Baccarat Flat bet vs Progressions

I was thinking about this flat bet versus progression stuff. Does anyone actually Just flat bet? Soxfan insists that he does. But does he? I doubt it. Punkcity does sort of. He doesn't play negative progression but admits that he will play up as he wins. Up as you win is another thread to be considered. It's a streaky game. Wn 2 or 3 IAR and begin escalation using Guetting or Fibonacci or whatever.

But I think most people think they can't win more hands than they lose so the can't flat bet can they?

I'm at 54% strike rste last 1500 wagers. I just flat bet a shoe for kicks.

W L W LLLL WW L W LL WW LL W L WWW L W.

W 12 L 12. LOL. My progression wins 6 units

Cheers

 

So here Some of my winds the other day has an example where this going to think and pay. Of course that's not the norm. But if you look at my win loss registry that I posted you could see maybe UAYW could prevail.

Cheers

LLL W LLLL WWWWWWWWWW L QUIT

WWWWWW L WWWWW L WWWWW LL WWW LL QUIT

 

Despite making this thread to try and show another way of looking at things and that flat bet might not be the optimal way, I must admit that I still like to flat bet some of the time myself. Why? Because it suits me as a conservative player and I don't mind putting in a few hours at the tables to grind it out. Normally, I will start off flat betting and then go from there. It also depends what I see in a shoe if I am playing baccarat. I played a shoe the other day and it had a chop streak, then a little run of one side, back to another chop streak, another little run of one side and then another chop streak. The chop streaks were twice as long as the runs on one side and so at times like this, there is nothing stopping someone mixing it up and reverting to a 1,2 to keep catching that unit profit. It can all be very fluid depending on the situation and it doesn't have to be either/or.

 

You and I have discussed this offline before Jim, my progression would have won me 3 units on this as well. And very mild.

 

These are great for flat betting but I got up to a 4-unit bet after that four LIAR on the first one. Ended up +8

The second one was +14 with a 2-unit bet after the LL W sequence.

 

The Divisor won 4 units with this one with a highest bet of 4 units.

 

Sorry, I meant to say this one, lol.

W L W LLLL WW L W LL WW LL W L WWW L W.

 

With this one

LLL W LLLL WWWWWWWWWW L =+12


With this one

WWWWWW L WWWWW L WWWWW LL WWW LL = +30

 

LOL
So, everybody wins that shoe. Some people take the whole rack!!

 

It's not easy to figure sometimes. Always good to have an up as you win component with any kind of negative progression. I start with two units. After WW I make a 3 unit bet. If lose I just plugged that in to my normal negative progression and continue. It doesn't raise the progression that much. If I win ! bet 3 units again. Now I can decide to continue up a little bit or back down a little bit and then go back up and continue.

Cheers

 

Good post, I would like to include this quote also

To my mind these two quotes basically sum the situation up pretty much perfectly.
This is the aspect that so many just can’t get a grip of.
Being flexible within your self regulated selection criteria that incorporates effective money management ( unit bet sizing) . I remember calling it a “touchy feely” aspect of my selection criteria during correspondence with jimske and Jacob, sadly it can’t be taught but it can be learned by an individual if you can think outside of the rigid box we work in. paradoxically as that may sound one must be rigid and flexible at the same time.
That aspect is the soul destroying nemesis of any system that’s run as a non personal simulation, it’s the real life play in real time that makes the rigid flexible possible. You can chip up and still be a flat better most of the time and be profitable.
Cheers, good thread , good discussion. Thanks for sharing.

 

I flat bet on losing streaks and progression on winning streaks.

 

I am also using this method. but I still often get strings like LLLWLLWLLLLwwLLwLLwLWLwLwLw... and many such chains on the same day (different times) and that blew away my accumulated profits of many days. The progression I often use is 1-2-4-2-3-4-5.... when I'm winning. When losing any point, it will return to 1 unit

 

Another excellent post. Very well written so dumb people like me can understand.

 

The above has a 37% strike rate. Hard to win such. But that W/L shouldn't be a killer. I think it costs me 3 units. Check the Chingy progression on that.

H

 

Chingy is pretty good when you have to stretch out a tough session.

 

Gotta say the best progression is still the Star style cuz a cat can capture profits with the strikes rate less than 20% hey hey.

 

Thank you for telling us all what the BEST progression is. Why would anyone play anything else? Particularly after the Baccarat Guru soxfan endorsement!

Though. . . I think Patrik posted a modified Star that performs better. Why? Because it actually allows for increased step with lower risk. Check it out - if you want. I like them but don't play either.

Cheers

 

Thank you for your consideration. I'm Vietnamese so I don't understand what the "Chingy" process is like. Could you please explain more clearly for me?

 

Search for Ching A Ling in the Roulette forums. It will be in there. Or search for chingy in user names and that will bring up all of his threads.