Forex Daily Market Analysis from ForexMart

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 7, 2018


The sterling pound had a significant break down as this week started along with some current issues regarding the Brexit. However, the trend for the next day seems crucial. The level below 1.29 is massively supportive according to the longer-term charts, which serves as the bottom of the zone in FX markets. Hence, a break down under that zone will indicate a longer-term sell signal.

On the other hand, a reversal and a rebound would prompt buyers to return and pick up some value. This will further heighten some optimistic news from the United Kingdom which involves Brexit.

The next target for a break down is the 1.2750 region or the 1.25 level eventually. The GBP remains to be difficult to deal with due to a lot of concerns regarding its economy. While volatility can be reliable for the pound/dollar for some time.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 8, 2018


The U.S. dollar slid down against the Japanese yen to rise on Tuesday, although, there is a bit of noise down below 111 that could reverse the situation and appeal to buyers to jump in. Concerns on trade war continue to prevail on the market, which can be viewed as “ground zero” on the headlines. It may not take long before the traders turn around that can be influenced by the headlines going out.

Risk appetite moves along with the pair which should be always kept in mind. It is logical that the trading activity will take place in this area in the next 24 hours but if the price breaks lower than 111, there is a possibility for a break down lower than 111. There is a chance if the price moves down to 110.50 and even further to 110. Moving up, the level of 112 offers a lot of resistance and currently, a return to the recent highs may be my target but it is not necessarily a big move to the north, at least not until the trade war between China and the U.S. is settled. There is a high optimism in trading for short-term and traders should expect for choppiness and range-bound trading that is already common at this time of the year.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 10, 2018

The British currency seesawed during the trading course yesterday while testing the 1.29 region for resistance but, there is no dramatic selloff happened. As of this writing, the GBP/USD is oversold and many professional traders await for a rebound to begin selling again. While retail traders are very good in “chasing the trade” which makes them sell down from that level.

Apparently, there are a lot of problems with Brexit and because of that, people are waiting for the headlines from London especially when it has something to do with the referendum or the consensus with the UK Conservative Party.

Eventually, it seems that the pound/dollar pair would likely reach even lower but traders should not let this to happen because the pair is almost oversold. It should be noted that the level above 1.30 will serve as the resistance. Sooner or later, traders will beat up the sterling pound, however, there are scarcely any of them who are currently selling. It is suggested to move near the 1.2750 zone for the next couple of weeks, but the unity with the Conservative Party would support this market to grow.

It looks like that the weakening of the pound will nearly end because of the few people who remained short in this market and nobody wants to suffer from a rapid price decline. While selling rallies in the near-term on signs of exhaustion is expected to remain effective.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 13, 2018


The British pound was priced at 1.2750 in the early session with the support at 1.27. Currently, the pair is traded at 1.2763, dropped by 0.07% on the day, implying signs of consolidation. In the previous week, the pair returned full scale due to risk aversion as a precaution to the Turkish banking sector in the emerging market. Meanwhile, traders are moving back to the US dollar with risk flows at a full reverse while the British pound is presumed to continue with a strong bearish sentiment against the greenback after the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney & Trade Secretary Liam Fox gave an indication of a no-deal Brexit possibility.


In the technical perspective, there are hints of a continuous bearish approach despite the fundamental news hinting on a bullish pullback possibility. For a third succeeding week, the pair has been on a bearish decline with no signs that could indicate downward exhaustion and technical indicators of strong downward slopes. The RSI is around 24 at the moment. On the 4-hour chart, the pair moves bearishly with the 20-SMA directed downward at 1.2865 and the momentum indicators just entered a modest upward correction. The technical levels on the resistance level will be at 1.2795, 1.2830, 1.2865 and the support level will be at 1.2720, 1.2680, 1.2645.

 

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis: August 14, 2018


The trepidation of European banks has pushed the euro down over the past two days. Some reports reveal that a pastor has been detained in Turkey that could appease the tension between Turkey and the United States. Consequently, this pushed the Turkish lira and eased the pressure and fear in European banks. In these considerations, a resumption higher is likely to take place. Thus, there are technicals that should be monitored such as the level of 1.1475 which was an important supply level previously. Of course, there is the level of 1.15 and beyond that. Needless to say, there is a bit sign of pause and any signs of a problem could cause a rollover of the pair.

One concern is the little information about the Turkish economy that puts them in the spotlight globally. Hence, the market is likely to be anxious, siding on a safe side over anything else. If the price breaks above the level of 1.154, the price will probably continue to rally substantially. Later on, a short-term rally could be reversed with the choice of wrong words.

 

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: August 15, 2018


The American currency attempted to rally amid trading session on Tuesday, however, the level above ¥111 appears to be very resistive to resume an upward movement. And this does not surprise the market at all since this area had some previous selling. At this moment, the market would likely find enough reason to respond to the current situation of Turkey.

