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Roulette Ask Me Anything About Betting the EC's (Even Chances)

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by SPIKE, Dec 9, 2021.

  1. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    The better bettor bets when it's best.
     
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  2. Median Joe

    Median Joe Active Member

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    Actually, I was talking about value betting, which gives a guaranteed profit in the long run, not necessarily on every bet as matched betting does. For those who don't know what matched betting is, it's a way to exploit bonuses and promotional offers by betting on both sides of an outcome. You need to use Betfair though, which may not be possible in your country. Here's a guide: https://www.savethestudent.org/make-money/what-is-matched-betting.html
     
  3. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    How to know when it is best :) ?
     
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  4. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    I do not know, I played some period on sports bets when all my bets were when I really knew how must finish the game...
    And still had problems...
    Of course, some problems came from the contours side - they simply cut my bet max to say 10€ or even less...
    But were also other problems...
     
  5. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    I think that is the same what are the odds scissors? The last name is maybe more popular among bettors...
     
  6. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    And that's how I get an 80% hit rate, only bet when it's advantageous. People seem to think I sit there and just bet and bet and bet and get 80% which is just ridiculous. It's the exact opposite of what I do.
     
    mr j and Rond1nell1 like this.
  7. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    We even have services dedicated to the cause.
    https://bonusbank.com.au/
     

  8. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Yes exactly, hence my pithy little remark.

    The whole premise is that the Spike "magic method" avoids placing losing bets and only places winning bets when its "best". His claim is that he is able to place bets during "phases" when the randomess is not random at all and he doesn't lose half his bets, only 20% of them.

    For that to be true the game has to have periods where the entropy produced by the wheel is lower.

    Anyone with a brain knows this is nonsense but the Reading Randomness shills have been waving their hands and thumbing their noses for years on this.

    They have a vendetta against anyone who uses logic and reason. They instead argue that the tooth fairy, Easter bunny and Santa are real, hiding in the shadows.

    My simple point is that mankind has achieved many great things far more complex than a roulette wheel.

    They want everyone to believe that math and science doesn't work. Yet in every aspect these tools do work and explain almost everything from the evolution of the cosmos from the moment of the big bang to the present moment to protein folding and quantum mechanics and precision semiconductors at the nano scale dealing with probabilistic electron ballistics.

    How can it be that we can do all that and more with math, yet the 37/38 pockets of roulette wheel outcomes are not explained with math?
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2022
  9. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    OK, @TwoUp, but given the bonuses are capped at some amount, the revenue & profit move also in that region -- that won;y you make you rich, although it can be a side hustle related to a common income might show some value, but beyond that threshold becomes/is peanuts -- innit!?
     
  10. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Strictly objectively;
    how is that nonsense ..


    while developing my system I went through a phase, where I was looking into this --
    I actually saw the phases that I called desert, so-so, & in-favor alike ..
    so contingent on the 'bet selection filter' applied interacting with variance,

    .

    phases were clearly seen
    phase-type of prolonged no-hits mixed with a hit here & there = desert,
    then just enough hits in region to cover fluctuation about zero, coincidentally new high
    & phases were to a various degrees of intensity the balance graph just went high & high

    now, do I know the length of these, obviously not ..
    but so I can not trust the commonly offered online weather prediction either

    .

    but I do know which phase I am in currently'
    & also, by the sheer number outcome get indicated
    when/where such a phase ended
    obviously, based on the district used & bet model,
    this can be anywhere from one spin on EC, & more for others
    so the more numbers the indication more precise & apparent to the spin

    +

    we also know how the previous phases were distributed & their length
    related to the total of the spins, where the statistical pressure or rtm is self-regulatory,
    policing itself to a different intensity of a degree .. but present!

    .

    Again, can I completely trust the weather prediction, fuck no ..
    but then again we are always betting & this always, to a degree, involves chance;
    then again, can betting on this basis facilitate an advantage?

    with a proper behavior-analysis model, although the spins are obviously independent,
    analyze to a degree of certainty based on the above parameters
    the group tendency & if the phase is still in continuation at the present spin!
    +
    the already phased out portions of already manifested random within its limits
    =
    thus giving us something substantial to go on in the staking of the next

    .

