Baccarat New-ish to baccarat, trying to tune my strategy(ies)

Hey all, I discovered baccarat about 2 - 3 months ago and I really enjoy it.

In January, I ran $100 up to $1500 and cashed out (my casino has an app, so I can cash out and go pick up in person without any issues). I started off with following the leader, betting 5 units, then if I won, bet 4, then 3. If the streak continued, I would start again at 5, and if I lost, I would chase the winner and start the bet back at 5.

On a choppy board, this is clearly a losing strategy. I switched it up to Martingale, starting with $1, and would play the chop (i.e., if I bet player and lost, I'd bet player up to 2 more times before switching).

Then when I realized that strategy only worked a short period of time, and it was impossible to predict patterns, I discovered the PBPPBB strategy and that worked great. Until the beginning of this month and I basically donated all of January's winnings back.

I took 2 weeks off, and last week I popped in $50 just to see what I could do. I decided on sticking with the PBPPBB method, but I tweaked it so I'm chasing less and creating less stressful situation. My tweaks are essentially skipping the first bet (unless there's a run of 3 or more on player), and half the time skipping the first banker bet, depending on if there's a of chopping going on or if there's a lot of drops.

My bets now start at $2 or $3, depending on when I start in the bet pattern, and then add an additional $2 on the last 2 banker bets to cover commission.

That said, I've taken a hit on 40% of the shoes I've played in by the pattern ending and still not hitting, or not feeling confident and not betting the next step of the progression. Each time, I've been able to recover (except the time I took a hit on a hand in the late 30's, but I still came back a fair way and still ended the shoe positive, even if it were only $4). I also stop around hand 58, even though the shoe typically goes to 68-73 often usually because I end up chasing a lot more, or I won't have time to recover any loss.

All that being said, I turned the last $50 into currently over $1200 in the last 4 days. I'll be cashing out $1000 this week and continue on in my baccarat journey with the remainder.

My question is, what can I do to tighten up my methods? When should I increase my starting unit from $1 to $5? I know I have to be comfortable with the increased bet size and have enough to cover a losing run or 3. but when is it considered being too cautious?

What methods do ya'll use that works out well for you, and what are you bets like? I'm heading to a casino in a few weeks that has a $25 min bet (the ones around here are min $100), and even $25 feels a bit overwhelming, even moreso Martingale'ing.

 

Try this .Go to the casino throw 100 on banker . If it wins go home . Do the same thing every day win or lose .Do this forever and you will lose 1.06% of your money Enjoy !!

 

It sounds like you have a strategy that is working for you, so if it works the continue to play that way.

The problem with most gamblers is that they don't have a proper bankroll. If your going to a casino with $25 dollar min, then you need after enough bullets to be able to recover if your wrong.

Your best bet is to do what Jerry Bell said, just wait until you get a feeling and bet on Banker. If you win then just leave.

I would suggest you keep playing on your online casino since your winning.

 

I can't tell if you're serious or being funny, but I've started putting my initial bet on banker. Works about half the time so far lol.

I got up to $1500, then took a significant loss over the next few shoes. I ended up getting back up to around $750, so I cashed out $500, then earlier today I got down to $80, but was able to make it back up to $550 and cashed out another $300.

I've only played baccarat in person at the casino once (and it was still digital, but the dealer was in front of everyone and someone hand shuffled each shoe), and while I was doing okay with a $100 buyin, the $5 min bet made my strategy very dangerous of losing it all quickly. I ended up buying in a total of $300 that day, and cashing out at $625.

With the significant loss the other day, I've learned to handle losses a bit better and not get tilted/keep chasing after a certain amount. I've also learned how to read the board better.

Ah what a game. Going to pick up my winnings and take a few days off.

 

I ended up playing a little more last night, cashed out for another $300 and left $100 in my account.

Went to play this afternoon and the app is having issues. The video doesn't load unless you reload the app, and now I'm getting disconnected because they suspect I'm using a tool, which I'm not. After I verify myself, I can keep playing. This sometimes happens when I have a bet placed and others when I don't, and it's a local casino based app so I don't think there's anything nefarious going on. I believe it's because I log out, then 20 mins later log back in to catch a new shoe, stay on for 10-15 mins, and repeat until a new shoe comes. I waited a few hours and hopped in no problem, placed a bet, then booted (the bet was returned, as I would've lost $5 instead). I finished off where I normally play to (hand 35-38), and logged off. Maybe tomorrow I won't get booted.

The reason why I don't switch tables is because there's only 1 table. I think Fanduel is limited due to the casino's restrictions on other entities gambling in this state, and the dealers on the app must be located in the state to deal for them.

Up $32, so new balance is $132

 

I ended up cashing out $500 before I went to Atlantic City last weekend. Since I was up from our AC trip, I loaded $100 on Wednesday into the app, and ended up busting. I was betting more than I should have and in general playing very loose.

Loaded up another $100 on Thursday and ran it up to $200.

Friday comes and I can’t place a bet on the live table. Turns out there’s an issue and nobody can place bets, and has been down all weekend. Instead, I went to the video bac instead. As of a little bit ago, I’m at $650.

