Baccarat Analyzing Brett Morton

Analyzing Brett Morton

He says he often quit before reaching "Happy Point" and sometimes pushed for "Gold Top" and "JackPot Territory"

I have tried several methods and several ideas with staking variations.
And I find one among all the variations of testing that one approach is working very well.

But it's too early to decide if Brett Morton speaks the truth.
He is not revealing when he bets and states it is not necessary on a rolling basis and pauses can be used.

I skip the Parlay approach and use two wins then increase to reach "Happy Point" or reach "Bottom Line Target" at 0,5 units.

I will run 100 sessions and decide it I am going to continue this topic.
The following is based upon a variation of Sputniks March with a hybrid between flat betting and positive progression.

+37.5
-13

- - -

+3,5
+8,5
+0,5
+1,5
-3
+1,5
+6,5
+1,5
-3
+1,5
+0,5
+1,5
-2
-3
+1,5
+3,5
+0,5
-2
+0,5
+1,5
+3,5

- - -

I am in love with he's bank management strategies.
When to stop and take a scratch or loss, when to push and reach the jackpot, and when to be satisfied with alternative win targets.

The following results are 100% mechanical, no guessing.

Cheers

 

Sometimes when you feel “satisfied” you should walk away. Where did you find information on his money management techniques?

 

The whole premises is are you
1. Getting lucky.
2. Managing to get a favorable variance your way soon enough or several times.
3. Playing at will consistently with no required stops because your setbacks are limited.

3. is very hard.

 

Well I can't post links but if you google Brett Morton Money Management ......

 

Free from my mind.

He states that you win at least four out of five sessions regularly where the winnings are preferable more than the losing session, which is as low loss as possible.

So first you set that attack sequence, for example, 3 or 4 units flat betting first then parlay.
So a direct loss with no winning bet would be -3 or -4 units, no more.

Then you set your first win target which has the name Happy Point.
The amount that makes you Happy or satisfied.
This should be around what you are prepared to risk or lose with that particular session.
But a little smaller than a 50/50 win target versus loss limit would be preferable.

Let's say 4 as the first attack sequence.
And 5 unit loss limit.
And Happy Point 3 units.

Now comes the step to decide the Bottom Line Target.
That is a mechanism that works like a safety net.
So if you reach Happy Point you never can lose that session and you will stop if you reach Bottom Line Target.

Let's say you reach +3 units and Happy Point.
Now you can decide if you are willing to risk 2 more units to reach the next win target level or willing to risk 3 units to reach the next win target.
Let's say you set the next win target Gold Top at 5 units and not reach it using 3 units winning units.
Then you fall back to the Bottom Line Target +0 and have to stop playing and the session is over.

You were up +3 once and reached Happy Point.
You could stop and take the profit and the session is over.
You could push for more and reach Gold Top and risk your profit pot of +3 units knowing if you do not succeed you break even.
And have the comfort zone not losing that session as you reach Bottom Line Target.
All those mental rules and decision-making guidelines.

Note if you decided to risk 2 and not 3 units and decide to push for Gold Top and not succeed.
Then the Bottom Line Target would leave you with that session with +1 unit.
So would you prefer more units to push and reach the next win target or would you prefer to always leave all sessions with a small win if not reaching higher win targets with the Bottom Line Target set to minimum +1 unit?
Is a tricky question and decision-making as both +0 and +1 are no loss and winning in my book when applying the Bottom Line Target.

Now if you reach Gold Top at 5 units you can not risk more than 2 units to reach the next win target.
You lock in the profit of the Happy Point, safety net.
So you higher you set the win targets you more you have to push for more to reach the next level.
But then you have to risk more and play with larger amounts.

So now you have 2 units to reach JackPot from Happy Points 5 units and set the target at 7 units with my example.
If you reach 7 units you can not lose more than 2 units and have locked in the Gold Top win target of +5 units (safety net).

