Roulette Law of the third analysis

For some reason my other replies are whited out and moderated - no idea why. I copy and pasted them here again.

Keeping this as it's interesting.

Yeah, I tried to do a bit of digging on cold numbers using a cumulative hit rate but it wasn't sensitive enough to catch when the cold numbers go hot. However I did have pretty good results betting splits that hadn't shown up for 60 spins, although it can get pretty sketchy. I used a neg prog. definitely wouldn't reccommmend incase the wheel is biased - you're betting on a permenantly cold number lol. A lot of times I had to take the progression like 30 to 50 levels. But it did make more than it lost in my simulations (10 players 20k rounds each, the survivers made more than the total lost).

I finally found that tracker somewhere in the forum yesterday as all links to it are no longer hosting it. I am not really sure how it works though. I also havent spent a ton of time investigating it either though.

Ah I see. I think I know what you mean. So #2 hits 2x +1 to repeater count, then #2 hits 3x so another +1 to repeater count? Etc..
I posted a reply to @baccarou above, not sure if you can see it... For some reason it says its moderated and all the text is whited out?
Horseraces

I've got some horserace graphs here. Been trying to find a pattern, tried so many different ways of looking at it. Yes the obvious pattern that the spins gaps are less than 35 (doesn't work out to bet them though). I've tried looking at it as initial position to see if they keep rank order, I have animated graphs of these, etc.. There's definitely some other way to look at it that I'm not considering. Clearly though, when you see these animated in action the most common situation is for it to fill out fairly evenly. It's almost like it the different levels take turns.... randomly. Odd but unpredictable so far. Definitely the most obvious finding is that the last numbers out usually REMAIN last for quite some time.

These are just the standard horseraces we can see in turbos excel photos, I made them fancy to help show any patterns. I have a couple variations including replacing the pocket number with the number in which it came out. A form of indexing to see if order is preserved... Not really.
In these graphs you can see in # 5 6 7 they are 37 spin cycles, but the first, second and third graphed separately. #8 is all 3 together in order they came out and the rest are obvious if you read the titles of the graph. It's all from the same game.



In these next ones, they are all different games of 10 cycles. Just for fun. If anyone sees anything they better tell me! lol


Going to be running more tests on the horserace. Checking top #s from each doz, double streets as well maybe. Testing dropping numbers out etc..

 

Chrono
The math gang want 37 spins. 24/13.
But on average/usually 40 spins shows 24/16. We've not mentioned the 60 spin average.
60 spins repeat average is 1-3-5-7&30. 30 of the 60 spins are 1x; the other 30 are more than 1x.
So, a Turbo fan says make 100 units for 100 games.
Now, depending on how the TG fan plays; getting 100 units takes time.




Some games take many spins.



Instead here is taking 1st win 72 spin in total for profit of 241 only flat betting so far.
So, is it better to get the 1st profit or go on trying for the 100 units.

 

Unhit and repeats are exactly the same after 37 spins....

 

Profit/Loss betting on unique numbers: 11462
Profit/Loss betting on repeat numbers: 7647
Profit/Loss betting on unhit numbers: 11707


Profit/Loss betting on unique numbers: 11777
Profit/Loss betting on repeat numbers: 7402
Profit/Loss betting on unhit numbers: 11637


Profit/Loss betting on unique numbers: 11602
Profit/Loss betting on repeat numbers: 7927
Profit/Loss betting on unhit numbers: 11287

Profit/Loss betting on unique numbers: 11637
Profit/Loss betting on repeat numbers: 7577
Profit/Loss betting on unhit numbers: 11602

 

Rather than referring to numbers as being unhit or hit, think in terms of hits above expectation over horizon length X.

What you're really looking for are distributions that look like something outside of the normal expectation. Expectation isn't going to enable you to win because you have no way of knowing whether or not a number that's hot will continue hitting... or if it will suddenly stop hitting over the next series of spins. Remember, each spin is an independent trial.