I haven’t been playing any specific pattern and have been just going with how the board appears to be playing. I’ve limited my chasing to 3 martingales and flat betting up to 2 more times before restarting (basically $1, $2, $5, then $5 until I lose 2 more times or recover). Sometimes I’ll start with $3, $6, then $10 if I’m feeling lucky. Most times I hit by the third bet, and only once so far have I had to reset due to 5 losses.

My guessing game has been good this weekend

 

Ran it up to $800, cashed out $600, and up to $250.

I’m on a good streak. Almost wish I had the balls to toss in $1k and increase my base bet to $5 or $10.

 

Brought the $200 up to $900 last night and cashed out.

Free spin Friday - won $2 on free spins, currently at $75 from bac.

Cashout profits this week: $1300, total $1500 ($200 buyin).

 

Lots of people have that problem. It's hard to leave your comfort zone. Bet size is always going to be a function of your bankroll. Rule of thumb is to have 3 bankrolls lifetime. Once you double 1/3 of your bank you could divide again by 3 and use a new unit based on 3 new banks. There are other ways to do it. Maybe just use a % of your bank so your base can go up as you win and down as you lose. Problem with that is uou need pretty big swings to change the base bets.

Good luck

 

That's a pretty good idea. When I go pick up my cash from the casino tomorrow (well, later today), I'm going to sit and play the stadium baccarat tables (the dealer is right in front of you, hand shuffled shoe). Minimum is $5, so we'll see how it goes. I played $20 and $25 min tables in Atlantic City a few weeks back and did okay, but I only did very short sessions - like < 10 hands as I only bought in for $200.

 

Went to go pickup my cash this afternoon and sat at the stadium bac terminal. Bought in for $300, $5 min bet, cashed out 10ish mins later for $400. After that, I sat at a $15 min blackjack table (6/5 blackjack payout, but I didn’t want to play $100 hands). Bought in for $200, cashed out with $265 and called it a day at the casino, so about a 33% profit on what I was willing to risk.

 

Decided to toss $100 onto the app and see if I could get on a hot streak with my board reading.... and that ended fairly quickly. I cracked open excel and did a compound interest of 10% on $100 to see how long it would take to get to $1,000,000 just for grins. I then adjusted it to reach $1M after 180 compounds - thinking each compound would be a day or session. 5.25% doesn't seem like an unreasonable achievement, with a min bet suggestion of 1.25%.

I loaded up another $100, and on the first bet, new shoe, bet banker. I didn't realize my initial bet was set to a $25 chip (forgot that it saves the last chip used even after you leave the table/app), and lost, so instantly down to $75. The road to $105.25 felt like an instant losing battle. I decided to grind it out and switched from my "instincts" and board read strategy to the PBPPBB strat. Next bet was a $2 on banker, it hit, and some relief set in, and I ended up getting to the goal after 40 hands or so.

Since then, I've been able to reach the goal for the next 37 shoes/sessions (currently on 38). Also, about 12 shoes/sessions back, I adjusted the interest rate. Since I was consistently getting an extra $1-3, it shot the 180 mark at $1.5M. Then, before I went to bed, I decided to be more realistic about it, since the bets are increasing to very large sums, which would be life changing to many ($25k+), and decided to set the rate that would match what I have left on my mortgage ($150k). The new rate is set to 3.78% and gets adjusted down as I progress if the target balance exceeds the goal.

My experience so far:
My last strategies busted me twice ($200 last weekend, but that was 100% profits after I cashed out a 300% profit, so I wasn't too bummed), so I reverted back to PBPPBB as mentioned earlier. My bets ranged between $1 and $2 initial, doing a Martingale progression. I know, it's a losing strategy in the long run, and I have been burned by it, but it's the fastest way to hit the goal (and the fastest on losing it all). As the min bet suggestion went up, I kept getting nervous as even though I've been betting that ratio previously, it adds up faster and less chance of recovery using the Martingale. Because of that, I I kept my bets still at $1 to $2, depending how I was feeling about the shoe and how close I was to meeting my goal, but in the Martingale process, I would add $1 every other time to reach the min bet while on a losing streak.

I tried a few other strategies out there (forget the name of one, but I believe it's popular in Italy with a very aggressive positive progression betting strat). That one I tried twice, and was successfully very quickly the first time, and the second time it was a rollercoaster. I made it in profit, but barely, so I did another session with PBPPBB to hit the "session goal".

I also tried a few flat betting strategies, and it was tough. I've tried d'Alembert betting progression, but it requires a streaky board, and those aren't always happening.

So after a few tests, the PBPPBB still feels like a favorite to me, so I kept with it. One shoe I caught the dreaded pattern that busts it (BPBBPP). My bankroll was in the mid $500's and I was only $2 away from reaching the goal. I decided from the initial bet to just do a standard Martingale and only increase a few $$ on the last 2 banker bets to cover the commission and break even at that point. Well, that wiped out the last 20 sessions. I made a decision to make 1 final bet. If I lost, I would be at around $200, and I would be okay with that (I honestly have zero issues of breaking even, regardless of game), and start again the next day. I restarted the pattern, back to Player, on a very choppy and pairing board. It hit, and because I added a few $$ on the banker bets, I was 3/4 of the way to the next goal. I logged the session and took a break.

