Baccarat Follow the Last anyone?

When testing with existing recorded shoes they need to be linear.
eg. the shoe ( appr 80 hands each) order is mixed 5 3 7 2 1 9 8 4 6
must be placed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
then this is what will occur in real play as long as you do not leave the table and miss a shoe.
The point of entry can be anywhere you have the surplus of players that meet your 70% rule. and you can then start with your banker play.
If you test with the shoe order mixed then you have to start at the early entry because the next shoe the you play does not follow from the previous.
I hope I am not to confusing and babbling on. I do not want to bore you!

 

Rz; speaking of technology, there is a belief that for the RNG games in general, the software engineers program the computer to recognise your bets/or trend. Then it will "deliberately" change the result in order for the punter to lose. Is there any such thing as that?
The dynamics of that is downright crazy, if in the case there are multiple players betting on different sides.

 

I am sure anything is possible these days; does it happen? To what extent?

 

That is interesting. You have found that your AI does not do well if the shoes are not in linear order?

 

The legit online casinos do not employ a system to track you and take your bets. Most player give their money away in time. I used to have a lot vetting issues prior to 2006 with the European casinos. Today with proper regulation the software is solid. I normally would test their software by placing $5 bets and when I would reach a place that I knew I should win I would move it to $1000. It won like it was supposed to to. Validating their software. I validated RNG programs with no difficulty.

 

I use a math called packeting that breaks down patterns to precise and identifiable groups then gives them a measurable life span value. The AI software then looks at the random feed and detects which of those patterns are present and determines the approximate life span they should have and capitalizes on them.
What started all of this was in the testing stage. A friend was a lawyer for Caesars in Lake Tahoe, who was also a dedicated Baccarat player. Customers would present him with with interesting recorded shoes from all over the world for over 20 years. We scanned them all into the computer (there were over 38,000 shoes). I then ran the AI software and it determined the patterns life span events. I also produce computer generated events (over 100 billion) to test against the real life events. The computer generated events matched statistically but had pattern life spans nearly double. Which was confusing. I then proceed to employ a few individuals to play at a live table 24/7 collecting a continuous flow of events for 60 days (producing a linear set).
I numbered each recorded shoe and fed them into the software. Even though the events were of a very smaller number the pattern life span was consistent with the computer generated model. I then proceed to fragment the 100 billion computer genearted hands into random (72 to 82) groups and then randomly mixed those groups and the pattern life spans now matched the real play (38,000 shoes). The original shoes were never in order, they were collected over time from multiple tables. The computer generated and the 60 day collection was truly linear. Everything started from there.

If I am not boring you now, you do have patience!!!

 

There's a lot to unpack here. I've often thought or actually wondered about the linear concept you mentioned. Playing in the short term we never know what came before in order to try to determine some bias. But I think you're speaking of certain patterns as opposed to what Fathead is looking at regarding what essentially is regression from a substantial bias. There was a book " 1 million random numbers and their normal deviates" but it never did determine how to predict those patterns it discovered....as far as I kmow

Having played amd/or watched Soxfans Surewin method and seeing several linear shoes in a row go off the charts with Player plus watching JAE's Oscar Grind get burned occasionally it's hard for me to understand how even Fatheads 70% waiting between 14 and 32 hands won't fail. Not to mention such a long wait many times.

So unless I'm not understanding something it seems to be fairly impractical to determine future outcomes without having to wait for an abundance of previous outcomes.

But then maybe you're talking about existing patterns and longevity or lack thereof? If you care to be more specific that would be helpful.

Sidebar: I do think there is a way to actually increase the amount of patterns we normally see through shoe manipulation. But once again predicting those increased patterns is another story.

I've played thousands of shoes. Atlantic City, Las Vegas, Connecticut and other places. Tunica is a favorite of mine but I never played Biloxi.

Cheers

 

Can you still run tests with ur data? Fathead has tested this and I would be interested in your results.

Bet banker only (aka soxfan) once win or lose after a single player, bet the whole shoe, should end up between .35 to .85 units per shoe after commission.

 

Ha. I found this post quite interesting, actually. Perhaps there is more order to things than we can normally perceive. Even in seemingly unrelated baccarat shoes.

The shoes at the table for the 60 day collection, were these hand shuffled at the table, machine shuffled at the table, brought to the table pre-shuffled? I know different casinos have different procedures. Just curious.

 

Before soxfan accuses you of been Alerax I'll ask you and when you deny it I won't believe you and still keep accusing you lol (long running forum joke)


I am one of the ones who still believe casinos manipulate their "pre shuffled" shoes in wharever order is best for them..shuffler computers and RFID cards technologies are way to advanced...etc.

