Roulette The "fallacy" of "Gambler's Fallacy"

In my understanding this statement has always been the absolute essence of the gambler's fallacy.

 

If that's the case (which it isn't) then "If at first you don't succeed - try, try again" is also a fallacy. lol
If something is "impossible" and you continue to try and continue to fail - then yes, it would be a waste of
time. It's not impossible with random - so that comment doesn't apply.
Imagine we're standing by the road and we're betting on cars that go past.
You're betting that a red car goes by - I'll be the house.
Do you think that NO red car is ever going to go past ? That's absurd.
If you use a progression on your bet, eventually you will win.
You could also win 10 times in a row or once every 40 cars - either way you'll win.
To say that a progression on something that isn't 100% doesn't work makes no sense in roulette.
IT'S MORE THAN 1 SPIN ! laughs. Get past this... You're claiming this because the house has a tiny
edge vs payout/odds of winning - so this tiny percentage completely eliminates the possibility
of a player succeeding when they can play until their bet wins using a progression ? lol

 

Fossell, are you sure that you are on 90%?? Your friend drives it at least on two "roads" ;-)

 

Turbo,

So you think you can build a progression that will overcome the house edge huh?


Perhaps you can show us an amount of money/progression that you can multiply times -5.26% and produce a positive outcome?

Not only can a progression not overcome the house edge, it can NOT even make a dent in it!

In math you can not multiply a negative number times a positive one and produce a positive number.

 

Your examples are the best (funny at times).

Ken

 

What happens to your equation if the bet selections are 10% better than the random average? Betting only on the coincidences of the very actively hottest numbers, while they are in a state of being the hottest numbers, can have the effect of throwing the individual spin averages off. How do you magically eliminate an improved bet selection method? Do you just say to yourself that it can't exist and so you can sleep at night? If Turbo can improve his progression through bet selections that are more productive, then the math must be changed. If he can't then he should be able to prove it by running his progression against randomly selected choices. If he gets the same winning results then Snowman is right for once. But I think that Snowball is wrong, once again. I think that Turbo's progression will lose badly if he selects coldest numbers or any random numbers and sticks with them the same way he does with the hottest numbers. I'd like to see a chart for that.

This is a chance to confound the snowblower. What do you say DSAA?

 

From you're point of view you're right, but clearly you are refusing the fact that there is another way to Rome. In all the discussion that is going on for months on this topic and several others I think you are a perfect example of cognitive dissonance.

 

He deserve credit for it. At least its not BS. Its worth reseaching inside it.ofcourse he has done a hard work.

 

I don't think that The Dr. considers any conflicts between two or more ideas.

He never stresses out over his dogmatic obsession with spins being independent. We are just morons to him. He has a superiority complex with a need to display it to the point of being obnoxious.

 

So your point is that nothing can multiply with a negative number and make a positive one ?
And that this explains why progressions don't work...
(Just checking)
It's just more of the "Roulette is one spin" line of thinking.
35 to 1 payout and odds of a single spin being right are 1 in 37 so anything that follows after that
means nothing, it's just another 1 spin added to the last 1 spin. I'm just making sure that I understand
your line of thinking...
because roulette is more than 1 spin, and the "house edge" doesn't change from one spin to the next.
The betting amount does change though with a progression.
So to you - anything I bet X -5.26% means the spin is going to lose and I can't win ?
But people "do" win. So then it's "luck" (which doesn't exist). And some people win ALOT. (very lucky ?)
but no one can really win in your opinion because they will always lose at -5.26% (not the case).
So if people win, yet they can't - what's your explanation without using the word "luck". Grins.
And bet selection means nothing right ? The point of this thread was showing how the "fallacy" is
actually a fallacy. I provided examples, I can do a step-by-step if you want and you can do it
yourself.
I covered in detail how "my" odds of winning are not 1 in 37. Do I have to cover it again ? I hope not.

 

YES.

You can only win or lose on one spin at a time. But that's not my point. Your expectation in the long term is what matters. In roulette your expectation is that you will lose the (total sum of your bets) x (the house edge). Since the house edge is a negative expectation your expected result is a negative expectation. As a matter of fact, over time you can not win or lose an amount that exceeds the house edge in the RANDOM game of roulette, regardless of how much you bet and regardless of the bet selection.

