Baccarat In depth discussion of trends in Baccarat

I will need $800-$1000 with minimum bet $20 to $100 maximum.

 

$ 20 Minimum Baccarat table :

Comfortable bankroll $ 1, 800.--

Acceptable $ 1. 200 .--

 

Agreed. A trend is any combination of decisions you want it to be. The defining characteristic is its repetitiveness. We like to identify simple common patterns and when they repeat we call them a trend. As a practical matter there is little point in looking for lengthy patterns of more than four since there are much less of them. We can only identify trends in the past AFTER they ocurr. We could see something like p BB p BB and decide that's a trend. Very common occurrence. I've seen this particular pattern go about 30 decisions before stopping (about 25 years ago! LOL).

There is no way we can determine whether our chosen pattern will continue or not. We can bet it will or it won't! That's why we see so many betting against a long repeat. We all have it in our mind that it will stop because . . . it WILL - until it doesn't!

There's a guy who plays a Marty after seeing 6 repeats IAR. He bets there won't be a 7th. Doesn't matter to him the length of the repeats. See? That's a trend as well.

Does this mean one shouldn't bet for a perceived pattern to continue and confirm a trend? No. It just means we cannot predict and we'd better have more to our game than betting and anticipating (guessing) that some occurrence will repeat.

 

I'll pick on Eugene for a bit - nothing personal. He has stated above that after a PP B it is more likely (positive EV) that a B will ocurr. He's correct in that B has a slight advantage over P. But that slight advantage is minuscule that is becomes impractical. Easy to prove the falsehood. One could take a few thousand shoes and search for 4BIAR followed by PBPP and look at the results. I'm pretty sure that there would be as many "(loss)" as wins. Why? It's a random game.

So if this weren't true than the game is not random and also predictable. So if one could predict this "trend" then there certainly must be others - many others and these trends would have been identified long ago by the myriad of programmers who have searched database of thousands of live shoes.

When Eugene comes back he will have the task of explaining why my position is not valid.

 

OK, I'll school you, because you need it badly.

Say you are playing a 50/50 game, an Even Chance game. You see a trend. You place a bet on it to continue. There are only two outcomes that can result in that bet. You will win or you will lose. If you win the first bet then all the following bets can't make you go backwards. Only a first lost bet can make you go backwards. If you lose the first lost bet then the trend is not continuing and the bet strategy event is over. Now mathematically speaking you have a blind chance of winning half of all your guesses. If you lose the second bet of a continuing trend then you go back to zero. So to balance out the losses you must win the second try of a trend. You will only win half of those mathematically. So to win as a player you must rack up a lot of third, fourth, fifth, etc... continuation bets to balance the second try loss effect. So you would be well advised to keep track of your effectiveness while observing the quality of these trends that are speculated on. The math is against you unless you exploit the bigger trends. So you ride it until it dies. You will massacre the casino when you get 20 reds in a row. But you will win most of the days if you stay out of deep loss streaks. You must know what balance means and how to target opportunities that favor the good side of balance. You can also ignore these statistical anomalies and keep your own as a phase an ignorance as a backstop. Most people think that they know something that is true when they have never considered what it is that they objects to so much. I use math and statistics to show me true balance points and I use my experience with trends to show me what temporary advantage means. You deny the existence of temporary advantage. But your decrees don't make those advantages disappear like magic. They just disappear because you can't or won't see them. Course I could be guessing.

 

As far as the length of trends go there are the super perfect trends that last from 15 to 45 spins on a Roulette table. I labeled them "Elegant Patterns." Then there are the swarms of the same characteristic all across the table layout and combined with pet sets and groupings made up from the inside layout. These "global effect" trends last for 30 to 150 spins. My advice to all you (experts?) is to go ahead and continue to ignore them. Now that is a trend worth laughing at. Don't pick up that bag of gold. Ha Ha. How long will this trend last? Attacking the elegant pattern or the global effect should be something in your arsenal of play. It should be something that you are prepared to execute. It was never intended to be your only strategy. These are rare events. Treat them accordingly. ... or don't. Ha Ha.

