Roulette Martingale alternative (Carsch)

I don't know? Nobody has tried to combine RR with a Marti. I know what I'm doing. I mean I'm good at RR. I'm adding the hedged bet to the Marti just to break one of Trubo's laws of baloney. But it helps protect even a little more. I'll use my test numbers and try to win as many as 35 paying wins per session. If I get 35 wins then the session breaks even if any loss happens. So it will take a lot of sessions to impress anyone. Who cares anyway. It's just yapping at a gambling forum. Still. If I can reach several won sessions at $1050 then that will be protection for lost sessions. I don't know what is going to happen. Should be interesting because I would not want to make a sim for this. So it will be a slow process.

 

You just may pull something off here. I am anxious to see. A certain line of thinking, even if at first sounds nuts, may inspire another approach. Put enough ideas together and extract the good parts is how success is born. I think that's what we are all after, a well thought strategy built by everyones input.

 

What if monkeys fly out my ass?

It does not matter. What are you going to do?

I'd put another million in your stash. It's a suckers game.

Will more money make you any happier?

 

I'll give it a fair try.

 

I'll take the monkey bet over the Martingale bet, there's more chances of monkeys flying out of your ass than making a Martingale work. Mister Millionaire Martingale thinks that if you can just stay ahead in the end it's a winner. He has no idea the absolute shear tediousness of fighting your way back in a real Casino after a loss to win one lousy unit. Especially when the inevitable double losses happen. All your thinking as you're trying to fight your way back is please God, don't let me get another loss.

 

OK, that was the brainless test with nothing but doubling down off the first bet. I'll come back later when I'm not tired. I'm just not in the mood to make bets. I've been at it all day with a lawyer and doctors. Tons of paperwork since 5:30am. I thought a no brainer would be easy. This is the most amazing almost perfect sequence of death. 30 hit three times in a row. It happens. You can see where I just punch the double down button. LOL, Go at it Turbo. It's clickbait.

 

That's better. I forced myself to concentrate. Just one my first RR-Marti session. No more today.

 

The probability of a 5 step Marty making 31 units to equal what it loses is 32.4% on a roulette EC with 37 pockets.

That is a 67.6% chance of failing to make 31 units to cover a bust, even though the probability of a 5 step martingale failure is just 3.57%

So beating the break even point is not supported according to the probability.

However as discussed if one can tame the dispersion by reducing streaks (that includes both win and loss streaks) on the W/L registry then the dynamics change and the progression can smooth out the results and increase profit.

It is a big if though.

 

Only if you reduce the dispersion, W/L streaks must be tamed otherwise probability says you can't make enough to cover the loss as making 31 units on a 5 step martingale is only has a 32% success rate.

Making 10 units however has a 70% probability of success.

 

The following analysis was based on a single zero roulette wheel on the even chances.

Suppose you were able to reduce the the length of your losing runs - how would your edge vary depending on the longest losing run?
To put it another way, what should the length of the longest losing run be to ensure that would you make a profit flat betting?

Here are the results.

Max losing run = 1, PA = 15.451 *PA = Player Advantage*
Max losing run = 2, PA = 5.357
Max losing run = 3, PA = 1.194
Max losing run = 4, PA = - 0.764
Max losing run = 5, PA = - 1.723
Max losing run = 6, PA = - 2.229
Max losing run = 7, PA = - 2.493
Max losing run = 8, PA = - 2.627
Max losing run = 9, PA = - 2.704
Max losing run = 10, PA = - 2.736

For losing runs of 10 (or more) The expected PA (Player Advantage) of approximately 2.7% applies.
As you shorten the longest losing run, the PA increases, but it's not until you get to a max losing run of 3 that it becomes positive.

So if you can find a way to get your maximum losing run down to 3, you will have an advantage of about 1.2%, alternatively, you could try to recover all losing runs above 3 by some sort of progression.