Aside from that, another issue to worry about is the global trade conflicts which involve the United States and China. Eventually, finding a resolution to the current situation will enable the interest rate outlook and interest rate differential of both countries to engage actively in the market. With this, the main focus should be on trade when it comes to the USD/JPY currency pair but when factors involving the USD will ease, there would be a resumption of support. As the market would likely continue to favor this scenario due to increased US interest rates against the difficult status of the Bank of Japan for not being able to imply rate hikes in the future. The ¥110.25 level provides an initial target to the upside, followed by a move towards ¥112 level. A break down from that point, the level below ¥110 should be supported.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 16, 2018


The single European currency slightly edged lower amid trading course on Wednesday, and move lower to the significant level 1.13. It is possible to gain a bit of rebound from that area. Also, some type of selling opportunity is expected to see on rallies and shorting this market will show signs of exhaustion. A lot of concerns remain towards Turkey’s contagion to the EU, which would likely be seen as there is a shortage of US currency around the world.

As expected, the euro was beaten recently which demonstrates occasional value play and look to pick up dips. Traders should wait for a shooting star pattern on the hourly chart and the level above the 1.15 region is the “ceiling” of the market. Moreover, a significant break on top of that zone may consider purchasing this market as shown in the daily chart.

A downward movement can be anticipated in the near future. Based on some technical analysts, the market may reach as low as 1.05 at the end of 2018. The next potential target is 1.13.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 17, 2018

The sterling pound attempted to rally yesterday but had some struggle at the 1.2735 level, an area that reaches up to 1.2750 and considered a major support zone in the longer-term charts. Failure to break above that level indicates a short-term rebound that will engage traders to join. The market uses the 1.27 region as a minor support for the daytime trading but it has low chance to change the general forecast for this market in general. The target is at the area of 1.25 which is regarded as a psychologically significant figure.

A break down beneath the 1.25 zone would likely offer an opportunity to sell or give up the sell-off period. It is believed that most of the Brexit selling had already been taken into account but we should expect for some downward pressure. Nevertheless, an extensive flat can be seen and the further scenario will begin when people would realize that the UK will separate from the EU to have its own empire.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 22, 2018

The single European currency had rallied amid Asian trading yesterday and further break above the significant level 1.15. Nevertheless, the gains were only temporary followed by a pull back to test the region along with the onset of American hours. Moreover, this seems to be a completely impossible breakout which may lead to the thought that Turkey is still the concern of most traders.

It remains a question whether the hammer formation in the previous week indicates a technical rebound or value hunting. It seems hard to answer for now but we consider it more of a technical correction. There is a potential area that extends towards the 1.1550 region, which could open doors to reach the upside effortlessly and touching that zone will make an impressive situation.

As expected, headlines will move the market but traders should keep an eye to the American dollar as it tries to gain strength since the New York will begin the day. With this, the US dollar will certainly strengthen against the EUR/USD pair. While market players remain concerned about the current status of the European Union since the issue continues to linger in the traders’ minds. Take note of the headlines from Turkey because as their news worsens, it would greatly affect the Euro.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 23, 2018

The euro rose higher during the Wednesday session but it may be difficult to reach the level of 1.16. This level may appeal to some value hunters especially close to the level of 1.1570 and the area of 1.15 to be psychologically important. Overall, the market will still worry about the Turkish problem but may be excessively inflated. At the same time, media may overplay the situation given the possibility to repeat another great recession which will quickly attract headlines attention.

The level of 1.15 is significant as of the moment and if the market can hold this level, there is a chance for the price to rise higher. However, if the opposite happens and turns out negatively, it may wise to begin selling the pair. In this case, it would be best to be optimistic but still heedful until the level of 1.1850, which was previously the trading level at the top of the consolidation range. Noise should be anticipated but keeping in mind that other high-frequency trading algorithms in the market.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 24, 2018

The sterling pound prevails over the market on Thursday, while the trading seems difficult because the 1.29 region became slightly resistive. The price action amid the day only emphasized the current volatility that the GBP/USD pair has. In general, the British currency would likely be a huge investment in the longer-term but the nearing end of the Brexit caused further confusion than clarity. Nevertheless, there are rumors that the longer-term profit will begin to jump into the GBP or even try to win over the optimistic news.

This market could probably decline to the 1.2750 region prior seeing some major support. We can see some type of support at the 1.2825 zone but it may take some time before testing such levels. There are forecasts that the sterling could possibly break out to the upside upon gaining some clarity. However, considering the current scenario, it is recommended to deal with some volatility and choppiness.

Traders should not also forget to pay attention to the current and overall status of the US dollar because this is highly expected to reflect on this market. As of this moment, the majority are concerned with global trade which placed some demand in American currency.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 28, 2018


The sterling pound had a significant rally earlier this week. It further breaks above the 1.2850 region and would probably test the 1.29 zone. A move higher near the 1.30 mark is possible but it might be very choppy throughout the process. Buying in the dips can be reliable except when negative factors or general headlines were released from the UK. It seems that the British currency is undervalued by which different kinds of investment will attempt to arrange a deal with the European Union.