 

Gizmo before you school me or anyone else you'd be well advised to provide some concrete examples of your "global effect" which you've been bandying about ad nauseum for some time.

While you're at it go ahead and explain why you've lost so much money at Roulette that you couldn't afford to play anymore until you borrowed money and then went ahead and lost that as well! So now you are going to school us for a small fee of $3,000.00 for instruction?
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Roulette and Baccarat are NOT the same though each are games of independent trials. The difference is that Baccarat already has a fixed unchangeable "bias" baked into each shoe. Therefore one has, IMO, a greater opportunity to guess the bias based on the well known average outcomes.

You can have the last word. After that I will put you on my ignore list.

Best of luck with your new business!

 

I have illustrated it extensively. Ignore that.

 

I'll have that word. NO you CAN'T guess these supposed "biases." People like you and the rest of these systems players are the reason I want a casino!!

 

jbs,


Nobody is holding you back from buying stocks in one or several casinos .

Invest at your own risk.

 

First, don't make assumptions about other players, i.e., "these system players" ?? Apparently you are assuming broad generalizations about how others gamble. System? What system(s) are you referring? I got no clue what you are talking about and apparently neither do you.

At any rate, I have documented over 4000 live bets with a 53+% win rate. So unless you have something to add other than "NO you CAN'T" I'll not waste my time with you either.

 

Very entertaining . LOL. applause .

 

Hello Jimske,

Nowhere did I state that after PP B that B is more likely. Only that if the shoe produced PP B from the outset, I would bet B. Looking through some of my cards, I can see that there were times I would play P should PP B appear later on somewhere in the shoe.

There is no positive EV in Baccarat, so the only logical conclusion is to do what some of the self proclaimed AP players suggest and that's to improve the accuracy of your predictions. Improving accuracy means someone needs to delve a bit deeper into the game. So things like when you would decide not to bet are important. Any run or streak however short or long is going to end with a loss. So obviously it would be great if you could avoid a lot of those losses. To improve the accuracy of the bets you do make, how can you frame the game differently so that you can see where things are not performing at their expected 50-50 rate and by this I don't mean a Banker run of 7 or 8 or the same for player. I am talking about the bag of trash where it's jumping from one different 'trend' to another. You can do it because I have done it and actually Jimske, you must be already doing it if you are consistently hitting at 53%.

 

Something to really consider is how to cut your bets down. The casinos I play at only deal 6 shoe decks (around 60 hands) I would say that on average I bet around a third of those hands, so give or take around 20 bets per shoe. It's enough.

Look at this shoe.....

B11564232111311214511445

Quite a few runs in there and yet you have not exactly broken the bank if you waited for 2/3 of one side before betting. A few units gain at best flat betting. You would have made 36 bets waiting for a run of 2 before betting. Far too many IMO.

 

So, after some considerable figuring, I'm moving back to 24 numbers from 18 numbers. Yes, jumping around again and proving that I don't have the HG. The stock trading like a casino video has caused me to figure out a way to flip the chances of succeeding in voluminous cycles of stop loss and stop win scenarios. It's based on entering a trade on the data available showing trends that continue upward. The range following the statistical average for that stock. I have worked out a way to duplicate the same activity on a Roulette wheel. I have formulated the balance points and worked them against the odds of winning on each spin. My method is both balanced and favorable to me if I win. It is based on a 50 / 50 chance to succeed. But it too pays off at 2 units if won and 1 unit if lost.

Now, based on my discovery I'm leaving the forums for good. I know I've been pissed off and stormed out of tyhe room before. This is not that. I'm gone, I did not pass away and I did not commit suicide as the roomer going around for gr8player is.

It's been fun. It really has been a blast talking and arguing with all of you.

Mark

 

Gizmo ,


Never say Never Again . Stay and keep on fighting .


ONLY key board jockeys are winners at forums to enhance their EGO.

