Roulette Ask Me Anything About Betting the EC's (Even Chances)

David,

The house edge in craps, like roulette, is still there. It's about 1.41 on the pass line and slightly less on the don't pass. Both still have a negative long term expectation.

In roulette, on the ECs you can expect to lose 2.7% (5.26% on double zero wheels) of the amount bet.
If you're playing the martingale, then really all you need to know is that you will lose about 2.7% of the total amount that you bet over the long term.
You can factor in variance (luck) if you want, but I'm telling you what the long term expectation is, so variance is irrelevant since it's a double edge sword. It cancels itself out in the long term.

This means that it does NOT matter how many steps or how successful your "strike rate" is with the Martingale, because the house payoff will always be short of your "strike rate". Try as you might, you will never find "just the right progression" to make it work.

To be successful, you must in some way increase the accuracy of your predictions, like exploiting a biased wheel, or with VB.

Whenever you feel that you have a progression that might work, simply ask yourself, can I multiply the progression x the negative expectation value and produce a positive result? In craps it's simply (total amount bet in your progression) x (-.0141) For roulette it's (total amount bet in your progression) x (-.027) or (-.0526) = Negative number which means it will lose. It's really that simple.

 

David,

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No matter how many times you say it, it will never sink in. The only way to win consistently is to have the edge over the casino, progressions mean nothing if you do not have the edge. And if you have the edge you don't need progressions. The biggest problem with a Martingale is there will come a time sooner rather than later when it fails back to back and you never recover from it. It's going to happen because it always happens it's inevitable.

 

(Negative number) x (Total amount that you bet over time) = (Your long term result.)

By the way, in roulette, the house edge exists on every number in the form of a short payout.
In craps, the house edge exists in the form of a short payout as well. The exception is on the odds.

In baccarat, the banker bet is still the best bet. The house edge for those betting on Banker is 1.06 percent (including the 5% commission), which is a lower house edge than the player bet. The exception is if you're counting one of the "side bets" that are sometimes offered...some of which can actually provide the player with an edge. If you really want to know how to get the edge at bac, than I can tell you a couple of different ways to do so.

 

Believe it or not, my strategy does not care about house edge. It is a different approach. I will be sending my Strategy to MedianJoe for him to put this through the wringer. Then we will all know the truth of the matter.

 

David,

Your strategy DOES care about the house edge. You just don't realize it yet because you're still new to all of this. Everyday someone discovers the Marty and thinks that they've found the holy grail. In reality an up as you lose progression = chasing your losses with more and more money.

 

Okey, we shall see.

 

Some Baccarat players are daring by doing the 4 step martingale 1 3 7 15.


Very aggressive in my opinion .

 

That could possibly work with my strategy. More units gained per step than doubling. Not in the game quite as long. However the draw-back is more units lost if the 4th step fails. 15 units doubling verses 26 using 1 3 7 15. almost double the loss in 4 steps.

 

Sent you an em did you get it. [removed] is that correct?

 

Wait a minute. I am not new at this. I have been developing strategies for over 50 years and have been aware of the Martingale for the same amount of years. I know why strategies fail, you are stating something I have heard hundreds of times. You guys are copy and paste. Is there the remotest possibility that someone could find a way to gain an edge and capitalize on it ? If you answer no, then there is no way to win ever according to you. Is the whole purpose of this forum just to have the naysayers teach everyone else there is no possible way to win? I have made a living as an inventor. I think out of the box. When some one tells me it can't be done, but I want it, the more intense I become to achieve it. Only when I take my dying breath will the fact of the matter be established, but not before then.

 

David,


Why do you doubt the mathematicians and the experts? Sorry, but what I have stated about negative expectation and progressions is a fact. There is no debating it.


Sometimes people believe that they're outside of the box thinkers, when in reality, they're trapped in it.


It's a good idea to learn from the mistakes of others, because none of us will ever live long enough to make all of the mistakes on our own.


Suggestion, read on the history of the game. There you will find the answers. The wizardofodds.com is another great resource.

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

 

You are most likely right. But seeing as how I am not playing my strategy for real money and have nothing to lose, I will continue testing it to see when in meets its so-called predicted demise. To date, I have played 259 sessions with a win goal of 64 units per session. I have won 8,143 units. A session takes approximately 152 spins on average. 152 spins X 259 sessions = 39,368 spins. Now take your math and analyze that. Do these results fall in line with house edge and negative expectations? In other words, are these results typical for using a 7 step Martingale?

 

David,

Are you playing in a free mode?

Free modes aren't the same as the real thing. Often times they're set to above break even payout. This includes the free slot machines games available for cellphones.

 

David,

By they way, I really appreciate your passion for trying to beat the game. Please don't feel like I'm trying to insult you. I'd rather see you get on the right track.

 

Betting every spin on your average wheel this will take from 7 to 8 hours to complete one session. After about the first 90 minutes you will start to lose some of your concentration and start to make mistakes and it will only get worse as the hours go by. I know this from personal experience and from research. The reason the casino gives dealers a break usually every hour is because an hour is the amount of time the average person can go without losing their concentration. And dealers start to make mistakes with the money. Of course you can break this up into smaller segments of time but in a real casino one session is going to be in ordeal anyway you do it. Also as you mentioned zeros are the nemesis of the Marty. And in roulette zeros often travel in packs, in other words you will often see three or four zeros in the last 12 or 13 spins. You will also see long stretches where you don't see any zeros. But having to bet as much as you do the zeros are going to be a constant thorn in your side. As I keep saying what kills the Martindale dream of most people is back-to-back losses and it's going to happen and it will put you so far in the hole that you will probably not even bother to recoup your losses. It's not a matter of it might happen it's a matter of it's going to happen it's just a matter of when. Because you have no idea of when not to bet, and knowing when not to bet is the secret to getting the edge in roulette.

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I am using the best RNG simulators I have found. For Roulette, I use roulette-simulator.info. For Craps and Baccarat I use the RNG's offered by the Wizard of Odds. None of these simulators are biased because there is nothing to be gained by those who offer them. Both the Roulette and Baccarat simulators offer a complete history of your game.

 

I totally understand where you are coming from and have never given it a thought that you were trying to insult me. I know you and a few other on this forum are here only to help those who don't have a clue. Your goal is to inform them of the facts in hope it will keep them from getting hurt somewhere down the line. I really appreciate that. All is good between us Dr. Sir. BTW, the strategy I have can never fail in the long-run. Just kidding, I wanted to ruffle your feathers for just a moment there.

 

I have used nothing but Roulette Xtreme for the last 15 years because you can get the results from the live single 0 Wheels in Germany and download them into the program and use them to test with.. I have years worth stored away. I never use an RNG they're totally unreliable.

 

Actually, I agree with almost everything you said. First of all I would never actually play my strategy on either Roulette or Baccarat. It has to be played on Craps only. No Zeros and no 5% Banker's commission. From what I gather there is a way to play craps online where real dice are thrown from a mechanical arm onto a professional craps table. The time allowed for betting is about 15 seconds. After the dice are thrown no more betting takes place until an outcome is reached. Fairly quick, but sometimes the dice will be rolled 10 times or more before an outcome. At least this can be done at home in the comfort of my armchair. If my strategy holds up for the next year, I will play it for much higher stakes and for shorter periods of time.