Here you can decide to do two things in Jackpot territory.
You can continue to risk 2 units to reach higher levels of profits with no limits and continue pushing until you win a lot or fall back to the Gold Top at +5 units and stop.
Or you can just let the last unit when reaching +7 ride and strike and take the win or loss.
If a loss you take +6 and quit and winning you take the winning amount and quit.

I have never seen such clever and smart money management.
It embraces all the mentality factors when dealing with taking a loss when to push, and when to use decision-making to stop and be satisfied.

The variations are beyond my description above.

You can decide to reach some levels at Happy Point before deciding to use other sessions where you push for higher levels.
To lock in the four winning out of five sessions territory.
Or you can always push and be aggressive as in my example above with the posted results.
Where the profit would be much higher is I decided to be satisfied with Happy Point?
Also, see the expectation that when being aggressive you have one or two Jackpots every 20 sessions.
And more Gold Tops and many Bottom Line Targets.

This should make you view the results above with an whole new understanding.

Bottom Line Target
Happy Point
Gold Top
Jackpot

The money for a used book is worth it just for that chapter in it, in my opinion.

Cheers

 

Correcting text error

So now you have 2 units to reach JackPot from Happy Points 5 units and set the target at 7 units with my example.
If you reach 7 units you can not lose more than 2 units and have locked in the Gold Top win target of +5 units (safety net).

Should this correct text

So now you have 2 units to reach JackPot from Gold Top 5 units and set the target at 7 units with my example.
If you reach 7 units you can not lose more than 2 units and have locked in the Gold Top win target of +5 units (safety net).

 

With the following results, you have positive expectations with over +30 sessions using Brett Morton's principle.
I can state that he's telling the truth, even if he is not revealing what and when he bet on certain events.

However, I use the regression toward the mean and the law of series by applying math and probability expectations.
Or I was able to reverse engineer everything with success.

The following is flat betting with no curve fitting, just to show their output with 100% pure random bits.
Now consider the following samples with the money management strategies described above.
Succes!

I will run them with the original parlay and my winning two and then increase the stake.
I love those two variations.

 

Here is a raw estimation to see how I know I will reach more profits than losses with Brett Morton's Money Management

The +2 units overcome the loss of -3 and I know that several +2 will reach both Gold Top and Jackpot territory.
So I know the profits will be more than the losses.
I win three out of four sessions when checking previous results and current results.
That is not four out of five as he states in his book, but he says it's preferred no exact strike ratio.
And three out of four give overall profit and four out of five would be awesome.

So some tweaking and development are needed to have an optimal approach.
And everything has a learning curve.

 

Nobody plays anything for a few units. What happens then? The game is over and the magic risk profile resets until next session vs continuing and it doesn't?

 

Sputnik your window size?

 

The framework of what Brett Morton stated is very good, but this points to the massive challenge around playing.
1. Getting lucky.
2. Managing to get a favorable variance your way soon enough or several times.
3. Playing at will consistently with no required stops because your setbacks are limited.

Whether you are playing back to back hands or selecting a hand to play over hours, Brett Morton's stop loss or profit targets could theoretically be hit extremely fast or over those hours, but according to game play math... the risk does not change. So then what? Let's say you play continuous hands then are you in and out in 15 minutes and go home? What if you think you have an edge by selecting the super key hands and decide to make win by dragging that out over 3 hours. Does the risk change? No. Do you start another session after that. The whole construct aligns with gambler's fallacy type themes IMO. I always used Brett Morton's money management for trailing stop and stop type decisions.

I have countless examples as does most everyone. One time a player started right at the beginning of a major Bank Dragon Tail of around 14 - 16 in a row. He caught every single win right from his first hand played. So we guess he should call that a session? Go home? Set a trailing stop? Extremely difficult to walk in and turn around and go home in a short time.

 

Thank you Patrik. That is an interesting approach that Brett has. I have used a similar approach without the labels of Gold Top, Happy Point, etc.