 

Not saying there is no value in such calculations, but they are often misunderstood. We've probably all seen systems which aim to make just 1 unit per day, as though this is somehow safer than making 10u, or 32u. Surely it's obvious why there is no advantage in having small win targets? Using a 5 step marty your chance of making 1u is over 95%, but only if you plan never to play again can you say you've "beaten the casino". It makes no difference whether you aim to make 32u in a session, or spread this over 32 days making 1u per day. What matters is the number of actual bets you make.

 

just to correct something...

For losing runs of 10 (or more) The expected PA (Player Advantage) of approximately -2.7% applies.

I forgot the minus. It would be great to get paid out on losses as well!

What I kind of take from above and others have mentioned before is that I reckon people are too gung ho with the staking in progressions.

So if you want to play a Marty, fine, it's your money and your choice but why not do something like 1,1,2,4,8,16, it gives you the same steps as 1,2,4,8,16,32, and costs you a lot loss should it all go wrong. It's why I like doing 0,0,0,1 or 0,0,0,0,0,1 in a Labby string.

 

The problem with the 1, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16 progression is, you win nothing if you hit past the first step. You are taking the same risk to win nothing or to lose 32 units. Doesn't make sense.

 

I can't tell you how many times I have heard progressions get killed by losing streaks. Do da, do da, oh do da day. The way I play, I have faced many 6 step busts, so it holds true a losing streak will kill a progression. My busts are right in sink with the probabilities. However, I am usually ahead by quite a few units and the next session win recoups the loss and then some. You get no argument from me about a progression killer.

 

You don't need to make a profit on every series,

The premise is that you can afford to have 3 losses and still come out winning as long as you don't bust out the progression (you can choose any progression. The Marty is just an example because it's topical at the moment.) You are giving yourself a bit of extra security and not escalating something too quickly when you don't really need to and still come out ahead.

Granted, it could eat up a bit more time but personally, I wouldn't be worried about the extra couple of units I could have gained using a bog standard Marty if it tanked and I had just lost roughly 30,60 or 120 units.

Would I try this with a Marty? No! The day will likely come for whatever reason that you will bust out. The person who ran the analysis above was just suggesting that since you can have a player advantage as long as you can limit the losses to 3 on the even chances that you could tack a progression on the end of it. Anybody would be on shaky ground just relying on the progression aspect of it and not having a decent bet selection.

 

You are wasting your time , the matybationist plays at the kitchen table in his sticky tablecloth world. He has no real world context for his martyselfellatio habits, no real world constraints to cause him to miss a bet , he just puts the sim on hold for 2 hours while he gets his shit together. He hasn’t faced a table malfunction on his 5 th step of his 6 stage martybation and they close the table because some fool spilt a drink on the layout or vomited on the layout( have seen this on more than one occasion) . No real world experience for the martybatonist . Just wishful thinking jerking off into the interverse.

 

I hear you loud and clear and appreciate the input. I still see the problem with that progresson as only winning a unit on the first step. If you lose on the 1st step and move up the progression and hit, you only break even.The fact is the progression is doomed to fail sooner or later anyway. Let's suppose that fate has it that after 101 times of advancing up and down the progression it fails. That is 100 times you only broke even. However, with the 1 2 4 8 16 32 progression you win 100 units before bust. The 1 1 2 4 8 16 progression looses 32 units at bust. The 1 2 4 8 16 32 progression looses 63 units at bust. But the latter progression is 100 units ahead. So therefore, 100 minus 64 = 37, which amounts to losing 5 units less than the other progression. I have been experimenting with a combination of flat betting and a limited use Marty progression which is showing some good results. The problem with testing new ideas is it takes so much frigin' time.

 

Try this one on for size. 2, 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32. All you have is time to waste anyway.

 

Look who's talking!

 

What do you mean? I just squished TurboGenius. That took effort letting him blab on and on with how Roulette works. I'm letting you blab now. Why don't you get a hobby like a fishing boat or something like that. You know what a fishing boat is don't you? It's a hole in the ocean where you throw money.