Baccarat Math-Based Trends - Don't Trust Gambling Experts!

Math-Based Trends - Don't Trust Gambling Experts!

From gambler to gambler, they are wrong, gambling experts when they say trends don't exist and are based upon gamblers' fallacy

You can measure ECART - STDV - Z-Score
Observe how Underrepresented and Overrepresented events perform
You can categorize them and list them with different probability expectations
Compare different statistical results and samples
Play with or Against success based on a solid statistical foundation
Explore three outcomes, profit, loss, tie
Take a deeper look into reversals and variance and categorize, list and compare
Among other things ...
Progressions is tools
Math and probability selections has value

This is an intro to describe how I build a complete playing model on a solid foundation and not magical thinking.
Not saying you beat the game, but stepping up with quality and knowledge from being naive.
Is not for everyone, but I know I will save one soul and that makes my effort worth it.

 

So that is the first stage and i will describe and post-placed bets and tell you the math mechanism and the probability mechanism towards why the results above are what they are.
How about that?

John Patrick wrote that one of his dominating selections was eight black or eight red and then played for some degree of hits of the opposite.
All I know was that some degree of value as eight more would reach beyond 3+ STDV so some kind of regression, small, medium or large.

But is impossible to build a march to get the evens with small attack momentum.
So I turn my back to Marigny De Grilleua who uses the law of series with math and probability calculations.

So seven singles and bet they will continue to grow stronger and not get and direct full regression towards the mean and aim for 3+ and beyond.
That way we get clear ways to develop an algorithm or march with success.
100% mechanical, no feelings, so nothing can go wrong and you just trust your statistical output or results.

So you play for singles to continue to hit and continue until you get a series of five in a row as that is a 3-point regression and stop the possibility for the sequence to grow beyond 3+ STDV.
If you don't get five you might get four, then you continue until you have another three in a row, together they are 3-point regression.
If you get a series of three and after that, a series of four, is the same as the line above.
Now you might only get a series of three, then you need three of them to stop betting, that is also a 3-point regression.

If you get one or two and not full 3-point regression and another seven singles to hit, you continue from scratch and all the rules starts from the beginning again, when that happens you profit +10 +20 or +30 units - see charts.
Will post placed bets for each chart, so you can backtrack.

So now that we know where why and how they perform we can talk about tools like progressions.
I will experiment and test Regression Up & Pull.
Where some times you end up with +1 and other times strike +30 units and on rare occasions -6 units.
Not sure if it will work, other options are Guetting.

Just make some tests and see how they perform and reflect and make some decisions to move forward.

Cheers

 

Some reflection, after checking the results by just following the rules above with 10 sessions.
So flat betting or some kind of positive progression should do the trick.
And risk reward ratio is great, on occasions with big wins and occasions with scratch wins and small chunks of loses.

If not long term it would be great to introduce fun players who want to spend time with food and drink and some action.
Without losing their shirts.

-3
-2
+5
+21
-3
-1
+1
-3
+15
-1

+42 Won
-13 Loss

I let this post run by itself as inspiration for someone who finds it interesting.
You find PDF simulation charts and simulation tools to check or build playing models on the forum.
Search by name and topics.

Cheers

 

Those are some impressive numbers Patrik! Thanks for sharing!

 

Patrick, could you please upload the placed bets for those charts?

 

What happened to Patrik sports betting?

 

I fixed the charts today.
Sports trading is well but not that much action as there are only summer leagues.

 

Well, I feel there is no need to post placed bets, as any combination with seven will work, using the law of series or Marigny playing models or just your common string of seven in a row, run a short test to show the same profit output with big wins and scratch wins and small chunks of small loses.

This sample took 902 outcomes to find 10 seven strings
The first line of the seventh sequence
Second line the outcomes after such a sequence and after that wins and loses to show the flat betting results

+23
-8

xxxxxxx - xxxoxxxxxoo - wwwlwwwwwll +5
ooooooo - oooooooxoooxox - wwwwwwwlwwwlwl +8
xxxxxxx - xoxxxxxxxoxxoxxxxo - wlwwwwwwwlwwlwwwwl +10
xxxxxxx - xoxoo - wlwll -1
ooooooo - xxoox - llwwl -1
xxxxxxx - xxoxoo - wwlwll +0
ooooooo - xoxx - lwll -2
xxxxxxx - xooxo - wllwl -1
ooooooo - oxxox - wllwl -1
xxxxxxx - xooo - wlll -2

 

Well is not practical - I would only recommend this to fun players with some common sense and could myself considering this.

