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Roulette How to win this absolute win/loss ratio...?

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by beat-the-wheel, Feb 28, 2015.

  1. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    Hi EVERYONE...
    and due respect to my Guru.
    ====================


    If in next 20 bet ,U will to have 12losses, and 8win permutation, how are u going to win, or win huge?

    eg.
    Say, in a bag There are 12 BLACK marbles, and 8 RED marbles,[BLACK=lose, RED=win].

    You will take out each marble, and NOT return the marble back into the bag, thus u will win absolute 8times for every 20bet season, in every possible permutation of 8win in 20bet.

    How are u going to win , or win huge?
    So that if u lose A SEASON, u will recoup the losses, in the next few winning season.
    ============

    ONE of the strategy is to wait, wait for what?

    Since u know beforehand that u will win absolute 8 times, the safest bet, is to avoid betting, and wait for the first 10 bet, to see how the result.

    If the first 10 bet, there's only say, only 3 win, then the next 10 bet will have 5 ABSOLUTE WIN!
    Then u simple go for the killing...

    ANY SUGGESTION...?
     
  2. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    If there are 8 wins for sure in the bag of 20 decisions (having 8 wins and 12 losses), use simple labouchere to start with and if you still have to get 2 or more wins and max 10 spins are left, use a martingale further and win for sure.
    Solving such puzzles are very easy since we have a very limited permutations and combinations with 8 wins and 20 spins but in real game, you can face 20 spins with not even a single win. That can happen any moment and no MM meant to face 8/12 wins/losses will work there.
     
  3. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    Hi Everyone,
    and due respect to my Guru.

    Dear Albalaha,
    Thank You Sir, for your reply.

    I cant agree more, when U say,

    "you can face 20 spins with not even a single win. That can happen any moment and no MM meant to face 8/12 wins/losses will work there."

    Of course that another very interesting topic of what could happen, but I think not many people in the world really understand the randomness virtual limit! And try to take advantage of that!
    ==============


    I try very hard to grasp what U mean, when U say,

    "If there are 8 wins for sure in the bag of 20 decisions (having 8 wins and 12 losses), use simple labouchere to start with and if you still have to get 2 or more wins and max 10 spins are left, use a martingale further and win for sure.
    Solving such puzzles are very easy since we have a very limited permutations and combinations with 8 wins and 20 spins..."
    =============

    I try your idea, to start a simple Labby, starting with 1.
    betting a hypothethecal w/l.

    1st bet=1=-1=-1
    2=11=-2=-3
    3=112=-3=-6
    4=1123=-4=-10
    5=11234=-5=-15
    6=112345=-6=-21
    7=1123456=-7=-28
    8w=11234567=+8=-20
    9w=123456=+7 =-13
    10=2345 =-7 =-20 [need 2 more win]

    11=23457=bet marthy=9=-9=-29
    12=-18 =-47
    13w=+36=-11
    14w=+72=+61 [stop at 1st win]
    15w=+144
    16=-288
    17w=+576
    18w=+1152
    19=-2304
    20=-4608

    If I am wrong, May U please show an example?
    Thanks in advance.

    ==========
    Actually I try to figure out how to win HUGE, if we could be sure that after a "simple VL stratagy", we could face >2/3 probability, to strike , above or below average win/lose ratio in next 20bet.

    ie. after a simple VL startegy. say 5w/20bet. We bet the next 20 bet...

    BUT....

    we only bet when the first 10 bet has "very few win".
    ie...less than 3 win.

    say, we only bet the second 10bet, when first 10 bet has only 2 win.

    1lose =
    2lose =
    3lose =
    4win =
    5lose =
    6win =
    7lose =
    8lose =
    9lose =
    10lose =
    first 10bet has ONLY 2 win! Thus we expect next 10 will have "more" win.

    11= -1=-1
    12= -2=-3
    13w= 4=1
    14w= 8=9
    15w=16=25
    16=-32= -7
    17w=64= 57 [may stop bet, as 7win]
    18w=128=185[may stop bet, as 8win]
    19=-256=lose
    20=-512=lose
    here we deduced that next 20bet [after a 5w/20], WITHOUT A SINGLE WIN, or with only 2 to 3 win=highly unlikely.
    ===========
    I may wrong somewhere, or my idea RIDICULOUS, but am gladly open to see others to debate this ideas.

    Thanks in advance.
     
  4. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    I take your example:
    1st bet=1=-1
    2=11=-2
    3=112=-3
    4=1123=-4
    5=11234=-5
    6=112345=-6
    7=1123456=-7
    8w=11234567=+8
    9w=123456=+7
    10=2345 =-7 we continue labby till it wins net profit, we do not let it go, in the middle.

    11=23457=-9
    12=23457 9 =-11
    13w=34579 =+13
    14w= 457 = +12
    15w= 5 +11
    16= 5 5 = -5
    17w=+10 labby end (net profit achieved) and we still have one win left within next 3 spins, so start simple marty to fetch that(won first marty)
    18w=+1(won marty ), 8th win count achieved with a total net profit of 3 units. No more playing further.

    19= No bet
    20= No bet.