For example, if I have a goal of 10 units and make it, I will say “let’s reach for 12, but don’t go below 8”. If I get to 12, I reset and go for 15 and not go below 9 or 10. It takes a lot of discipline because some players will go for that 12, lose the next bet and be below the 10 goal. Those players become angry with their decision and luck and think they can get back to 10. A lot of those times they continue to lose until they wind up with +0 or even losing.

So yes, using a technique like Morton’s takes discipline in order to be successful. You can buy the eBook online and I might do so today as for US$15 it seems like worthwhile information.

 

I understand your point of view and I just want to state there is no edge to be found, but lose less and with some discipline try to stay above the water line, that is my approach when playing for fun or having a good time at the casino.
I know when to take and accept a loss and when to quit because I am a semi-professional sports trader.

The fallacy is within the concept that you could expect any outcome after any sequence of six using regular patterns.
But I use solid playing models based on math and probability and don't use or rely on any fallacy.
Because when I state something and show something I can verify the exact statistical results and explain where, when and why something happens.

So a window of six with four attempts attacking sequence covers ten events.
That is the direct losing window of singles and series of two with no winning bet.

Then we can apply the Z-score or STDV and measure the strength behind such window and how other that window occurs and is pretty rare.
With statistics.

Now we can also state that another six singles with a series of two would be a window of 3+STDV and happen around 0,3%.
In both directions when talking about Banker and Player hands.

Also when referring to this playing model.
Where the regression towards the mean will hit that situational situation or window as a common output where you expect at least one or two wins or more.
Also, this can be proven with statistical samples and be measured with math and probability.

No math system can beat the game, but if I can hover around zero ground and sometimes be happy with some Jackpot territory and end some months of real action play in the casino with a positive amount in my gambling bankroll I would be more then happy.

Cheers

 

Keith is a good read and I would say that the explanation of the EC venture using the Bank management described above is worth 15$.
Then you can see the other chapters as a bonus.
Don't expect a detailed explanation where why and how to bet on EC, he is not revealing that, but I understand and comprehend because is the same with sports where the secret sauce is kept in the dark, if you don't know where to look and where to go.

 

I have the placed bets for all the charts - if needed.
If someone wants to know the math and probability research their statistical samples and wants an illustration of the playing model I can explain.
Once, because I have no time for full beginners and show them all the angles, you need some basic understanding and stand on your own.

And this is opposite to using GR8 progression or HOlloway as we use flat betting and positive progression only or alternative Parlay

Cheers

 

Great work as usual! We old pros need some teachings as well sometimes!

Speaking of sports - I’m on a hot streak in baseball - have won my last 12 bets!

 

I did converted the splits for example to 1 and -1 and gave them a window of 18 there was 4 bets within 500 # ,after RTTM was 0.4 and 100% hit rate!

 

Hello, I assume RTTM is the "Regression Towards The Mean" Are you saying that a window of 18 singles and any amount of series of 2s would have a 100% hit ratio with some kind of series or at least one that is three in length or above?
I know that is not the truth.

So maybe I misunderstand your numbers and don't comprehend what they mean or reflect.
If you want to code this you only need to see how many times you get an +2 flat betting with a series of three or higher striking and that number overcomes or makes a break even with the negative results that can be set to -3 or -4.

The problem with such a test is that when you reach Happy or Gold Top and sometimes Jackpot territory you don't know the profit you make.
How many times for each and every target and how do they overcome the loss limits that are set using the rules above?

With my short sample above I can see that I win a minimum of three out of four and I reckon that winning two out of three also would make an overall profit, as the Gold Top and Jackpot Territory would compensate.

And if you are going to trust Brett Morton travelling around the world playing with success, then there should be some value and merit into he's claims.
My sample above is 30+ with a positive output using he's Bank management strategy with no negative progression.

Cheers

 

Hi, Could u play a shoe with ur bet selection & brett Morton's MM, that will make things Crystal clear, Appreciate ur Cooperation, thanks

 

Yes

No , it was mixed so I was getting the total RTTM for 1 and -1 and i was betting for the opposite. If the 0.4 for example was for 1 i was betting -1 to stop that ...
I will check with your three series!!!
Thank you