Roulette R-Sim - Giz2 - Reading Randomness Validation

P.S. EC have been dumped for something better inside . EC were just a side show like baccarat .

 

If you are Mr j or Turbo.
But if you have any idea how the stream balances, you stand a chance and not have to place chips all over the table in 30 sec's

 

My like for admitting a faux pas .

 

Naughty, I am not an on line player. Thanks any way .

 

getting closer to making it work like I want:

Code:

01 |X.|..|.... |..|..|
02 |..|..|.... |..|X.|
03 |..|X.|X...|...|X.|
04 |..|..|.... |..|..|
05 |..|..|.... |..|..|
06 |..|..|.... |..|..|
07 |..|..|.... |..|..|
08 |..|..|.... |..|X.|
09 |..|..|.... |..|..|
10 |..|..|.... |..|X.|
11 |..|..|.... |..|X.|
12 |X.|..|XX...|..|..|
13 |X.|X.|.... |..|..|
14 |..|..|.... |..|X.|
15 |..|..|.... |..|..|
16 |..|..|.... |..|..|
17 |..|..|.... |..|..|
18 |..|..|.... |..|..|
19 |..|..|.... |..|..|
20 |..|..|.... |..|..|
21 |..|..|.... |..|X.|
22 |X.|..|XX...|..|XX|
23 |..|X.|XXXX.|..|..|
24 |..|..|.... |..|X.|
25 |..|..|.... |..|..|
26 |..|..|.... |..|..|
27 |..|..|.... |..|..|
28 |..|..|.... |..|..|
29 |..|..|.... |..|..|
30 |..|..|.... |..|..|
31 |..|..|.... |..|..|
32 |..|..|.... |..|..|
33 |..|XX|.... |..|..|
34 |XX|..|XX...|XX|XX|
35 |..|..|.... |..|..|
36 |..|..|.... |..|X.|
37 |..|..|.... |..|X.|

 

I am accepting winnings and losses with the same grace .

 

The problem here is that a paradox is created. Which is fine, there are a countless number of paradoxes.
You can solve some of them by twisting and turning a bit.

So the paradox here would be :
Roulette is random. Random is unpredictable. If something is predictable then it's not Random.

This is what's argued on the forums by the "math people" and they are right.
I can argue my side and show that I'm right.
So the paradox might be to determine once and for all who is right.
If "random" can be predictable - then that causes quite a big problem in the big picture.
Roulette being beaten would be the least of the problems created by someone making random
predictable.
Security, Cryptography, Crypto-currency, Economics, Mathematics, Medicine, Religion -
ALL have a reliance on "random" being unpredictable.
So someone on an internet forum saying "Go make millions" for example, doesn't understand
a single thing about the consequences of random being predictable.
It wouldn't be about the casinos losing money or the game changing - the effects would
be devastating to countless industries that rely on it.

Yes, sounds over-dramatic. In reality I'm not being dramatic enough.
It might be possible to argue that roulette outcomes aren't real "random" - that's fine too -
no harm done in being able to predict the outcomes as it wouldn't effect "real random".
But that's a rabbit hole for some other time.
Cheers.

 

OK, I think I have this working:

Code:

01 |X...|XXXXX|........|...|..|....|
02 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
03 |....|.....|........|...|..|X...|
04 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
05 |....|XX...|X.......|...|..|....|
06 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
07 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
08 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
09 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
10 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
11 |XXX.|.....|........|...|..|....|
12 |....|XXX..|........|XXX|X.|....|
13 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
14 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
15 |....|.....|XX......|...|..|....|
16 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
17 |XXXX|.....|........|...|..|....|
18 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
19 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
20 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
21 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
22 |....|.....|........|XX.|..|....|
23 |....|.....|........|...|XX|....|
24 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
25 |....|.....|X.......|...|..|XXXX|
26 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
27 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
28 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
29 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
30 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
31 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
32 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
33 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
34 |....|XXX..|........|...|X.|....|
35 |....|.....|XXXXXXXX|XX.|..|....|
36 |....|.....|........|...|..|....|
37 |....|.....|........|...|XX|XX..|

 

I have problems with the word predictable and I like to say it's susceptible to educated guessing. They are similar but not the same.

 

The math tells us repeaters are a dependable characteristic of random.

The probability of repeats and LOTT is quite simple to calculate.

Every number has 1/37 probability and that's the true odds of the event, so the long term average expectation is 37/1 = 37 spins (by flipping the probablity) for a number to appear.

The probability of the first number appearing is 37/37= 1 as we don't care what number it is, the probability is always 100%. This now leaves 36 numbers that haven't hit.

