once a game is tie past the halfway mark of the 3rd period, teams take fewer risks, and play less aggressively, wanting to assure themselves that first point, while still having a chance to earn the second point in overtime. It just makes both teams more passive and conservative in the final minutes of regulation, not wanting to make a mistake.

    I say, go the other way. Make a tie worth no points. Then both teams will aggressively be trying to win right up until the final horn.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2022
  5. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    From a bet standpoint a win is a win. OtL is a loss. So you combine the loss and OTL.
     
  6. KewlJ

    KewlJ Well-Known Member

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    An overtime loss IS a loss. So why are teams getting points for that? In football, when a team loses in overtimes do they get credit for a partial win? or anything other than a loss? The contest ended with their team having fewer points than the other. THAT is a loss. o_O

    I think hockey realized it is insane to have the game decided with that shootout. That is NOT real hockey. That is like deciding a tie basketball game with foul shots, or deciding a tie football game with a punting contest. So to sooth that hockey came up with this one point for a game that ends tied in regulation. Just stupid. Like I said, that creates a situation where teams are playing for a tie in the final minutes. The sport is boring enough without that.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2022
  7. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    KJ asks; An overtime loss IS a loss. So why are teams getting points for that?

    Tater says: A tie at the end of regulation is worth a point. Widen the goal and/or make the goalie be the size of a jockey and the game would be very exciting.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2022

  8. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    To finish my thought. Most years it is hard to find value because the money lines are -250 for teams that are not that much better. But this year many game are the same price but the teams are significantly better.

    Tampa lightning and New York Rangers are tonight's examples.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2022
  9. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Normally the Milwaukee Bucks -3.5 at home ve LA Clippers would be an excellent value. But both teams have clinched. So limiting minutes is a concern.
     
  10. RobSinger

    RobSinger Active Member

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    It can and should happen more. I originally thought the "truce" might last 9-1/2 minutes at most. But that was wrong. Winning money from casinos is numero uno!
     
  11. Tater

    Tater Well-Known Member

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    Take last week in NHL. 9 wins 3 losses. Money lines were between -145 and -333. The average money line loss was -200. So if you made each bet to win $100, that's $300 profit for the week.

    No if you made a money line bet and a puck line bet profits were significantly higher. All 9 wins were by more than 1 goal.
     
    Punkcity likes this.
  12. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    Just out of curiosity how do you bet in the US? Online or in bookies shops? Also i suppose when you bet online and be profitable the bookies limit you fairly easy like in Europe?
     
  13. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    Of course it can be a profitable long term strategy IF you buy value with your money. Everything depends on that.
     
  14. treetopbuddy

    treetopbuddy Member

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  15. treetopbuddy

    treetopbuddy Member

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    I would never lay that in the NHL. College BB, yes.
     
  16. treetopbuddy

    treetopbuddy Member

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    One persons value is another’s trash….
     
  17. hotjohnnn

    hotjohnnn Member

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    Not true. Real value is calculated by the numbers of an accurate model. Everything else is just opinions...
     
    Last edited: Feb 3, 2023
  18. Ibrahim Somrat

    Ibrahim Somrat New Member

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    Ultimately, successful gambling, trading, or investing requires a combination of skill, knowledge, discipline, and risk management. While it's possible to generate significant profits, it's essential to approach these activities with caution and be prepared for the possibility of losses.
     

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