Roulette Mathematical Averages

....If the odds in a given situation are one-in-four that one will pick correctly; pay attention to the fact that the expectation of consecutive misses is 4 to support the one-in-four picks.....therefore, pay attention to the fact that all one has to do is view the target but not commit at that first miss, leaves us at 3 misses & 4 to X without pairing or picking correctly successively; but when we do subsequently pick correctly according to the odds we are left with a 25% advantage in the game.....I can prove it!

 

Variance. You want to allow for deviations away from the large number value of the probability. In the short term of say 20 spins you will not get a symmetrical sequence of events that always gives you a 25% advantage. If it did Roulette would have died long ago.

 

.....there is of course the eternal variance.....however, what game are you playing & what is the percentage of the game do you actually have in play?....I can make a comparison here taken from actual certified by the casino spins: in 24/7 x 31 days: my biggest variance with 2.70% @ work was 5.7 hits off the math average.....I'm reminded of other story's about sleeper numbers going -10.0 & upwards to -20.0...now, the wheel rolls along at a calculable average rate: we can track it; chart it; predict the future based upon mathematical probability averages certain to occur. I am in fact in a long term exercise that returns an advantage of +25% on your money.....whats wrong with that? I am of course a flat bettor...

 

.....Nobody wants to talk to me.....I do in fact have the true Holy Grail.....anybody?....

 

No you can't. You're talking gambler's fallacy nonsense.

 

What do you mean?
To wait for something to miss x spins and then start betting it?

 

Take it to the casino.

 

.....do the math.....what is your expectation of consecutive losses in a one-in-four game to pick correctly your allotted once in four picks.....

 

Juneau,

It doesn't matter how many misses you wait for, the odds do not change from one spin to the next based on how many times a bet has missed!
The reason is the number of pockets on the wheel determines the odds of a number winning, not the numbers that have hit previously.
If you don't believe me, then feel free to count the number of pockets that remain on the wheel after each consecutive miss.

 

.....you are correct that the odds do not change from one spin to the next.......explain please how then one comes up with their entitled 1/4th or 25% of the action if the misses do not count: i.e. one X per three misses over all; and, where you show at least one miss, one will show an average of four misses: Do the math....if one can ignore the first miss one is still at 3 misses and 4 to X for one's mathematical entitlement but does so without pairing or picking correctly successively according to the odds; but when does subsequenty pick correctly according to the odds one is 25% in advantage over the game....prove me wrong.....

 

Juneau,

You need to be more specific. I'm not sure what it is that you're trying to say. Can you provide an example?

 

.....very well.....we shall take this step by step.....that you will be agreeable ALL ALONG THE WAY is assured.....I will be offering irrefutable guarantees....stay tuned.....

 

what will it be when juneau will discover the Martingale??!

 

I test this idea and get pretty good results ...
For example, clustering EC into groups of two.

BB / BB BR RB (RR) Two direct wins and one break even and one with two losses.
RR / RR RB BR (BB)
RB / RB RR BB (BR)
BR / BR BB RR (RB)

300 TRAIL
95 WIN
71 LOSS
TOTAL 166 PLACED BETS WITH 2.66 Z-SCORE

After two loses you wait for a fictive win and start over.

 

Sputnik ,


What MM do you recommend for short term play ?


Thanks .

ND

 

Nathan,

What's the goal? Try to make a lot of money or 100$ ? Second part, how many time do you want to spend at the table? or actually how many spins do you want to play.

Otherwise if there's an edge Kelly Criterion principle that you adapt to your system.

 

-Sharp ,

Winning money ? I am well fixed with my investments. For me casino visits are just a recreation .

This I knew from DAY ONE 37 years ago .


I am very selective in my choice of casinos and their locations : Atlantis ( Bahamas ) Bad Homburg , Casino de Montreal,
Las Vegas and the cluster of casinos in Atlantic City .


You gotta have and demand CLASS.

 

ND I don't recommend the idea - it was just a fun experiment.

But I could need one advice from you ND or Sharptracker.
I can win around twenty attempts in a row using a three-step progression.

And I want to use Up as you win or positive progression with regression.

For example staking

2 2 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 8 now I won 6 units and risk 10

Now I want to operate with casino money and relax and aim to win 20 times in a row or even more during two to three casino visits.
I am staking casino money

1 1 3 and after a win add 1 unit to next wagering
1 2 3 and after a win add 1 unit to next wagering
1 2 4 now I won 9 units and risk 5

Now I could start over

2 2 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 8 now I won 15 units and risk 10

3 3 9 and after a win add 3 units to next wagering
3 6 9 and after a win add 3 units to next wagering
3 6 12 now I won 24 units and risk 15

4 4 12 and after a win add 4 units to next wagering
4 8 12 and after a win add 4 units to next wagering
4 8 16 now I won 36 units and risk 20

Now we can keep pull and press for more - but each beginning of each state you almost lose back everything.
So you wanna take it down at some point and regress again to lock in profits.
The winning strikes don't keep running forever.

For example staking

2 2 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 8 now I won 6 units and risk 10

Regress

1 1 3 and after a win add 1 unit to next wagering
1 2 3 and after a win add 1 unit to next wagering
1 2 4 now I won 9 units and risk 5

Now I could start over

2 2 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 8 now I won 15 units and risk 10

Regress again

1 1 3 and after a win add 1 unit to next wagering
1 2 3 and after a win add 1 unit to next wagering
1 2 4 now I won 18 units and risk 5

And back to the beginning

2 2 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 6 and after a win add 2 units to next wagering
2 4 8 now I won 24 units and risk 10

Cheers​

 

To be brief. What comes into my mind is the Charles Guetting progression .


ND

 

Well, I don't know how to convert Guetting Progression levels into three-step progression levels.
Sound difficult.

I am using the idea with 122 that is 5 units and change it to 113 where you win, break even, and win.
With 122 you win, win and lose one unit.

That is easy to change into Regression Up & Pull using three steps for each level.
But how would someone tackle that with Guetting Progression?