What you're really looking for are biased wheels and machines. Quit testing the RNGS! That's silly. The law of third can be used like a chi square test. When you see distributions that look outside of the normal data, keep tracking. Increase the size of your test horizons. Don't limit them to only 37 spins, increase to at least 300 spin lengths. Correlate data groups from the same wheel. Use the chi square to determine which wheels are the best. Try and get at least 7500 spins on wheels.

Once you've collected some real data, then horizon betting takes on new meaning. What you'll find is that betting on numbers that several hits above expectation begin producing some real results.

 

finally ...a reply from you that has at least some meaning to someone...maybe even helpful....looks like this topic is of interest to you ...

but let me just add a few comments....

If just working from spin 1 to 37 ...this comment is true if you are going for hot numbers...and stopping and starting a new fresh cycle from 1 spin to 37 and going again....

however these two cycles of 37 are just a snapshot of 37 spins starting and stopping from 1 point to the end....

snapshots on a timeline..disjointed....

and bingo....here is the result of that ...this of course is becouse what goes up must come down...what goes down must go up....

unhits unique and repeats all adhere to the above quotes,,,

so true..However on a rolling 37 count basis these individual spins show the true nature of a spinning wheel in a step/spin by spin controlled basis across all three states..unhit,,unique..repeats....

all counts will go up and down in a controlled wave form spin by spin.....minumums and maximums ....ranges...

 

If we go back to rrbb ,Disclaimer: it is a view, not a strategy.
Things like bias are happening, is it so simple so we just bet on those numbers and that's it!!!

 

You guys are stuck Later tonight I'm going to show you guys how to make this work using real data.

 

Give it a try!

 

Look forward to it...there are always different ways to skin a cat..

 

The most basic of law of third analysis is this. Track 3 equal payout locations. Over a specific time, one location will show above average. One will show exactly at average and one will show below average.

 

6th-sence based on your solution where we should base our rolling base cycle for str8 to 37?
If we go higher level the balance will change , what i mean is we will have for example more repeats so higher nrs to bet on!
On 111 cycle i did a test, i can't see what is the best cycle!

 

Just got back from a fishing trip on Manitoulin island.. awesome spot.

Anyway back with some analysis that I was working on before the trip. My other replies to this thread were moderated and whited out - no idea why...

This data is all just whatever random column in my dataframe I decided to pick. All the images with 1 are from the same data group and same with the images with 2.

So I was working on turbos horserace stuff before I left. Personally, I haven't seen any 'patterns' so to speak. Aside from the obvious where the hot numbers will at some point hit a bunch of times well under the payout. But no way to predict it, and I've coded that and found nothing there.

I have some heatmaps we can go through. If anyone see's anything please let me know lol. I am not seeing anything besides the obvious mentioned above - nothing that would help with predictions.

So first up I've got just the pockets and their 'first to' positions. The numbers should be read like so: (pocket number, current spin number). First spin is always 0.



So in this I cant see any discernable pattern that would indicate when a number is going to go on a run. So sure I can see the past, but that's fairly useless.

Then I had the thought, maybe the numbers that go on runs come out in the same order. @eugene mentioned it in the advantage of repeaters thread. So I replaced all the pocket numbers with their initial spin number. So these are (initial spin #, current spin #).



You could potentially argue that the earliest numbers out are the ones that tended to become the hottest. And honestly when I look at this in more cycles, it's clear the last numbers out tend to stay last for a looonng time (usually). So that's helpful in what NOT to do (bet on the last of something). And potentially points us in to what we should do. Again, I don't see anything that can actually help us make predictions here. There's still no information on how to reliably bet #1, #2, #3 etc.. All my simulations that I coded (I ran hundreds of thousands) were at almost exactly the expectation, so at least it wasn't operating under expectation lol. Interestingly, even a 0.25% edge above expectation resulted in a MUCH better outcome flat betting. I tried betting just the top numbers, dropping them off after x amount of spins (5 - 50 or so) and moving down the list and only betting 1 or 2 numbers, 4.. whatever. All ended up performing at expectation +/- 0.15% - 0.25%.

