Baccarat The Van Kelen Test - Baccarat

Thank you for your guidance! Today, I feel I may have got a VERY bad luck since the start of the game. During my whole 600 bet gameplay, only ONCE I was 12 units away from TIE, it was somewhere around 150-200 bets mark.. Since then I was in a downward spiral, I decided to cut my losses at -40 units.

Do you happen to know any good stop loss points with this strategy?

Also, I look forward to seeing your Holloway progression strategy. I want to do another test run with 600 bets.

 

I stated when you are down -12 is almost the and the downswing drift with the same negative results as an 3+ STDV you can not continue flat betting - but when there is an marathon you have the bell curve and the pendulum effect that kicks in and can manage an -12 unit swing with no furhter action and continue flat betting as 3+ series will come and go in chunks

So i am very sorry to here that you reach -40 and i would never continue betting with susch negative results - do you save the results and can share with us all - as i never reach -40 with this method.
That way we can take an closer look at the statistics.

So this is my advice as i stated in the begining - if you reach 3+ STDV and are in the negative you need an smooth conservattive progression to recoup - if not the swings can drift into the negative in longer perionds and you have no way back.
So the solution is REVERSALS with some degree of help with conservative progression.

So avoid the Ching A Ling effect to stay the whole day in the casino only to recovery session.
I recommend using Holloway from the beginning and quit after +1 unit and restar or go home.

That way you will at some rare days hit a 3+ STDV direct on the spot when entering an table and then if you use the Holloway from begining solve the 3+ STDV situation within 1 to 2 hours play and not 8 hours.

Cheers

 

Should also make clear that a 3+ STDV can come in two different shapes - one rapid and one with longer stretch over time
This means that the singles can smootly drift and slowly come in chunks and make your flat betting slowly drift into the negative with no correction before much later and deeper into the sample size you are playing

When there is simulations and testing you have no end and stop limits - important to know this - because of the following

This will make the Van Kellen Test Fail

When singles stay ahead at all times for an 300 trails sample with very strong underrpresented situations for 3+ series
That means that the ECART slowly grow stronger in a smooth way for a whole 300 sample size

Here no progression will help and you can not succed flat betting in sush situations

So the conclusion of this reflection is that you might skip the Holloway progression and try to develop an stop loss and win target

Cheers

 

ok. i will check results with the hollow man. Is with sports also maximum bet for you 5 units and moving back 2 steps only after 3 win streak?

 

Looking forward to your explanation using Holloway. Thanks Sputnik for your help!

 

Here is another option with some trending element using cycles of seven

You enter a shoe or table then wait for the first 3+ to show and when it ends start betting
Take a win or an TIE - take the one that comes first - start over

This give more control over the flat betting process and comfort zone for decison making when to take a loss

When getting seven singles, stop and take a -7 or less in loss or continue and aim for an TIE or later take another seven singles and around -12 loss - that is cycle based

Do this in-play
When losing seven, wait of a series of three, observe if it become 3 or 4 or 5 and wait until series end and start over with next cycle
This give you control over -7 loss for each cycle and you are free to test flat betting options with win targets and stop loss or apply any conservative staking plan that suits you

Cheers

 

one thing more do you increase to 2 bet only if your minus 5 total, because sometimes there is chop on the third 1 unit so if you count everytime new you get to 2 units more quicker then waiting til minus 5

 

I will test with new strategy, as I think conservative betting process is a must.
When entering table, always wait 3 in a row before betting. Instantly cut losses at 7 singles.

I thinking that if yesterday I've used Holloway with my -40 loss I could have easily went into heavy negative with my bankroll and probably still lost.

 

Well either you solve the solution or not when using Holloway - you don't quit in the middle and blaim the strategy or Holloway
Is would be the say that if i Lay Under 3.5 goals and there is 86 minutes towards the end and 3 goals has been scored and i am afraid one more goal is going to score and that i lose the bet - so i cash out with reduced loss - but there was no furhter goals and the bet was Set & Forget - not an trading strategi - do you see the difference - no wounder you end up with -40 stoping in the early middle of the Holloway.

I suggest you flat betting and take a loss or a win and skip Holloway as it don't suits your mentality.
And also my warning that one sample size of 300 trails can be ahead all the time with singles as overrepresented - then Hollowy bust.

But using trigger that you mention is a good idea - i test this with 4 singles or above and wait for a fictive win with a series of three.
Bet it will become 5 and restart - if not and 4 or 3 continue for the next four bets and if a loss wait for fictive win again and repat the formula
4 versus 1 and 4 verus 1 and 4 more is 2,5 STDV and happens around 1% and 3+ STDV 0,5%

So 4+ fictive win 4+ fictive win 4+ fictive win

A hybrid betwen treding and using trigger and limiting your self to 8 bets window so winnings or ties or take -8 unit loss.
Drift in the middle and make the decisions when to hold and when to fold.

