Baccarat In depth discussion of trends in Baccarat

The mass market of Baccarat players uses trends to try to out smart every shoe. What are trends? How can they be useful. If trends are useful, how come people lose? I know these things better because I worked on both sides of the table. The winners are players who can learn the art of ANTICIPATING trends. After a trend occurs its tough to follow through because they might changed or they might not sustained. Many players claimed that they follow trends and when the shoe is choppy, they will take a break. A very true statement BUT talk is cheap, they did not do what they say they will do.

Examine this example: PP BBBB P B PP. Very common in a Baccarat shoe. You will be surprised that a lot of people actually loses 4 hands in a row when this occurs. After no action on first 2 hands ( PP ) comes BBB ( still no action) and bet B and won then bet B again and lost. Because the last time P repeats, therefore bet P and lost again. Next bet is B because the previous B repeats and lost again. NOw you see a 3 chop and follow the chop and bet B and lost again because P repeats. The whole thing will be PP BBBB P B PP but the betting outcome will be - - - - - W L L L L.
If you were to present this patch of outcomes to any person, they will say no way I am losing 4 hands in a row. I would have done this and that and won instead. So do systems sellers. They will come out with something to beat the tester book and claim that it will work.

Think deeper. The edge in Baccarat is slightly over 1% in the house's favor BUT the hold for the game of Baccarat for the House is 14%.

 

Yes I understand completely your point of view and have seen myself how tricky and unpredictable some shoes can be.But the real reason why most people lose at baccarat tables is BETTING TOO OFTEN!!!and betting on a new shoe with absolutely no trend as a guide.In my opinion a successful baccarat player must have extreme patience!!and the ability if necessary to bet only two or three times in an entire shoe.Most people might think this view is ridiculous but believe me it works.Money management is also the key.People often win a few rows then get confident and up there stake to a greedy amount only to lose all the profit.Yes you have to press your bets in baccarat as flat betting will lead to disaster but only when there is a very high chance with a strong trend should it be done.

 

Craps? Have you figured it out yet? Have you figured out how to win with Even Chance bets when that chaos is happening? Your example is chaotic and none repetitive. Anyone that is a good trend hunter would not feed that losing stretch. I suppose you think that this validates your point. And I hope you actually think that it does. I like watching people learn. First the new trend player must be stupid before they can become smart. I'm kind of hoping that you have something smart to say. Why do you think people allow themselves to lose 4 in a row? To me they are stuck on looking at the wrong trend. Chaos is a trend too. All it has to do is continue. Anything that continues is good.

People are not really trend hunters. They are like children that start to draw with crayons. It looks like shit and Mom always says "isn't that beautiful." To me they are blind as a bat. They only see the stand out trends. And they suck at how to bet them when they do see them. And that is why they lose trying to use them.

 

Giz, I haven't figure it out yet. The biggest success that I had is to anticipate trends and if I lose the first bet, I will stop. If the trend becomes a reality, I will have success. The longest streak of wins that I ever have is 18 in a row consecutively and it was fun because everybody was waiting for me to make a bet before they follows.

Anyway, I am done with B and P because I get very undecided about the entry point. Furthermore it seems grinders uses a few trends of their own. That means they will create a few different ways of documenting a particular shoe. Even the casinos is making it easier for the players by displaying 5 ways of presenting a shoe outcomes. The main road, The big eye, The side road, The cockroach and The bead road on the score display.

Right now I am into triggers by flow of card totals regardless of B of P and I track them on 2 shoes simultaneously on those Baccarat consoles. After a trigger appears, I will chart to see whether they are running repeat or against. If the same trigger appears, I will follow the previous outcome of the first trigger. There will be no indecision on my part because they are mechanical. Its not a fixed template though. It is following what is trending on that particular shoe. I uses a 5 step Martingle and only allowed to lose one step (bet ) at one occurrence. My goal is to win 8 units a day. If I lose, I will quit and go back another day but this time I will go for 10 units.

 

All of this "following trends" is pure bullshit. None, and I mean NONE of you, are winners in casinos! That's why you post incessantly non-stop on these forums.

Also, House Edge and Hold are two completely different things and figures.

 

You are a true Baccarat Man. What are the type of player that a casino does not want. The hit-and-run type. They are called Casino Rats. The grinders are caiied Casino Fleas. When a player hit and runs, the casino will not be able to recoup the win OR will have a limited win if the player loses.