People will win and lose in the short term do to variance. Variance is essentially what you call "luck". Variance is a part of your expectation. However...over time... after enough spins have been played, the house edge has a much larger effect on whether you win or lose than variance. This is easily proven mathematically.

Before continuing onward with the your argument, you need to take some time to read on gambling expectation. A good place for you to start would be the wizardofodds.com and Wiki. Until you can comprehend expectation, you will be lost soul with your mind trapped in the box that is the gambler's fallacy.


The Maze that is the gambler's fallacy.

On live wheel/non random game, bet selection is everything. It's the only way to get the edge over the house. The key is to improve the accuracy of your predictions by exploiting the gaming device.

 

Do you know what the "BEST" advice given to lottery players is ?
You know - the ones who pick 6 or 7 numbers out of 50+ numbers every week or twice a week trying to win...
What do the math experts tell them is the best chance that they have to eventually win...the best possible technique to attempt to win against the absurd odds....

 

**OMG** ........you and I are linked up or something. Guess what I have been doing for the last two hours (lol).
I never quit, I always hang in there, regardless of my INTEREST at the time

Changing the subject.....Guys, as I have said before, why even post or argue your point. That was the old Ken. This advice is to all, even my friend Turbo. It aint worth it. Play how you (everyone) want to play. I almost feel that posting is "kind of" looking for validation. The exception to the rule is a rookie player just looking for some sound advice and not a HG.

Most of the guys on all of the boards I know. Why even post how you play, what for?? Not to mention all the time you just freed up in your personal life.

New to the game? = Ask basic questions. I get that. Everything else? F**k it.

Ken

 

LOL
Our minds are as one... I know what you're thinking.......YIKES

 

Not sure what you mean? But that 90% covers a lot of basics. The last 10% is where the work is.

 

TG started the with a good point, but as usual it becomes a bit of a scuffle ground 'arguing the toss' with the same old arguments. Though some interesting stuff can surface along the way.

 

Why does anyone need validation when they can make Millions with their system if they do it right?

All this time and effort spent on figuring this stuff out and arguing how and that it works, going on and on. Yet they are betting and doing so little with this stuff.

It's the same excuses and stories over and over.
"It's not about the money"
"I don't live close enough to a casino"
"I am too busy"
"I want to milk it for a few hundred a day so the casinos don't catch on"

The last one is absurd, If they didn't want the casinos to catch on they wouldn't be opening their mouth in the fist place. I have played some really good stuff with a REAL mathematical advantage, stuff over 130%, that's long over now and it will probably never come back. Yet I would never post about it and I would only tell a few select people.

If done right there is no way the casinos would catch on even after making Millions.

What's it been 40 years+ since Thorp? And yet, guys are still getting away with card counting to this day and the casino KNOW THATS A REAL THING.

TG is sitting here fucking around with some free online shit. THAT SAYS IT ALL.

 

If you are talking about the ten percent that Turbo has not shared, I suspect I know what it is. I've already hinted at it. I've been in discussion with two people that have corresponded with Turbo in the past 4 or 5 months. I'm working on the first sim for myself that picks hot numbers and goes up on a win in the three step progression. I should have done this months ago. I just needed to get to the bottom of things that can be expected to happen along the way. My basic premise is that hot numbers outperform cold numbers.

 

Noooooo... the top one is explanations and answering questions and the second one is "stories" that can't be verified... but you have fun with that.
It's NOT about the money - is that what runs your life ? Seems so, not mine. I have my own motivations and would you believe money has nothing to do with it whatsoever ? lol - no, you can't imagine that.
I live 30 minutes from a casino - both AC and Parx are about the same distance in opposite directions.
I am not too busy.
I will take my minimal profit and enjoy it thanks. The casino won't catch on - they don't even know my name.
On the other hand - the second part there sounds like a great story. Only a "select few" can verify anything even happened (if it did) and now sadly that's "long over" (convenient) and "will never come back". Sounds like a fish my friend caught once but it broke the line right as he battled it into the boat - damn.... it was THIS big.
But hey, I get it - it's all good...it's frustrating I know - just forget about roulette and try another hobby.
No need to waste your time ""sitting here fucking around on some roulette forum. THAT SAYS IT ALL.""
Sure does.

 

Oh please.... I was talking with the Pope last night and he told me that God loves roulette. There, we are both making up stories lol