Slots Wild Mermaid Video Line Game

daily_double, I was able to count everything down in this youtube video of Wild Mermaid. It's a classic example of a banking game.



This is what I was able to deduce from the video. The player started with $100 in credits. He was making the max bet of $2.50. It took him 61 spins to collect the 20 tiles. He had $47 in credits left when he was awarded the free games. He wound up getting 12 free games that returned $21.25.

1. The 61 spins at $2.50 means a total wager of $152.50.
2. Since he had $47 left when he was awarded the free games that means he got dropped for $53.
3. $53 divided by $152.50 means he got dropped for 34.75%.
4. $53 divided by 20 tiles means his average cost to catch a tile was 1.06 bets (2.65/2.50)
5. He wound up getting 12 free games and collected $21.25 from those free games.
6. $21.25 divided by 12 games means the average free game was worth .71 bets (1.77/2.50)
7. So he lost $31.75 which means a return of 79.2%

This is a very small sample space but it's a sure fire bet that the game has a higher return than 79.2%. I would want to collect statistics on this game to determine how many tiles I need to find to make it positive expectation to spin it off. I'm going to collect stats on every play. I carry a small pocket notebook for recording stuff like this. On every play I'm going to write down:

1. At the beginning of every play I'm going to write down how many tiles are left to go.
2. I'm going to count and record the number of spins it takes to collect the rest of the tiles.
3. I'm also going to record the amount of money I got dropped for to collect the rest of the tiles.
4. I'm going to count and record the number of free games I get.
5. I'm going to record the amount of money I won in the free games.

The sample space will grow with every play I get. I'm going to average everything out as the sample space grows. I want to know what the average cost to catch one tile is. What is the average free game worth? What is the average number of free games per play. In the end the statistics will tell me how many tiles I have to find banked to make it a positive expectation play.

I would be willing to invest a little money in losing plays just to get those stats. But I would only do that on the fifty cent bet level.

 

P.S. In the other youtube videos of the game I saw as many as 39 free games awarded.

 

Mickey, I made 8 spins on a slot machine 2 nights ago and the last time I touched a slot was probably 10 years ago, so I have no idea what a classic banking game is. I am assuming it is the tiles broken/collected that you are referring to. Like I said previously, it was your Keno play that woke me up to my friends play. Your attention to detail and analytics has me amazed and you did it very quickly . I carry the little notebook already, for my VP play. I am not going to touch this game unless there only 5 tiles or less that need to be broken and will keep the records to see if this needs to be adjusted. Thanks for the roadmap Mickey, I really appreciate it.

 

Now that I think about it, the last time I touched a slot prior to the other night was closer to 15 years ago. Very interesting that some of these games can be exploited .

 

Yes, the tiles are being "banked" in the Mermaid game. I look for banking features in all slot games. It's what can make the game exploitable to a knowledgeable player. I think your strategy of five tiles or less to go is pretty good. You can tighten up or loosen up after you collect enough stats off the game.

 

Good deal. Since you were kind enough to lay a strategy out for the world to see, I will post some results for the forum in June or July . I have no idea what I will have compiled by then . I get to the casino maybe twice a week and play a lot of VP, so we shall see .

 

It would be interesting to see the stats you collect. Stats tell a big story. In the video the player made 61 spins to collect 20 tiles and got dropped for 35% to get to the free games. During the 61 spins he didn't hit anything spectacular. He made one hit that payed 13 for 1 and a few hits that payed 3 for 1. That's it.

So let's say those stats hold up. Let's say that thru 20 plays you had to collect 80 tiles total. You made 244 spins total to catch those 80 tiles. You got dropped for 85 bets total to collect those 80 tiles.

To start with I will generally assign a tentative overall payback to a game like this at 90%. It could be a point or two lower or higher. But 90% is a pretty good ballpark figure. And a point or two on this play doesn't matter much.

85/244 means you got dropped for 35% rounded. So you can make a tentative conclusion that the line pays represent about 65% of the payback. That would mean that the free games represent about 25% of the payback. But that is where you have to catch all 20 tiles. If you only have to catch 5 tiles then the free games are going to represent 100% to you. Add that to the 65% that the line pays represent and you have a 165% play.

That would leave a lot of leeway for you to lower your playable number. At 10 tiles to go the free games would represent 50% payback to you and you would be at 115%. At that low a number you would book more losing plays but would still average a profit in the long run. You may choose a number somewhere between 9 and 6 tiles to go.

Another reason for playing a lower number is to discourage competition from other hustlers. If they see you are a vacuum cleaner they may go somewhere else.