So that means the probability of the next unique number is 36/37, and this takes on average 37/36 spins (1.02 spins) which is ever so slightly more than 1 spin as the first number can repeat occasionally. This now leaves 35 unique numbers that haven't hit.

And likewise the probability of the third unique number is 35/37 as there are 35 unique numbers remaining, and this takes on average 37/35 spins (1.05 spins), again we just flip the probability fraction to get the spin count.

We expect each unique number to appear with the following probabilities 37/37=1, 36/37, 34/37, 33/37, 32/37 ... 2/37, 1/37.

In terms of number of spins we just flip those probabilities to get the required spin counts for each unique number to appear and add them all up.

(37/37 + 37/36 + 37/35 + 37/34 + ... 37/2 + 37/1).

You will notice every number has 37 on the top so we can take that common term out and get:
37 × (1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + ... 1/2 + 1/1)

Which equals 155 spins on average to see every number.

And we can also just calculate to say 9 unique numbers:

37 × (1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + 1/33 + 1/32 + 1/31 + 1/30 + 1/29) = 10.15 spins on average.

That implies that a repeater is expected by spin 10, but one would only betting for 9 spins if you they were for instance niavely betting each number as it appears.

And for 23 unique numbers it's the 37 spin cycle:
37 × (1/37 + 1/36 + 1/35 + 1/34 + 1/33 + 1/32 + 1/31 + 1/30 + 1/29 + 1/28 ... 1/15 + 1/14) = 37.79

Which is why the LOTT says in 37 spins we get 23 unique numbers, with 14 repeaters and 14 unhit numbers in a 37 spin cycle on average and 14 unhit.

The statistical evidence confirms exactly what the math predicts.

We can also expect on average that approximately 14 of the 23/24 numbers in the first cycle are included the second cycle with 9 numbers from the first batch of unhit numbers now being hit.

Basically every 37 spins trades out 9 numbers for 9 new numbers, on average. After 155 spins, we cover all 37 numbers on average.

Again these are averages, but they are fairly stable norms. Yes there will be slight variance and even outliers, given a billion spins we can expect to see rare events such as a number to not hit in over 400 spins, and we may see up to 32 unique numbers in 37 spins.

Also note that any rolling 37 spin cycle is a really made up of 37 overlapping cycles. Every spin is at the same time the end of one previous cycle and the start of a new cycle, and also part of 35 other cycles that have not yet completed.

 

I prefer to say the statistical characteristics are predictable than to say random is predictable. The characteristics such as number of repeaters is predictable, longest expected run is a characteristic that is predictable with an almost static variance/error of ±2 whether considering 50 outcomes or 50 trillion (which is amazing accuracy).

Your "guessing" however I will let others comment on.

 

Nobody is comfortable saying random is predictable because that would mean it's not random cuz true random is not predictable. It's educated guessable. You really have to keep this distinction in your mind at all times because it'll get you in trouble if you don't. You will start to expect random to do things that it cannot do.

 

Nobody cares troll, go away. I don't have to prove anything, if Turbourbo wants to that's his business.

 

Some of you know that I started out with the hottest three numbers in 300 spins. Randomness varies a lot. The hottest number typically hits from 12 to 22 times in the 300 spins with the long shot of 22 to 26 times on rare occasions. You have no idea what you are going to get. The hottest number can sleep for as much as 70 spins and still be the hottest of all the numbers in the 300 spin sequence. Here is another thing too. The hottest number can last for 450 spins. You can encounter it during the last 150 spins of a 450 spin cycle. So a new hottest number can become the most active in the last half of a 300 spin cycle.

It only takes 9 wins to break even once you start flat betting one single number for 300 more spins. This is very common too. You will see the hottest number swarm very close together in patches of less than average sequences. And then also have colder patches that bring about the average back to 17. I believe Ken developed a very nice way to hunt for these hotter patches. If I take the average between 12 and 22 I get 17. If I can get 17 hits in 300 spins I double my money. If I'm flat betting one number for 300 spins at $50 then one interval at 60 losses takes my $3,000. So you need room to maneuver with 70 possible. A few virtual bets thrown in might or might not protect. Now 17 is significant too. If your hottest number hits 17 times then the average interval in 300 spins is about 17 spins between hits. Furthermore $50 wins $1750. It takes 35 spins at $50 to make up $1750. Half of 35 is close to 17. So if you pick a number that only hits 12 times then you tend to only make about $5,000 in 300 spins. but if you can hunt down a hot number that averages 17 hits then you make $14,000. Now if its a super hot streak that hits 22 times then you make more than $22,000 in 300 bets made flat betting $50.