    I used, when spotted this variance phenomenon, the alternating coverage betting on Quads & DS,
    so about 7 numbers on average disregarding the attack enwrapping it .. so the 'end of phase; had to be analyzed over more spins than EC itself, where one outcome is an absolute indication of a phase's end.

    I decided to move ahead, despite this, decided not be relying on it in my model, due to the constitution of my method its impractical, involving too much tracking ..

    .. meaning running several bs filters virtually concurrently (tracking hitrate, & phase end + realized phases) & actualizing one of them at a time, switching .. -- avoiding the desert, on the so-so &or in-favor phases, that's the whole point .. applied to continuous betting, being situated in the !! current !! advantage ↑ phase & on advantageous positions .. so, as the saying goes say 'losing less'.

    .. & frankly, on deeper districts, requires a computerized analysis-model, due to running the 4-5 different tracks, covering for each (& all) bs filter(s) .. that are diametrically different go each other.

    .

    Nonetheless, I see this in my game as well, on a different basis;
    since I proceed deeper from an EC bet & restart to it on the nominal profit obtained ..

    I can see this on 3EC bet itself standing out simply due to the frequency of instances that type of bet is placed.. & 'how' its outcomes (-3,-1,+1+3) are fluctuating .. as & in groups;

    suddenly I'll have a series of eg. 2-5-10 wins a 3EC row, or about 10-15 very short games in a row (coupled with DZ, CL, potentially on occasion multiple ds bets .. 2DS, 3DS)

    then the 3EC bet will transition to a lot of +1s, -1s .. with an occasional +3,-3,
    & then having ghat for a while, of a whole session ..
    suddenly I'll have all the start of the games perpetuating at -1,-3 ..
    possibly occasional +1 here & there .. so all the games going into the recovery.

    That would be running 'last outcome'; filter consistently on all EC bets --
    so not changing a filter after having a great run (with an indicated end),
    you can count on having more games going into recovery --
    is there a point in changing 3EC filter to the opposite on any point ..

    especially when you see the whole session, game after game, going in recovery without exception,
    or when having great run for about 20-30 games, or half of the session,
    suddenly seeing the self-regulatory variance effect kicking in ..
    what do you think?

    To me, it doesn't matter, I can go either way, & static or dynamic .. as that's not something I rely on, have other (set of) mechanism(s) in place to win; but it surely its great when the formula 1 car's tyres or wheels .. are set at the angle going through a corner at even higher speed, optimized to that particular track, just wheeling all the way to left or right, without a care; innit?

    .

    Again, the bottom line .. its a stake anyway you turn it, & the point is to be 'out of the desert'
    (as the main source of drawdowns, the cause of death of the most systems, & within that the so-called black swan event itself).

    .

    So, I conceptually & to a degree practically, I can fully relate to what @SPIKE & @gizmotron are saying
    • observing the variance
    • spotting phases
    • having/holding in the mind-capacity multiple pre-arranged sets (EC filters), seeing which one is resonating, or to a degree in sync with current variance phase [or as Spike says it .. variance playing (into) my game[
    • stepping in on that actively, putting skin into the gam;
    either with no-bet|bet, of low-gear betting|high-gear, high-unit betting
    • about 80%, no comment -- how could I anyway

    & @TwoUp, you surely have enough salt in your brain, sufficient capacity & logic (to look beyond the current feud with Spike you have with & all associated with it, for at least a moment) .. & recognize the viability of the above described.