 

Hey Mickey, my name is Richie. I am very new to this forum or any for that matter. However, I have seen and read many, many of your posts along with AxelWolf and am certain that the your information is by far the most relevant to any serious AP and he is a close second. In any case,I have about 2 yrs. experience with the tile games in which u refer to. I can assure you that they are not as simple as they may appear. You cannot just calculate a certain number of unbroken tiles and assign it as a play. There are many factors contributing to determining whether it is worthy of action. Certainly an edge can and does exist under the right circumstances. If only u could jump on with 8 or 9 tiles remaining and have a +EV! That would be pretty sick, however other hustlers would just flock to the game. I greatly admire much of your knowledge and posts, very interesting. Obviously, u rarely talk about anything still on the floors, as why invite the wolves to the kill. Continue the good work. Perhaps we could collaborate on the subject in a more secure method......email, phone perhaps. I will be out there grinding it out!!

 

Hi, Richiepshark. I'm not saying you can play the game with a positive expection with 8 or 9 tiles to go. I'm saying I would only loosen up to that if the stats told me I could. What are the other factors you speak of in determing whether it's positive or not?

 

Richie, I'm pretty much retired from the rest of the country. I'm sitting up here in my isolated little Montana home and observing things in the gambling world from afar, vis a vie, the internet. I moved up here from Nevada 8 years ago. I still play machines for a living but in my market no one is going to get filthy rich. But I do okay. It's a trade off. I get to live in Montana which I much prefer than the rest of the country. I like to write about machine plays in gambling forums on the internet but I'm not looking to go to other parts of the country. I'm quite happy in my Montana home. Good luck on your machine plays.

PS...Axel doesn't give up as much information as I do. But the dude is definitely one of the best machine pros on the planet. And he detests me giving up so much information. I'm in a different set of circumstances than him. I don't need those other markets anymore.

 

I hear ya and know you're from Montana which I don't quite understand how you could find enough casinos to make substantial money without traveling. In any case, that's your prerogative and perhaps you do just fine with limited access. If that's the case, I would REALLY like to know what machines and how u can sustain that. I really don't want to post too muchforum on this forummuch honestly. Can the tile games be profitable? Yes, absolutely. However there is a high level of variance and a bit more than just the number of tiles remaining. In my book of AP games, they are definitely in the lower 20% of options. I will and do play them, but very, very selectively.

 

Richie, you might be surprised to know that technically Montana has more "casinos" than any other state. However they are just little slot parlors. In order to have machines you have to have a liquor license. There are 1700 liquor licenses in the state. There are 18,000 machines in the state that are spread out amongst the 1700 liquor licenses. State law is a $2 max bet and an $800 max jackpot. So how does a guy make it in a market like that? That is a story for another day. LOL!

 

Well, I was not aware of that and it certainly makes more sense knowing that stat! I assume they are not VLT's or would be nearly impossible....? Are most slots older? That could be good and bad. In exchange for a few good tips, I could alert u of a few that I am quite sure you have never heard of. Interested?

 

Only problem could be that they are not available in Montana......then again, maybe they are with no rats to fend off! Lol.

 

The machines here are modern multi-game machines. IGT is just a small player here. The big players are Summit, Spielo, and Grand Vision. I have analyzed all the games and continue to do so as new games come out.

 

Ok! Are u aware of anything very out of the ordinary with any Spielo games?

 

Only a very small minority of the games Spielo has available are in this market. Wild Mermiad is certainly not here. So I'm not familiar with all of their games. I occasionally find a Spielo machine where the progressive meters on a game are setting much higher than they are supposed to creating big advantages like 15% to 20%. They have a history of doing that. It's always fun while it lasts.

 

Do u mean a higher % is going into the meters than intended, or that they simply resetting higher than intended? The game in particular I am referring to is more of a glitch type advantage.

 

Meters resetting at five times what they are supposed to reset to. I occasionally find them.

 

One example was a Spielo keno game called Chambers of Gold. It was a 50 cent bet with a meter that started at $100 and ran at 4%. The frequency to win the meter was 3105. The overall payback of the game was 90.5%. I found six machines in a casino in Billings where that meter was restarting at $500. That's 800 extra bets in the meter.

800/3105 meant an add on of 25.76%. It made the game 116.26%. The machines played at 1500 games per hour. That's a $750 an hour wager with a 16.26% edge. It was worth $122 an hour.

I circulated though the machines to make sure they got ploppie action between my wins. No one else caught on to it. I had the play totally to myself. It lasted a couple of months. The house never caught on. The only reason I lost the play was they installed a new game in the machines and it somehow fixed the glitch.