Now I'm nearing the $800 bankroll, and suggested min bets are $9. Because of that, I've capped it to $4 and $5 initial bets, which will be around 25% to 50% of the bankroll on a bad pattern (actually, a bit more). I still start most bets either at $3 and $4, and increment on banker bets only by $1. This softens the cushion a smidge, but not much. Logic says that I shouldn't be apprehensive about increasing my bets, but all it takes is a bad pattern to kill a bankroll. The $3-4 bets are becoming more of a "not a big deal" as the bankroll increases, but since I'm not keeping up with the min bet suggestions, it's take 2x to 4x as long to reach the goals, and the longer I stay in a shoe, the more likely I am to hit a losing streak.

My game plan now is if I catch an early player streak (2 in a row), I'll increase by $1 or $2. Once I'm nearing hand 20 and in session profit, I'll start a new shoe and repeat until I reach the session goal. If I lose 4 Martingales in a row, I'll reset the bet to 1.5x the initial bet (while still following the pattern), so $3 becomes $5 and $4 becomes $6, which becomes $150 loss on 8 losses in a row. I reduce once I reach the starting session amount, then I'll start a new shoe. If I lose 4 in a row while on stage 2, it's time for a break and a new shoe.

Once I reach $1,000, I'm going to cash out $800 to recover the initial $200 and then to cover some expenses I paid for out of my cash bankroll this weekend (daycare), then start the progression from $200. That's the goal, anyway.

 

My preferred bankroll is at least 200 times the base unit bet. I don't like PBPPBB because it is fixed pattern and doesn't adapt to the changing shoe conditions. My favorite progression is d'alembert. Looks like you have been winning consistently. Keep it up!

 

Thanks! I mix up the betting progressions, depending if I'm in session profit (and by how much), same with experimenting with side bets/ties now.

After a few sessions over the weekend, I ended up being about 30% down from the max, cashed out $500, left $150 and played some various games over the weekend (craps, blackjack, and bac). The first shoe after the withdrawal I was down to $120ish, and decided to call bac quits for the weekend. I played some craps and blackjack, and ended up busting. No biggie. I was still up overall for the week.

Deposited about half of my bankroll into my savings, then when I got home from work decided to toss $75 in and play some bac.

The first shoe I was just flat betting $1, when up, I'd risk up to a 3x Martingale, and left the shoe with a little over $100 (I think it was like $106 or 107).

Next shoe I decided to play down to $100 on the tie, in $1 bets. I hit 3 ties in a row, and ended up over $150 after the shoe.

The next hour I just ground away at the game, hitting $875 at the peak. I withdrew $700 and ran it back to $230 currently.

A few things I've started doing: If I notice a tie hasn't come out in a while (10+ hands), I'll stop betting on player or banker (provided I'm in session profit) if I hit a win, and do a few bets on tie (the number varies, typically I'll either do the nearest $10 or the nearest $5, so if I'm at $178, I'll go as far as 8 bets on the tie, and if I'm at $171, I'll go to $165). I've been lucky and hit a few times early on, once 2 in a row. Same with the pairs - if I notice a drought with pairs, I'll place $1 here and there. I think I only placed 5 bets, hit 2 times (once was a player pair and any pair bonus).

I've been debating on recording some of these sessions and making a youtube channel out of it, but I'm not sure if anyone would really care about narration over a bac table (live or digital).

 

You might as well give it a try. There are dozens (hundreds?) there already tossing dice and playing WOO simulators. This might be an avenue to showcase your bac simulator.[/QUOTE]

 

That's fair.

Ended last night with $496, hit $603 this afternoon and cashed out another $400, leaving me with $203.

After a quick session on a new shoe, I bet 3 ties (lost), ran it just over my goal ($220 was the goal, I had $221). I took the last $1 and did my new end of shoe ritual if I'm up: took the $1 and bet, won. Pressed again, won. On a third press, I'll leave the shoe, and if I lose in any regard from that $1/1 unit bet, I leave the shoe. So far I'm 2/3 on it.

This run off $75 has netted me $1320 so far, with $1100 cashed out.

 

And with that, busted on the $220

Win some, lose some. I'm okay with the bust since I'm up quite a bit. Maybe I'll try again over the weekend or next week.

 

I put $100 in over the weekend to play some craps. I got up to $130, but then lost it all. Still a fun game, and took all weekend to lose it, so I'm not broken up over it. I wanted to take a break from bac, but after responding to the counting thread, I remembered the "Bead Road Magic" strategy, and decided to toss $25 in to see how well I could do.

Ran it up to $31, then after a losing streak ended up with $27, continued on, ran it up to $58, then dropped back down to $52, and now I'm currently at $81.

 

Played for about 2 hours while watching a movie, up to $300 now.

 

@opiate, did you ever run a sim on Oscar's Grind betting only on banker?