Baccarat Baccarat Truths

Baccarat is a 50-50 game. Some people misrepresent this statement out of ignorance in that they appear to think that it means every wager on either P or B has an equal chance of success. Of course that's not so. It's academic but maybe it is worth stating once more that 50-50 refers to each accumulated run length being half in number. 18 singletons then 9 2's, etc. The drawing rules favoring Bank would suggest that there are slightly more 2's on P then B. Maybe 5:4; maybe 51:49? Who knows? This stuff has been tested ad nauseum versus real and simulated shoes.

Further, the idea that casinos are manipulating shoes has been a long and controversial subject put forth with no evidence or documentation. Some, like ECD, used this argument to promote selection scams and it got a lot of traction. But it is ridiculous.

The other controversy that RNG shoes from sources like Evolution or Wizard, etc. are somehow skewered to make you lose and only certain casinos have legitimate data is another fallacy promoted by scammers and excuse makers. Both live and simulated shoes have been studied extensively but alas, truth and facts have taken a back seat to anecdotes and opinions oon this forum as well. You might like the following:

https://imspirit.wordpress.com/2010/10/02/my-baccarat-shoe-factory/

Some time ago a programmer (Dave Lin), ran some tests on various strict bet selections that were promoted by ECD. He posted the results on imsoirit. He used a few thousand shoes I collected from around the US and some RNG shoes. Below is some results for LIAR. As you see it shows it represents the EV of run lengths.

Here's what he wrote and one table showing results. A 50-50 game.

"From what I see, there are no significant differences in the W/LIARS between the methods.

The only small differences seem to arise when the bet frequency is significantly different, so any W/LIAR differences can probably be attributed to bet frequency dependency and not due to a genuine improvement in accuracy."

and

 

E.Clifton Davis strategies are no better than any others. Who would have guessed?

Three 'Dai Bac' continuous RNG games from yesterday. No commission, but pushes on a three card 7 Banker win.

Game #1
PPPBPPPPPBBBBPBPPBPPPPPBBBPPPBBBBBPBPPPPPPPPPPPPPBPBPBPPPBBBPPBPPBBBPBPPPPPPBPBBBPBBBBBBBPBPPBBBPPBBPPBPPBPBPBBPPBPBPPPPPBPBBBPPBBBPBBPPBBBPBBBBPPPP

Game #2
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Game #3
BBBPPPPPPBBBPBBPBPBPBPBBPPPBBPBBBBPPBPBBPBBBPBPBPBBBBPPBPBBPPPBPBBP

 

Jimske,

I like the amount of traction your post has gained. Nobody is interested in the actual facts of the game. They want a fantasy sure play.

Discussing this years back online. I explained this to someone who built his entire game on it. He would track what he started to call his signature plays. Puting ones in that were hitting dropping others and checking the average sleep time as well as if they were in a chop pattern..

Yep any play one can come up with will hit the 50% mark eventually. He pissed off some people because he started to claim his plays were hitting above 50%. Sound familiar?

What I thought was funny he started to argue the merit of his play with the same person that explained it to me at GG.

When it was explained to me, I immediately checked the shoes I had collected. Ones that I played. And while I do understand there could have been a variance. There wasn't one. The only difference in the balance was when the runs got in the teens the biggest was more than a couple than the one behind it. ALL others were even . I had a hard time with the fact that the actual shoes I played through came to near perfect balance.

Shoe wise P and B would try to come to even. They were not perfect at the end of testing P dominated while the above was balanced.
C and F tried to come to balance on every shoe as well as DBL and ODBL.

Where it can be even harder to look at in follow the 3 or 4. While they will eventually balance out it's not even close on some shoes. You may see them miss like crazy and then dominate in another. They will eventually come close to balance.

I stated in a thread a while back to show me a hand where the outcome could not be changed by the order of the cards. Not one taker. Personally I do not believe on an eight deck shoe there is any banker advantage. I also don't believe removing certain cards have an advantage either way. If it did card counting baccarat would be the number one strategy and it simply is not.

I enjoyed yur post simply because it's nice to get a dose of reality and not fantasy.

 

My 2cents worth of opinion
I’ve stated numerous times previously that one is hard pushed to correctly identify a rng list of results as opposed to a live dealt list of results.
The only exception is when the number of results are listed in the 100s ( rng constant stream) versus the list of 70 hand results. In saying that a sample size of 30 hands IS not able to be correctly determined as Rng or live dealer.

The other aspect is a historical data set of results either rng , live or a mixture of both will never give you that elusive holy grail that so many pine for. It does however give you a go to “already” accumulated data set to test your next attempt of finding a “winner” method when the one you are favouring at the moment fails.
Cheers

 

"Personally I do not believe on an eight deck shoe there is any banker advantage."

What about a 6 Deck shoe?