Ok so then I decided, well maybe I should have a look at the bet types (dozens, streets, etc..). Admittedly I've only done this for the Dozens so far. I replaced all the pocket numbers with the corresponding dozen. Thinking maybe the dozens come out in rank order, again exploring eugenes comment that turbo took the time to point out. I don't see any discernable patterns here either.



So my thoughts on the horserace are that it's definitely not any way to bet, and I don't think he even meant to present it as that. As a betting strategy it appears to be a dead end. I am not seeing anything come out in the order (maybe that's the point eh? the same numbers will never hit in the same patterns...). It's just a thought experiment to get people thinking.

Although there are flashes of opportunities here, there's nothing obvious in which to capitalize on. Will be moving on to the next analysis. Comments and thoughts very welcome, maybe I'm missing something dead simple here and I'm not seeing it because I've been staring at numbers and colors for too long..

 

Keeping this as it's interesting.

I am having trouble figuring out how everyone is counting this. I just took the sum of all repeats in the cycle and divided against the unhits to get my ratio. I counted a number that hit 5times as a 5x, so 5x + a 2x + 3x or whatever was there. I should have gotten a 1:1 ratio but I didn't

Again I'm not seeing how they're being counted. 15 unhits, yes I see that, but there's 13 1x and 9 2x, and any combination of those aren't equaling 15.

Interesting, so betting on uniques and unhits in anticipation of them showing up is showing a larger profit than repeats in your tests?

So you're betting on the average times repeaters show up in these examples?

What does this mean: 1-3-5-7&30

I never could reliably figure out when a cold number would go hot. They'd go super cold hit once then stay cold forever while others would go hot or luke warm after a hit.

I wouldn't say I'm looking to take advantage of expectation perse. More looking for some advantageous pattern that I can exploit via algorithmic filtering/sorting. You can see in my horserace analysis post just above that I had zero bet selections give anything better than expectation. And definitely, the frustrating thing is not knowing when a hot number will go cold, etc.. I think geometric pmf tracking can help with that... maybe. I am aware that's pure gamblers fallacy.

Now I personally don't care if a wheel is biased or not. If I found a biased wheel you better believe I'm taking full advantage of that. I'm just not sure how common they really are. Are there any in southwestern ontario? I wouldn't imagine so, but I haven't looked.

So from what I'm gathering from your reply, 7500 spins is minimum reliable amount of data, if something looks suspect within 300 spins then keep tracking. What kind of data are you correlating (Correlate data groups from the same wheel)? I'd be interested in hearing more, I'm always open to learning and investigating.

Also looking forward to this.

Ok I think I'll jump on to this analysis next. I'll see how long this 'specific time' is and if there is a switching point. This is a similar direction as the turbo 6 streets more on repeaters thread and I was already heading in that direction.

Thanks for the replies everyone.

 

Those photos you added are interesting. So they are showing the cumultion and dissipation of uniques, repeats and unhits over time - on a rolling 37 cycle? As time goes on through the cycle unhits decrease while uniques increase, then repeaters increase while unhits increase and so on? Is that the idea?

I think I'm going to look into this as well.

 

And this is sadly not true as explained in the turbo thread. A number doesnt need to go down or up. To get back to its average.

 

I appreciate your hard work. You go beyond the few 10's of test most people do here. I also did hundreds (yes hundreds) of tests. My results are on this forum. Unfortunatly my results were the same as yours...

 

I never said anything about a number returning to average...I think you misunderstood what I said

 

This is what I meant...they all increase and decrease as a number collective in their own groups ..unhit..unique..repeats going up and and down cycling through the average expectation point ..one way then the other ..a wave form ..all within a range ...