Turbo is not just going after the one hot number. He uses one, two, or even three numbers to get a hit. It still all averages out. Those of us that play 12 to 24 numbers know that all bets equate to 35 to 1 except for the basket bet of 1,2,3,0, and 00 sometimes. But that bet is close to 35 to 1 when you break it down also. Perhaps you need to argue this point. Three times 12 is 36. 1 times 35 + you keep the winning chip = 36. It all rounds down to 36. What matters is the number of bets placed from the number of spins actually bet. You put all that together and you start to see the observations I have known about for more than 30 years. Hot number chasing can be sort of done using RR if you look for sequences of 300 that have a hottest number hitting at 17 or above in 300 spins. Now you sim builders can validate these averages. You could also confirm this with math. But you must remember this much. Ken has a skill to hunt the hot patches where the hottest number intervals are a way smaller number than 17 between hits in patches of 50 to 100 spins. That's the bag of gold RR thing about the nature of hottest numbers.

Surprised at me for knowing this much about hottest numbers and have pretty much kept it a secret for the past 16 years? It's what I base all other sets and grouping on in RR.

 

It's better to learn about the nature of hottest numbers with this sim that I built and made available here for a free download. Each number is the interval between hits. This example is 285 spins.

Code:

01) 004, 038, 018, 038, 041, 029, 011, 035, 011, 063, 
02) 104, 016, 119, 015, 011, 011, 011, 
03) 011, 006, 054, 004, 042, 005, 009, 003, 108, 021, 005, 032, 009, 
04) 024, 038, 021, 080, 039, 010, 001, 010, 001, 034, 012, 026, 021, 
05) 041, 013, 049, 034, 039, 064, 
06) 021, 005, 156, 010, 067, 010, 032, 
07) 018, 130, 021, 004, 047, 006, 064, 014, 015, 
08) 107, 023, 070, 005, 004, 097, 002, 
09) 146, 003, 080, 
10) 008, 040, 019, 009, 005, 062, 048, 010, 044, 021, 
11) 037, 052, 034, 066, 006, 069, 
12) 058, 008, 011, 087, 084, 026, 025, 019, 
13) 043, 025, 027, 041, 048, 065, 058, 
14) 006, 007, 108, 026, 024, 003, 012, 066, 029, 
15) 030, 016, 028, 032, 002, 003, 014, 020, 022, 032, 029, 045, 004, 037, 
16) 005, 135, 041, 055, 035, 
17) 020, 013, 016, 012, 026, 014, 012, 047, 046, 
18) 002, 001, 025, 060, 002, 009, 010, 081, 013, 005, 022, 025, 005, 024, 
19) 027, 028, 004, 032, 064, 030, 002, 001, 028, 019, 048, 003, 
20) 001, 011, 035, 031, 016, 022, 013, 030, 024, 032, 018, 005, 006, 003, 035, 
21) 038, 012, 083, 077, 046, 023, 
22) 016, 018, 076, 032, 119, 014, 003, 
23) 010, 029, 046, 053, 006, 008, 067, 015, 068, 001, 
24) 036, 016, 041, 060, 012, 028, 
25) 045, 011, 044, 077, 090, 005, 038, 
26) 009, 013, 080, 139, 021, 023, 007, 002, 
27) 057, 058, 047, 032, 017, 040, 
28) 069, 015, 048, 026, 017, 140, 
29) 007, 012, 032, 013, 028, 034, 046, 060, 014, 007, 
30) 023, 073, 016, 044, 005, 005, 004, 047, 072, 004, 
31) 031, 004, 005, 004, 053, 008, 013, 023, 080, 001, 035, 048, 
32) 015, 017, 038, 009, 007, 033, 005, 033, 159, 
33) 014, 058, 055, 001, 090, 
34) 053, 082, 016, 003, 026, 027, 020, 010, 006, 054, 001, 014, 
35) 065, 008, 007, 070, 028, 019, 007, 027, 019, 063, 
36) 025, 004, 034, 019, 032, 166, 011, 020, 
37) 196, 002, 097, 

 

The hottest number was #20 with 15 hits in 285 spins. There were two cold spots at 35 spins between a hit for each. You can also see super hot streaks. I built this so that you can learn about common intervals.

#4 hit 13 times and had a cold spot of 80 spins.

 

Would that be Saint Stevie?

 

Two up you're the kiddy, great stuff. On the FOBT's more often than not they had all hit within 120 spins. Yes some took more.

Yeah that 1st repeat average, top man.

Perfect.

Sounds close to Dr Sir's 10'330 live spins that gives repeat average as
For 3 extra spins 16 repeats - 24 non-hit.
30 repeats at 60th spin?

 

Giz
You need to make a new topic, like Turbo that you control, by having own section. R-sim - Giz2. This could then get more cluttered up,
But your controlled, you will be able to send stuff to the grave yard.