And yeah u can cut anywhere u want but it easy for shoes to.be reset with ties etc and random reset points to produce whatever flavor shoes the casino wants etc...

They say they don't hand shuffle anymore because the added labor factor lol but here there are literally 50 tables with dealers just sitting for hours at a time doing nothing but waiting for players ...

And oh by the way if you want a special hand shuffled shoe you can in the VIP section but you have to play a minimum of $10,000 a hand lol, regular vip free hand commission shoes are $100 a hand minimum

 

Stats only become accurate in very large numbers 100M, the error rate keeps shrinking but an error of .001 is still a 100,000.
So you look at not how a system wins but looses. What is the statistical rate of loss and how much will it cost. All fixed system will lose more money when the loss show up. You cannot use money to change the stats. You hope to avoid it (which does not work). Fixed player twist the way the money is exposed to avoid the loss scenario, but it does not change it.
Lets take two events. There are only 4 pattern that can be produced.
P P B B
P B P B They each occur 25% of the time The stats slightly favor the bank but you will never see that.

Every pattern from there is still one of those 4 patterns. Whatever is causing a particular pattern to show up more than it should will continue until it changes (hence its life span). A player progressive bets again 8 Bankers in a row. When it shows up he looses more money then he has won, but now thinks he is safe from another 8 Bankers in a row showing up so he either increases his value of the progression or plays longer. In that short time period another 1 or 2 (8-Bankers) will show up within 200 hands. That is the pattern life span. So yes if you wait for an anomaly to show up and then play against it you risk a loss. You have no control on your decision. You are fixed and must play the way your system directs you.
Patterns are there immediately, it is just how fast can you identify them and how long will they last.

 

I do not understand the humor (have not been here long enough, but I will assume it is funny)
What you allege to can easily be done if the house determines how you play. ex. you bet player 7 times in a row they can reset the deck to produce 8 Banks more than it should. The question is will they risk a multi-billion dollar license for a little bit of money. Also what happens if you change your pattern after the next shoe to bet 7 Banks. then go to something else on the following shoe. It is easier to give you alcohol or get you angry to where you will show the shoe who is really in control, As you give all your money away. The casino is about speed, more hands per hour.
I have been on both sides of the casino do to a lot of friends that work for them. Alcohol works best and it is cheap. They now human nature and exploit that to the limits.

 

Yes Jacob... I can run that through 2.5M live hands with no problem and also 1M online hands if you want
Let me make sure I understand you correctly.
P
P
B
B
P
B
_ Bet Banker here on every occurrence of this pattern for the rest of the shoe ( this position would indicate the single player)

 

Thanks

No, flat be B one time after every single player

B
B
P
Bet for B

P
Bet for B

B
B
B
B
P
P (lost, wait for next single P) to bet again

 

This shoe finished plus 1

With 4 straight losses followed by 6 straight wins and then the final loss (double player is loss, single player wins)

 

JacobBlaze, where did you get the +0.35 to +0.85 figure? From your hand testing?

 

My insignificant limited forward live testing it's a hard grind... About 100 shoes, and you have to have right casino environment free hands and commission, here minimum I found Is about $60 us minimum, but most are $100.minimum free hands/commission

I have to play on off hours as the players here can take for ever opening and squeezing every hand and shoes can take 1.5 to 2 hours lol, if I play alone I can grind through a shoe in 30 minutes.... And.its hard sitting through long 5+ runs waiting for the runs.to stop so you can.bet...and the players squeezing through every hand of long runs...

 

Plus 1 minus commission

So .7 units

 

Okay, thanks. I knew that was not what I got in my testing.

Yes, those tables where people handle the cards can be slow. Players peeking at the cards and so forth.

 

I understand now. You want a single flat bet right after the first occurrence of a new player one time. I will run that for you both the live and online data.

One problem I see is you spend a lot of time waiting or you have to play a minimum bet to get a hand dealt if you are alone at the table.
Also some tables only allow you to skip 3 hands without a bet. Online you have to play every hand. As long as the minimum to working bet is large enough to offset it, it would be a non factor other than tiring.

The math itself says you do not have an advantage with that style betting but I will run in through the software.
Also do you exit after a certain amount of wins.
What determines your stopping point other than bankroll or exhaustion?

I just looked at my online sheets from today in 6 sections of 100 hand intervals you would be up +12 then the last two sheets you would be down -6 and -13. One right after the next.