So two hours at the table - with 100 trails or one baccarat shoe - then food and drink and being social with company
Let's check the estimation
Suddenly there will be a big win but with this sample and two weeks of visits +2 units
That is how I simulate a real-life situation

day 1
day 2
day 3 -1 unit
day 4 +0 unit
day 5 -3 unit
day 6 +8 unit
day 7

day 1 +0
day 2 -1
day 3 +0
day 4
day 5
day 6 -1
day 7

 

One interesting observation was made with 3-point regression where we look at the same march and algorithm but reverse and aim for regression.
Seems like Brett Morton had some truth behind his claims, but he uses four attempts.
I will adapt the math and probability frequencies into this and test further and if satisfied results apply the money management with Happy/Gold Top and Saftey Nets.

That would be really cool.

 

@Sputnik From your experience, when starting the game and you happen to keep winning. At how many units profit do you usually stop the session and take the profits before the reversals start to occur?

For example, at start of game you are up 15 units, then you start going into reversal and stumbled on 7 singles and now you are down to 8 units profit.
Would you take 8 units profit or keep betting?

 

Hello - I will mention that read the march or algorithm above again with 3-point regression, again.
When you get 3-point regression you stop, clear rules and 100% mechanical.

I would recommend trying to use a positive progression to boos and maximum profits and still take small tiny losses.
Also, look into the Brett Morton EC approach with both a money management plan and a parlay solution.

And with baccarat singles or series or straight common seven in a row gives you four ways to see and observe qualifiers with one shoe that would become 4 x 80 trails or 320 outcomes total for each shoe that will produce around 2 to 3 qualifiers, estimation.

With roulette and all EC you get 12 with over 1000 for each 300 samples with many qualifiers during one evening.
So the likelihood of getting one big swing each visit is very big among the small loses.

Cheers

 

Here is the exact description of one variant of Brett Morton using a 3-point reverse
(that the STDV will not grow another 3 points before some degree of regression)

So I now know that he is probably speaking the truth in he's book, even if he not reveal how he do things
But I get positive results just flat betting with one of he's suggestions and with positive progression or parlay even better results with the implementation of Happy/Gold top targets and bottom line target safety net.

Will explore this further

flat betting +26 and -14

Code:

bbbbbb - rbrrrbb - lwwwll - +0
bbbbbb - rrrrbrrrbb - wwwlwwwwll +4
rrrrrrr - bbrbbbrbr - wlwwwlwl +1
rrrrrrr - bbrbbbbrr - wlwwwwll +2
rrrrrrrrrr - brrr - lll -3
rrrrrr - brbrr - lwll -2
rrrrrr - brrr - lll -3
rrrrrr - brrbr - llwl -2
bbbbbb - rrbrbrrrrrrrrrrrrbrbrb - wlwlwwwwwwwwwwwwlwlwl +11
bbbbbb - rrrrbbb - wwwwlll +1
rrrrrrr - brrr - lll -3
rrrrrrr - bbrbbbbbrbbbbr - wlwwwwwlwwwwl +7
bbbbbbbb - rbbrrb - llwwl -1

 

Thanks for the explanation:
"So you play for singles to continue to hit and continue until you get a series of five in a row as that is a 3-point regression and stop the possibility for the sequence to grow beyond 3+ STDV.
If you don't get five you might get four, then you continue until you have another three in a row, together they are 3-point regression.
If you get a series of three and after that, a series of four, is the same as the line above.
Now you might only get a series of three, then you need three of them to stop betting, that is also a 3-point regression."

I understand the gameplay as you described above, I will try it out tomorrow!
Now speaking of triggers, when you enter the table, is there any specie trigger you are waiting for before you start betting?
(I usually wait for series of 3 before placing first bet)

 

Personally, I like to bet there will be none of the 3-point regression.