Cheers

 

The Holloway progression is suitable for 2:1 bets, drop back 2 positions on a hit or keep marching forward until profit is achieved, pick your poison:

1,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,14,16,18,20,22,25,28,30,32,35,40,45,50,55,60,70,80,90,100,110,120,135,150

You can cut and divide in any formation and adapt to attacking levels 4, 6, 7 or any
For example

1111122
2233344
556789,10

It would become similar to Ching A Ling staking who won 30.000 during one year

Experiment and search and develop and make your thing work for you - I estimate around 1300£ for bankroll or units to cover the whole progression.
Made a short test with 7 and reached the highest level 1 and highest unit size 2 units for 300 placed bets - and +10 units and lowest was 3 units.
With a house edge of 1.35% that would be similar to betting player side only.

EDIT you might try to stay at one level to solve the situation or use it on a rolling basis as a pendulum effect as raise and fall - I test the first option.

 

Thanks for posting that progression. Your comments are correct. You've got to make your progression work for you. Any progression i've ever seen relies on backing up after a couple wins. The good winds are some kind of modified D'ALEMBERT.

But there's always some subjective input. Personally I use a twenty step progression based on twenty percent up and down. I've used it for years now hundreds of times and have never gone past.The eleventh step except once. And it just so happens at that time.I was using it up as you went so I didn't have to go deep.

Cheers

 

Just wanted to say I REALLY appreciate your posts, Jimske! You make a lot of points, many of which use math as a basis...for instance, you (I think it was you) had pointed out in an earlier message how just by betting bbb ppp bbb ppp bbb etc you would only lose to the 12% of the 3's which were on the opposite side of your bet. Have used this to GREAT advantage, and in craps my spreadsheet shows it's allowing me to play with roughly a 6 to 10% advantage over the house using simple pass and don't pass bets!!!

Anyway, just wanted to thank you for your contributions!!!

 

Can you share a link where I can read more on this strategy?

 

Yes, I also would like to see the link or further explanation. Thanks for the info.

 

I'm not sure what's being asked. I think we're referring to regarding bet selection is XXXYYY. Johno preferred that one. I always liked XXYY from Stetson Bailey. They both have their own nemesis that occurs at a particular frequency. I don't use either one but I have used both in the past. They both do fine with a deep progressto a point of course.

 

Sorry for the confusion...don't remember the exact post...but here is the premise:

The law of large numbers states the more RANDOM decisions you have, the closer to the expected outcomes...for instance, say 100 decisions, 50 of them are going to be 1's (or chops) BPBPBPBP and so on... of the remaining 50 decisions, 25 are going to be 2's BBPPBBPPBB and so on. Out of the remaining 25, 12 will be 3's and above BBBPPPBBBPPP... So how to bet? Your bet selection should be bbbpppbbbppp and so on, and the only thing that will beat you is the 3's on the opposite side of your bet, which happens about 12% of the time!!!!!

 

CPS10 & Jimskey

I start with you and if I remember correctly Keith.
The reason I post this in public is that maybe some other interesting person will contact me.

I want to do 1000 place bets - one side only - with pure 50/50 distribution - and want some help from others and maybe get a larger sample with 1000 placed each.

The reason is that I have and will share the odds criteria selection to get the exact 50/50 distribution with the odds 1,8 to 1,99 for both Under/Over 2.5 goal market football and this market in majority has very high liquidity - where I aim to stake $20 to $50 flat betting - the Risk & Reward and downswing look very good and is a very conservative flat betting method.

And have the same, but two criteria for the Horse Races that create pure 50/50 distribution.
I share that also.

Now this is using Holloway in segments like Ching A Ling levels and to bust with 4 units placement you have 3+ STDV that happens 0,5%
Just to give a hint about the Holloway.

So we depend on the pendulum effect and variance and also the 60.000 placed bets with Kortech stats for REVERSALS that is around 1% or less for not happening and then Holloway Kicks in and resolves the situation (LONG TERM) and the majority of 1% situations.
That is the idea.

It might take some time to reach 30K but not impossible.

For Jimskey - one side only and low house edge - Player Side - with the same approach - my assumptions are - gold mine.

But first, some extended testing helps to get a more significant estimation.
Send me a private message for instructions.

This is a short - not on a rolling basis - reach the target and restart.
a +1 quit at any point
b +0 quit at any point
minus -2 and not option a and b above we are in recovery mode that can end up as +1 or +0 depending on in-play situation.
For example, if we are at -3 and have a stake of 1 and with two bets, then we are -1, then if the next attempt wins the first bet and we reach 0 we quit.
And if we have the same situation but with -5 and stake 2 and win twice and are -1 we bet next bet 1 to reach 0 - even if we are at level two staking 2233344
All other situations that end up +1 are just a good thing and we quit.

Here is a short sample playing one side only ... where the trails are from both outcomes.

+0, 38 trails
+1, 7 trails
+1, 8 trails
+1, 2 trails
+1, 6 trails
+0, 180 trails
+1, 3 trails
+0, 21 trails
+1, 2 trails
+1, 3 trails
+0, 31 trails

And thanks to saving Ching A Ling topic into PDF we can read that with this approach we need to be prepared to spend half or a whole day to just reach a TIE - that comes with the territory.
But on the other hand, we have days we spend less than 10 min and profit +1 or +0.
So around 5 sessions with a medium or short amount of trials we make around +3 units.
With a hybrid between flat betting and applying Holloway for safety reasons.

 

can you send me a pm?