Read it all in "THE BULL SHIT DAILY ".

 

I don't know all the people well enough, as I've only been around for a couple of months, but I can tell you in the case of many of my friends walking out on things that they do it's only because of two reasons I found.

One is their thing in their crotch is too little for the competition that's coming around and second is they are totally broke.

So dont let that door hit you on your way out!

Imo, scammers have to be on the boards all the time to locate new money for themselves!!!!

 

I see you use Ellis' innovative notation. Good. One way of cutting bets as McVince and company tend to promote is to just be for a decision to repeat or not. One bet. Note repeats dominated chops.

I tend to bet a lot of hands; probably 75% of hands in a shoe or more. Also very common for me to lose 5-7IAR in a shoe (Variance goes both ways). But one has to have a betting style that can overcome such. No I don't spread my bets. I generally use a form of D'Alembert whereby I freeze or reduce my bet size in certain situations. But I still agree with your statements. My opinion for most players is to bet fewer hands.

The shoe above just luckily played into my preferred mechanical selection right out of the gate. Winning 16 gross or 15 units net if I flat bet. I bet 56 hands. Happens; not often. Reason is the runs tended to be longer than average and only 3 2's while the chops went at least 3 except once.

Point is one has to adjust the bet placements to what the shoe is giving whether you bet a lot of hands or a few.

 

We all have to agree that trends is a very individual thing. No matter how you interpret it, it does one thing i.e. to let you make a decision of when to bet and what to bet. Most of the time, trends are sequential patterns that repeats. Trends DO NOT increase your chance of winning. However, by following trends, one can maximize the number of wins and minimize losses to the least i.e one hand. Thats is the sole reason we used trends.

 

While we are at the discussion of trends, let me give away a system of playing Baccarat called "fail-safe Baccarat system"

People claimed that this system was once sold for $3000. Its based on a template of bet selections. I kind of like it because there are a lot of wins in a row. Flat betting could work for this system.

Below is a copy and paste of the entire system.

Here it is.

Please give me your thoughts, and ideas, remember I am not trying to sell anything, just sharing with you a procedure that I have had success with, maybe I should sell it! (just kidding)

1. After 1 bank bet BANK (only exception is #9 below and #10 )

2. After 2 banks bet BANK

3. After 3 banks bet PLAYER.

4 After 4 banks, FLAT bet BANK, and continue betting BANK till the streak ends.

5. After 1 player, bet BANK.

6. After 2 players, bet BANK.

7. After 3 players, no bet

8. After 4 players, FLAT bet PLAYER, and continue betting PLAYER till the streak ends.

9. After 3 or more players, when bank appears, and a SINGLE BANK preceded that 3 or more player run, bet PLAYER, and if you win, SIT OUT next bet.

10. After a run of 5 or players, when bank arrives, bet PLAYER, regardless of what preceded that 5 or more player run.

11. When a 3 step chop appears, EX: PP BPB -you now FLAT bet for it to continue chopping, and continue betting the chop, till it ends.Also see #12 below.

12. If, after 4 or more chops, EX: BB PBPB, and of course you are betting PLAYER, and it goes bank, DO NOT bet bank, as per rule #2 above, instead in this case SIT OUT,It may just be an interruption of the chop, in which case, should player appear you would then bet BANK.Resulting in BB PBP BB PB
The same applies if 2 players show up after a 4 step chop,
EX: PP BPB PP BP, you would of course bet BANK after the 2 players.

13. Betting use a cancellation system, starting with ten ones written down.

14. Any flat bet wins can be used to cancel ONLY NON-ONES in the cancellation chart, any loses do not affect the cancellation chart.



There that is the entire system in 14 rules!

What do you guys think?
Improvements?

I know anyone can come up with a time when this will not work, but do not insult the intelligence of the forum participants, instead, tell us what happens a lot, and how you might solve it, with additional steps!

This to me is the real reason for these forums, to share our ideas, so help me out here!!