    =analyzing various diametrically different bs-filters, & avoiding/switching from desert to so-so, in-favor;
    having stakes in your favor 2/3 .. & phased out deserts on other counts;
    although still a stake = improved degree of certainty
     
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  11. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Nope, it's always the same. Even when you see 20 Reds in a row it's totally random. It looks like a pattern to our brains but it's really not it's just a coincidence that they lined up that way. Random or pattern or coincidence it doesn't matter it can still be exploited. All I did is made up certain games that I play when random coincidence is playing one of my games. When it's not playing one of my games I don't bet. I don't get what's so hard to understand about this. All you have to do is track roulette outcomes for a relatively short time and you will notice that it does the same things over and over and over. There is only a certain number of ways that 37 or 38 numbers can randomly occur. If there was 100 pockets on the wheel I couldn't do this.
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  12. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    "can betting on this basis facilitate an advantage? with a proper behavior-analysis model, although the spins are obviously independent,
    analyze to a degree of certainty based on the above parameters
    the group tendency & if the phase is still in continuation at the present spin!
    +
    the already phased out portions of already manifested random within its limits
    =
    thus giving us something substantial to go on in the staking of the next bet."

    Yep, very well said. But you're wasting your time the math people will still not get it.
     
  13. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Matched betting is very lucrative when you can milk the sign up bonuses.

    You can make 40k within few months if you put the work in.

    Once the bonus dry up you can still make a living through +EV betting. It gets harder as many bookmakers either close accounts or limit the bet sizing if you keep winning. So that requires more smaller bets to make the same amount, or more effort for less reward.

    The more sophisticated betting involves building your own pricing models and the more sophisticated models consider every player and latest information when predicting odds for a game. There were some softer markets here where it was very lucrative but it didn't take long for these markets to develop sharper pricing.

    It's a game of cat and mouse trying to beat any market but it's not without reward. We have pro gamblers here turning over billions annually so that gives you some idea of what you're up against and the returns that are possible when you use math.
     
    Last edited: Jun 22, 2022
  14. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    So you don't understand what you're saying. Less entropy means the wheel is producing less information.

    You say you identify coincidences that gives you the ability to beat the 1/37 or 1/38 odds. That can only happen when the wheel cannot produce all outcomes equally likely. If that happens it means therefore the entropy is lower because less information is being produced.

    This is my point you don't even know what you are arguing against.
     

  15. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    The wheel never produces less information or more information it just provides information. Less than what, more than what, I have no idea what you're talking about. All it does is produce random outcomes and each one is exactly the same as the last one, in other words the present one is not connected in any way to the last one the next one will not be connected in any way. You seem to be the one confused.
     
  16. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Whatever you want to term a "phase" if you are saying there are periods where you can beat the true odds of random what you are actually saying is that during those phases the wheel is somehow bound of constrained in its outputs and is not producing all outputs with equal probability. It is therefore producing information at a lower rate. We say it is "lower entropy" as there is less information being produced.

    That's what a correlation or a coincidence is actually saying. It's saying something about the output can be predicted, or guessed because you're not dealing with 1/37 or 1/38 but something more advantageous. More advantageous means less information produced per spin and therfore less entropy.

    If the entropy is not lower then you can't beat the wheel because it's producing an unguessable stream of information at the full rate.
     
  17. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Well if it's the same then you can't guess better than true random then.

    Have it your way.
     
  18. TwoUp

    TwoUp Well-Known Member

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    Yeah it doesn't.

    In 38 spins the wheel only has 38^38 possible sequences.

    That's "just" 1,075,911,800,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 sequences.

    Which sequences have you seen repeat "doing the same thing over and over"?
     
  19. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    I'm not going to explain the process to you again because you're being obviously obtuse.
     
  20. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Study the outcomes for a while, not even a long while and you'll see. But you won't do that because the last thing a math person wants is to be wrong about anything. Their egos are so huge that it just does not allow for it. People like Isaac Newton the great mathematician had an ego so gigantic most people could not stand to be around him. But that was true for all his math friends at the time too, they knew they could do something almost nobody else can do. And it's still true today. My daughter as I've mentioned many times is a math professor and head of the math department at her college. She is insufferably stuffy about her math abilities because she knows she's in a very elite club. The math-head club.
     

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