Upon having an arrangement, the pound will breakout in value because we can find some certainty in the market. Continuing to buy the dips is not ruled out yet and the 1.2750 mark is expected to the “floor” in the market but it might reverse the whole thing eventually. Market players should anticipate volatile sessions as large money flows in an out. At this moment, there is a higher risk to the move upside rather than down. Moreover, traders might need to deal with occasional pull back and negativity in the market.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 29, 2018

The single European currency broke on top of the 1.17 mark which indicates being active again. It seems that the overall market sentiment will keep on improving, which would likely support the euro or negatively affect the US currency because traders are expected to overcome the risk appetite curve to other markets and currencies.

The current situation shows the possible testing of the previous highs at the zone 1.18 that serves as the ceiling of the consolidation. A break above that region will pave the way towards a higher level, as the initial target highlighted the 1.20 level.

In case that players will pull back, plenty of support levels below are predicted to keep this market buoyed. We can find support at the levels 1.1650, 1.16 and 1.15, which is expected to be the “floor” of the market. It is suggested to continue buying the dips to play with this market, while traders may become more assertive above the 1.20 region.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: August 30, 2018


The sterling pound moved back and forth in the past few days and it is expected that the situation will remain unchanged, as the Brexit will continue to bring uncertainty to the British pound. Nevertheless, there is plenty of support in the past and it is predicted to keep going since there are only a few traders who opt to sell the British currency.

In the next couple of months, the Brexit agreement will be finalized which means that we’ll be seeing some certainty. With this, there are more players who would want to buy the pound. Moreover, the “smart-money” would likely get into the GBP to help the money on work since there is a lot of value in the longer-term charts.

As of this writing, the 1.28 region is projected to provide support with the possibility to go even lower. While the 1.2750 region appears to be more supportive and it may take some time before buyers return the market. The major target for resistance is the 1.30 region, which appears really attractive to traders. Considering the entire scenario, we need some optimistic news about the global commerce, about the United Kingdom or anything that could help push the market upwards to drive away traders from the greenbacks.

 

Your interesting market analysis is very much appreciated .


Nathan Detroit

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: August 31, 2018

The euro/dollar currency pair pulled back during the first half of trading yesterday, however, find some support around the 1.1650 region as well as in the level of 1.16. As of this writing, the market is expected to rally for some time since the trade deal will be signed in North America and may show a “risk on” sentiment in the market generally. On the other hand, Turkey’s issue was reduced in priority since people do not really fear about it, and this further helped the single European currency to have some “relief rally”.

The market became uptight lately, but there is a tendency to move above the 1.18 zone, which is the top of a significant consolidation region. A break on top of that area or near the 1.1850 would likely help the Euro to reach above the 1.20 mark, an area that is expected to be attractive since it appears important on the longer-term charts.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 4, 2018


The sterling pound breaks lower amid trading course on Monday as the week started, and showed further concern about the Brexit’s progress. Such headlines will keep moving this market immoderately and a break down under the 1.2850 region will push the British currency towards 1.28 zone eventually, which was a very supportive level in the past. Below that zone is the 1.2750 mark which is a crucial area in the longer-term charts.

It is expected that the market will have a reversal and indicate signs of support which will open doors to pick up value since the pound was oversold for a long period of time. Nevertheless, we need some optimistic news as the Brexit continue to drive this market higher. Ultimately, we can find some resolution but at this moment, we might encounter a lot of repulsive volatility brought by such news.

 

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: September 5, 2018

The single European currency had broken down during Tuesday’s trading course and will further move downwards near the 1.1550 zone. However, there are speculations about the possible skepticism that might influence this market, so traders should be careful when they opt to put a lot of money to work. A break down under the 1.15 region would likely impose aggressiveness and on the other side, we can experience volatility.

Market participants should focus on the greenbacks in general, as well as issues from all over the globe. As long as there are issues that fear out the public, the favor will still be on the American currency. The US dollar will continue to edge higher and the value of the euro will be drag lower, and such events that are driven by news should be focused for now.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 6, 2018


The British currency has broken to the upside in response to the statement from Germany and the United Kingdom about their weakening stance towards hardline issues of Brexit. With this, we can expect that Brexit will happen sooner or later. Nevertheless, this move was seen last week and players should be very cautious in getting into this market. Hence, there are a lot of retail traders who would likely bet their full account for this move. Unfortunately, they will be extremely be mistaken about this, because prior to any confirmation, it is possible that a statement will be issued to reverse this downwards.

On the other hand, there is a potential change in the trend of the sterling pound that has high possibility to come upon breaking above the descending trendline around 1.3033 region. This could be a tricky candle to use in trading and the best possible way to trade this is by purchasing short-term dips.

 

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: September 7, 2018


The sterling pound slightly rallied amid the day on Thursday, however, it reverted as the Americans came into play. It seems that the markets know how to take a lot of risks since the jobs figure would likely break this market. Aside from that, the issue of softening stance between the Germans and the British regarding the talks has been turned down by the Germans. The market closed at the same level of the gap and it appears to provide resistance earlier this week. Eventually, there is possible for a downwards movement in the near term but we can see a significant support around the 1.29 region. Moreover, there are also forecasts that states the potential significant amount of uncertainty in the market. With this, the market may edged lower just like what happened in the previous week.