So pick six or seven or any other string of events and bet they will continue to strike until you have three of the opposite side, then stop.
With one exception, if you win another six or seven in a row, you then can wait for another 3 opposite to show.

I can not explain it more clearly than that.

So I would experiment with 11 1,5 2 after that you can decide to continue with 0,5 increments of 34567 and so on.
Depending on how aggressive you want to be.

But Brett Morton Bank Management is a very clever approach.
Assume you are up 3,5 units, then you never lose it all back.
Either you reach +0 or +1 depending on what bottom line target you set as a safety net.

Or you could stake 1 and on a win, then 2 and bank +3 with two bets only.
Then you have 2 units to continue to profit if you strike and reach other win targets.
The first example takes three bets, but I assume both lose the same but handle zig-zag differently.

Level at 11 and then increase you will tackle the zig-zag with +1 and +0 or -1 and +0.
But with parlay, you would lose -1 unit for each zig-zag.

W 1
L 2 -1
W 1 -0
L 2 -2
W 1 -1
L 2 -3

or

L 1 -1
W 1 +0
L 2 -2
W 1 -1
L 2 -3
W 1 -2
L 2 -4

and level stake

W 1 +1
L 1 +0
W 1 +1
L 1 +0
W 1 +1
L 1 +0

or

L -1
W +0
L -1
W +0
L -1
W +0
L -1

So I like the idea of level stake with two bets and after that to some degree increasing stake as implementing positive progression.
I like the idea of pulling back 50% after each win.

2 2 3 4 6 9,13,20,30,45,

the question is when to stop
so I would like to implement that one with similarities with Guetting

1
1
1,5
2
3
4
6
13
20
30
45

I would suggest exploring Happy Point and Gold Poit targets with bottom line targets using Brett Morton money management.
That would give a clear guide on when to stop when to push and when to quit.

 

I will update this topic with some real simulation software that I will share, soon ...

Cheers

 

Here is a short sample and all except the last one are ahead +1 after the +1 win trigger
So this is how real regression toward the mean looks like in real life with 100% pure TRNG and real bias with strong ECART

W W W W W L L W L W L L W W W L W W L L W W W W L L W W W W W L W W L L W L L W L W W L L L
W W W L L L
W W W L L L
L W W L W W L L L
L W W L L W L L L
W W W L W W W W L W L W W L L W L L W L W W W W W L L L
L W W L W L W W L W W L L L
L W L L L

This would be optimal for 321

+27
- 9

+6
+6
+6
+1
+1
+6
+1
- 9

And with roulette, you can make the zero vanish with hedge bet and flat betting in combination.
Where you use a higher base bet and regress.

I decided not to continue with this - but hope you have fun and happy winnings.

Cheers

 

Sputnik I like your analysis and have a question about progression for a 50/50 .. is there an optimal prog for stats like the above as i for now x2 my bet as simple as that on a loss but I don't like the idea about x2 on a loss?

Thank you

 

atrox23 I will share one very, very, very interesting observation, the sample above are after 3+ STDV
and you can experiment with other values or windows of imbalance.

Now look at this, majority are ahead +1
If you bet a tie or LW you can still aim for +1 and then you need to win at least two in a row as you are down -1.
So with simplicity, you will expect +2 as the minimum after one loss.
And if you reach 3-point you can quit.

That is an algorithm or march I have not tested and maybe you can stretch things to use a string of four-level bets at 1111.
Feel free to experiment.

I just feel that when some people say that doesn't work or you can not do that - they don't have statistical samples or show placed bets with at least 1000 placed bets with the van Keelen test.
So don't trust them because they never show or contribute anything of value, a waste of our valuable time.
I treat them as scam artists and liars.

Who gives an Fxxx if they claim something without proof?
There are members who are begging such people to reveal their nonsense and it will never happen.

Time to make this forum section of higher quality and add some real value to things.
That's why I have been posting so much lately.

 

My bet for what i posted is on a 50/50 lets say, as in roulette its not but we say 50/50..
The 76% 24% for me after an amount of input it is almost constant, i did continue a bit more just now and i play every spin but can play with a (trigger) also.. Now on spin 397 my % is the same as previous..

Thank for your answer ..