I do see patience when a player is ahead. They protect their wins. BUT when a player is behind, he/she cannot sit out more than 3 hands. Even if you have patience, you will find every excuse to make a bet. Your explanation is so true but there is no definite guidelines of when to pull the trigger.

I believe a successful gambler is one that have a fixed time table. They need to stick to things that they can control and let destiny decide things that they cannot control. We need to be ahead in a year, We need to be ahead in a month. We need to be ahead in a week. We cannot control win /lose in a day. We cannot control win/lose in a shoe. We cannot control the outcome of 1 hand. Therefore we need to be a little mechanical so that we can achieve consistency.

 

Thank you for a real in depth report. Your first instinct to stop after a first try loss, or any loss is good. I do the same thing. In EC's like Baccarat you get a loss and that indicates that the trend has either ended or that it is just part of an 80% dominance in the strong side of the trend and will in fact continue. Just two things that can happen after a loss.

You go after the eight net wins from a negative progression method. I use an Up & Pull method to get 7 net wins. I often do it in increments of one or two wins at a time. I'm good at hunting two correct guesses at a time. Not that hard when you are close to 50/50 on each guess anyway. I don't use triggers. I look for repeating patterns of singles, doubles, triples, and dominance. I get it all when Red streaks for 16 times in a row. I'm already gone by then. It's just a matter of not feeding the stupid side of trends where the slow grind down can fool the average player. Like I said somewhere. People try trends and then give up on them as not working. You can't force a trend to work by wishful thinking. It works or it does not work. You have to be just a little smarter than dumb in order to know that. I guess people want it to work all the time or it's not fair. Now that is funny, E- for Equality.

 

Okay, explain this to me. You go to a roulette table. You refuse to look at the scoreboard. You bet RED and won, You bet RED again and you win. You ask yourself is RED going to repeat OR is BLACK overdue? Right there you are talking trends. You are not a Human if you don't think trends. Only a robot which are programmed to chose randomly will bet randomly.
I am saying if the house edge is 1+% over the players and the hold is 14%, that shows that the edge is NOT the reason why people lose.

 

jbs, So what works for you, while you too are here posting? PKB Are you an advantage player or a mathNazi? Anyone know what this guy does? Is he a deplorable cynic? Does he just plop himself down and pontificate his ignorance?

 

A successful Roulette Anti trend bettor would turn old and grey by waiting for a chance at a baccarat table to go anti trend .

 

I'm curious; would you define what you mean by trend? It may sound like a dumb question, but is the chop a trend to you or something like PBBPBBPBBPBB?

 

Craps,

Thanks for having posted this informative subject .


ND

 

''The winners are players who can learn the art of ANTICIPATING trends.'' craps. That's a shrewd observation right there!

P
P
B
B (win)
B
B
P (win)
B (win)
P (loss)
P (win)

I anticipated three different characteristics as the hands were coming out.

 

Would you please elaborate as to why you anticipated those results?

 

I will say one thing. It's easy to win when Banker is streaking or Player for that matter. However, you need to develop a framework for that bag of trash that looks at first glance undecipherable. There is a reason my casino has a Bank bonus where the player with the most consecutive Banker hands wins a juicy bonus at the end of the week. Baccarat in some ways is not too dissimilar to Roulette in the sense that you can have a disproportionate occurrence of events. It just takes a bit of thought as to how you are going to be able to recognize when it happens. But trust me it happens because the casinos rely on it to make far more than just the house edge. I am moving house this week and so just chilling out a bit, I will post some more specifics when I have a bit more time.

 

The light was green as I approached. Knowing it was a short light and I was x distance I ANTICIPATED it would soon turn red so I slowed my vehicle. It did. Amazing! ONE CANNOT ANTICIPATE A TREND! One can, however, GUESS! and bet or not, and stay or leave.[/QUOTE]

Yes and No. If there was no HA then all would break even on an EC game as long as they had enough bankroll and played long enough. They wouldn't win either - in theory. In essence people lose because they raise their bet after a loss and run out of funds or hit the table max. If they flat bet then they would, indeed, lose to the HA.

 

I would classify a trend to be 4 and over of the same side to be a trend generally

 

Thank you Mr.you like me understand the baccarat tables and have dealt with the blows and the highs.Yes your correct in saying when is exactly the time to walk???.And truly thats down to pure gut instinct.its true to say don't push your luck!!!!!in anything!!!!.But a person could make a fortune or lose a bit???it's truly the worst think for any gambler to decide on!!.

 

Bankroll required at a $ 20 Minimum Bacc Table ?



ND