    If you still could not figure it, I can let u understand by any 8/20 sample you can put.
    My point is, such riddles won't help anybody do anything in real gambling situation. If we know what is going to happen, for sure, we can easily plan to beat that but nobody can see the future.
     
  5. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    The big flaw in thinking here is the marble comparison.

    In roulette each spin is an independent event. After a spin, the dealer does not prevent the number that just hit ("marble") from hitting again.
    This means that the same number of numbers remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, and the odds do not change.
     
  6. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

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    It may be fun for you, but it will NOT show profit in the long-run. Will not create advantage over house edge.
     
  7. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Everybody knows this. He is only talking of a hypothetical case. There is no certainty to get any static number of wins and losses in 20 spins. Only hypothesis.
    Oh really!!! Only you know this reality. We are so ignorant.
     

  8. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

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    Oh, maybe I spoke in haste? I was only referring to the statistical logic of the game, the immutable house edge and all.
    Do you feel that the house edge of 5%+ can be overcome with some betting sequence formula?
     
  9. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    House edge just gives a tilt of 2.70%(European roulette) in favor of casino. Although it is a safeguard for a casino at micro level but a player may lose even in absence of any house edge. Have you heard of "no zero roulette"? You can not beat that too, because of the principals of "gamblers' ruin".
     
  10. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    Hi Gentlemen.
    and due respect to my Guru.
    ===========
    Dear Albalaha,
    Thanks U , Sir, for your examples.

    Gentlemen,
    Thanks for replies, and interest.


    After a virtual play with,
    0win/20bet, or only a few wins in 20bets.. etc.

    What the possiblities of win/lose, in next 20bet???
    ========

    from worst to best...

    0win in 20bets
    1win in 20bets
    2/20
    3/20
    4/20
    5/20
    6/20
    7/20
    8/20
    9/20
    10/20
    11/20
    12/20
    13/20
    14/20
    15/20
    16/20
    17/20
    18/20
    19/20
    20/20 best!

    that 21 possibilities in 20bet.
    =============
    It is Impossible to win in 0/20.

    As I take a little below average, thus 8win/20win...
    and/or 7/20.
    ==================

    6/20,and 5/20
    are some permutation that regarded as HARD to win

    [ok,ok,ok, I do understand that 0win,1,2,3,4,5 win in 20 bet did happen before...but,but, that another topic, understanding the limit theory, only a few in this world understand that fact.]
    =========

    9/20 and ABOVE are regarded as EASY to win.

    If U still scratching your head, I mean HOW to win huge if U have great confident that the next 20 bets will have 8 win, 7win, or 6 win.

    It is to win HUGE, and LOSE huge TOO!

    BUT u could recoup losses in the next 2 to 3 session [of 20bets].
    ==============


    ie. AFTER a lowly unlikely few wins in 20bet,

    U wait for next 10 bet to see how many win, if there only 1,2,3win in the first 10bets,
    then bet the next 10 with confident that next 10bets will have 7,6,5 wins!

    In the worst scenario, u will lose...ALL



    thanks ...
     
  11. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    Maybe you need to read "Regression towards mean" and simulate a large data to understand this along with how to calculate probability of happening or non-happening of any win:loss situation.
     
  12. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

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    Who is your Guru, by the way? I have a Guru, also.
     
  13. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Virtual play? Sounds like gambler's fallacy.

    If it's fun, I suppose no harm.
     
  14. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

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    No harm until someone loses serious money while playing deluded that they have a winning system.
     

  15. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Zen,

    I'm guessing that you don't see roulette as an AP opportunity?
     
  16. beat-the-wheel

    beat-the-wheel Member Founding Member

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    My Guru is one of few people in this planet, who understand perfectly the Randomness Behavior, Virtual Limit of betting, fallacies,
    and most importantly, how to WIN the money from the casinos, year in, year out...

    He a native in a land of beautiful songs and dances, where u see most handsome men and beautiful ladies .

    BTW... Who your Guru?
     
  17. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

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    Well ...there's wheel-ball trajectory timing?
    What else? Faulty wheel location?
    There are illegal/cheating methods, post posting and the like?

    But no, I do not believe that betting sequences create AP opportunity.
    AP ops require fundamental reversal of house edge and can be proven by valid simulation and/or 'real' math proofs that do not violate Bayes Theorem.

    Yes/no?
     
  18. zengrifter

    zengrifter Member Lineage to Founders

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    Oh, I thought you meant a real spiritual master-type Guru.
    Mine, since the mid-70s, is Adi Da Samraj
     
  19. albalaha

    albalaha Active Member Founding Member

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    I did not get the answer of my question. If house edge is the only evil that makes us lose, can you tell any strategy that will beat no house edge roulette (say, if payout improves from 1:35 to 1:36 or 0 being removed)?
    People are busy in rhetoric talks like "house edge is the soul of gambling" and nobody cares to understand the real reason of loss in a random game. We lose mainly because of uncertainties that it can offer temporarily and those cases come without any prior notice or signal. If you sit on gambling chair and start placing your bets and get 20 losses to begin with, most probably you will come home empty handed. Those players who plays with other strategies lose at other outcomes.
     
  20. ddarko

    ddarko Member Founding Member

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    @ Zen I will keep it simple, beat-the-wheel 's "guru" is albalaha.........
     

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