Roulette Ask Me Anything About Betting the EC's (Even Chances)

Craps can be a very slow game as you point out. And the problem playing online is you get so little time to bet that it's very easy to make mistakes that can cost you big time. This is one of the reasons I went to winning one unit and quitting online because in roulette you only get 20 seconds. You say it's only 15 seconds in craps. What happens is after a while you lose your concentration no matter how hard you try and keep it focused and you start making mistakes. The casino is counting on this. Add to that you're playing a Martingale and when you get to the fourth or fifth step your stress level goes through the roof and that will also cause you to make mistakes. Add into that your age and you're probably in for a bumpy ride. I prefer playing online I will probably never go to a brick-and-mortar casino again. But I had to change some things before I was comfortable with it.

 

I guess you missed the part where I pointed out playing online, live automated Craps

 

Got it, and sent you a reply this morning (UK time).

 

My whole post was about playing craps online. And the drawbacks of having such a short time to make a bet leads to mistakes that can be very costly because the longer you play the harder it is to concentrate.

 

@ David, I'll simulate your system using single-zero roulette with la Partage, which means you get half your stake back when the zero hits (betting even chances only). The house edge is 1.35%, very similar to craps. I could simulate craps but roulette will be a lot easier to code and generate less data because it won't have to wait for the point.

 

Craps is a great recreational game, my favourite of any casino game as there are so many different and interesting ways you can play.

But the decision time on the EC pass and don't pass in B&M craps is slow. I will only ever play in real casino and never online.

One thing to keep in mind is that the casino math is not necessarily what you the player will experience in your profit/loss curve.

I've posted about this previously, and one of the worlds most famous probabilists made a remark in the standard probability text that is worth repeating:

We shall encounter theoretical conclusions which not only are unexpected but actually come as a shock to intuition and common sense. They will reveal that commonly accepted motions concerning chance fluctuations are without foundation and that the implications of the law of large numbers are widely misconstrued. For example, in various applications it is assumed that observations on an individual coin-tossing game during a long time interval will yield the same statistical characteristics as the observation of the results of a huge number of independent games at one given instant. This is not so.. contrary to popular opinion, it is quite likely that in a long coin-tossing game one of the players remains practically the whole time on the winning side, the other on the losing side.​

Which explains why some people are winners and some are losers, and the house is collecting the average of lots of players.

Median Joe also did a simulation on this and what the math of the ArcSine law did in fact predict was reflected in his results. It showed that individual players random walks largely stayed on one side of the line or the other the majority of the time with very few crossings. Some are cursed and some are blessed.

 

That's really a good read. And I truly get it. So far, testing my strategy and going back and forth with all of the comments and replies on this forum has been great fun. And I am including Spike in all of this. People thinks he's nutty and people think I'm nutty. But he does have thing to say that are valid along with everybody else. And if my strategy is put through the wringer (coded) and it fails, will you all cheer and say, ha ,ha, ha, told you so. Actually if it does fail, that will bring to an end all the lovely chats we have had back and forth and that will be a disappointment also. Developing strategies has been a hobby of mine since I was 20 years old. It is one of the most challenging things I have ever attempted. It doesn't matter one iota if they fail or not, it keeps my mind active and it's lots of fun. That's the reward, if nothing else.

 

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Hi spike, Could you share at least a part of your annotation of real results?
I am interested in doing some of my studies.
Grateful!

 

I don't know what this means

 

I don't speak English and use a translator.
and as I understand you said you had several results noted.
It may have been a translator's error here.

If you have roulette results that you can share I would appreciate it.

If not, sorry for the mistake.

 

The translators screwing up because I don't know what roulette results means. It could mean a lot of things. What is it you're looking for

 

He wants an example of your play, which we all know you won't share because your method is based on a guessing/intuition approach.

 

I have given examples somewhere in this thread.

 

Spike,

What's your favorite casino up there in Wisconsin?

 

I haven't been to Wisconsin since the 80s, I live in Michigan. Without a doubt it's Four Winds Casino at the Michigan-Indiana border. Probably the most Vegas-like casino in Michigan. FireKeepers Casino in Battle Creek would be next on my list.

 

I've been there a few times. I've also been to Firekeepers.

 

Four Winds it's only an hour from Chicago and I used to see Mike Ditka playing craps in there all the time but that was 10 or 12 years ago. It's a much nicer Casino than any of the casinos around Chicago. They are pretty much all dumps.

 

I've talked to Spike at other times. And he's already helped me a lot. I didn't ask for any time to exemplify methods. I do want Roulette Results to study, that's all.

 

It's not necessary. You can pick any game within the game that you want and it will go into phases of working and then back out of phases of working, like not working. The example is in seeing this. So here is a game within the game that I have demonstrated many times. You take 100 spin results. Get them from any trusted source. Place a $90 bet on every bet on Red only. Now graph the results. You now have your demonstration. Here, I'll do it for you.

In this graph you can see upswings of it working, plateaus of evenness, and downswings of it not working in your favor. If you can figure out how to see a phase working in your favor then you will know for sure what is happening and will have in fact trained yourself to see by your own example. This works on any game within the game. You can switch to black when red is losing on a strong phase for instance. You can pick 18 president's birthdays and use them as pet numbers for your own private grouping. They will go in and out of conditional phases all day long.