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Roulette More on that so called Fallacy.

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by TurboGenius, Jan 4, 2019.

  1. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

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    stop trolling and start testing it for yourself.
    run of a few sessions in rx, you will see what i mean. and you will get the sams results evertime you test.
     
  2. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

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    bago, its not hocus pocus.
    it's just something that must happen, it's due. oh wait, i can't use that word here (due) otherwise i will get shot
    without kidding bago, a number or any location that is performing below it's average, needs to correct itself, it just does.
     
  3. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    It has been tested 15 years ago on the Gambler's Glen forum idiot and it failed the long term test.
     
  4. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

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    it's indeed just logic.
     
  5. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

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    why are you starting to get rude man?
     
  6. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    It's this simple. There are the same number of pockets on the wheel from one spin to the next. So how can the past numbers possibly change the probability of winning on the next series of spins? Is it magic?
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  7. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    Not to mention that noone can know the exact Standard Deviation of any number because the result will be different depending on the sample size analyzed. N°1 can be hot for the player who just sat at the table because it hit 3 times in a row, for the player who analyzed the last 500 spins, n°1 is still in a negative STD because it slept for 450 spins, and for the other player who analyzed the last 5000 spins n°1 is at 0 STD (reached its average 1/37!).
     

  8. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    I ran a simulation of 10K spins only, the consecutive intervals for every number are recorded ("skips" in the txt file attached).
    https://ufile.io/jatln
     
  9. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    Roulette Number 3 : 144 - 77 - 75 - 70
    Roulette Number 4 : 129 - 130 - 67
    Roulette Number 5 : 189 - 67 - 146 - 55
    Roulette Number 6 : 54 - 99 - 53 - 130 - 84
    Roulette Number 7 : 100 - 57 - 209
    Roulette Number 9 : (83 - 161 - 143) (111- 141 - 49) (112 - 78 - 41 - 113)

    And so on... nothing exploitable here. Next
     
  10. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    A last one for Turbo: Number 12 : (156 - 100 - 141 - 98 - 37 - 34) How do you beat this?
     
  11. Benas

    Benas Active Member

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    Till now newer was that some "internet winner" will say to me, ok Ben I will look to your wheel through skype and will say you a numbers which will fall next and you will see that I will guess more than 3 standard deviations than mathematics say.
    Was few which i "forced" to play against mine wheel but they lost...
    Maybe jekhb1976 will be first which prove his words:)?
     
  12. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    Another undue streaks: Number 18 : (239 - 81 - 58)
    Number 24 : (204 - 75 - 157 - 48)
    Number 27: (237 - 186 - 50 - 57)

    So Elvis, you don't seem hot to play your unhit "whatever location" for real Mr CannotLose :D
     
  13. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    shaking_head_breaking_bad.gif
    Turbo,

    It has nothing to do with a winner being due. Again, you're trapped in the gambler's fallacy.

    When the jackpot isn't won, it increases in size. Each time it increases in size, more people than the previous week buy tickets. Consequently record sized jackpots will have a record number of players. That's why you'll sometimes see more than one winner when it's finally won. It's NOT because someone is "due" to hit.

    "The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the mistaken belief that, if something happens more frequently than normal during a given period, it will happen less frequently in the future (or vice versa). In situations where the outcome being observed is truly random and consists of independent trials of a random process, this belief is false. The fallacy can arise in many situations, but is most strongly associated with gambling, where it is common among players."

    "The term "Monte Carlo fallacy" originates from the best known example of the phenomenon, which occurred in the Monte Carlo Casino in 1913.[1]"-source Wiki.

     

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    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  14. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

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    play on.......
    and don't say you can't. you can online. do it, and the results may suprise you.
    you will profit from this, idiot :)
    if you would have played on you would have won all above sessions and profit greatly from it
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019

  15. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

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    x4uP8Dd.gif
    Even when Elvis' hit rate is far below the average, he is winning. OK Elvis OK!. (I have been told to never upset a fool, it can be dangerous).
     

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  16. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

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    bago what you don't understand is that turbo has given his play as an example. but you're too much busy with yourself and spitting on everyone to see that.
    would i play this at my bm? ofcourse not.
    would i play this online? ofcourse not.
    would i play another location expecting the same outcome is less spins? sure i am.
     

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    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
  17. Nathan Detroit

    Nathan Detroit Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    here are lies ,there are damned lies , and there are statistics but those are worst kind of them all . Quote by Benjamin Disraeli Brit. PM.
     
  18. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

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    funny, that i'm one of the few people here on this forum, that know what will happen.
    but most refuced to see.
    there are many things that are for certain in roulette. this is one of them. A number/location will return to it's average point. use this knowledge and a possitive progression and you won't spit ever again.
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
  19. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    jekhb1976,

    As you can obviously tell, we must be terribly biased here, because most of us are saying that you're full of shit.

    Why don't you post your wild claims on the wizardofvegas forum, where you can get some fresh and unbiased opinions?
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019
  20. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    This is for the daydreaming silly squad that believe they can exploit the averages for the numbers.

    hey_diddle_diddle.jpg


    After 30k spins on the double zero wheel, the number 27 has hit 783 times and has a frequency of 1 in 38.31 (basically 1 in 38 and completely random.) Consequently it's losing 1,812 units! Even though the hit frequency is random at 1 in 38.31 it would need another 50.33 hits in order to break even! Surely it will catch back up because it's due, right? Well, let's take a look at the next 30k spins.

    During the next 30k spins the number 27 hit 775 times for a hit frequency of 1 in 38.71. Consequently it's losing an additional 2100 units! It would have required an additional 58.33 hits in order to just break even!

    This means that after 60k spins the number 27 had a hit frequency of 1 in 38.51 (random) but was still 108.66 hits below break even!

    The above demonstrates that even though the hit frequency of a number will drift towards it's long term expectation of 1 in 38, the number of hits required to actually break even will grow larger and larger. This is why it's foolish to chase numbers like Turbo naively does because numbers are never due to "catch back up".

    All of the data listed above was from a real live 00 wheel located on the LV strip.

     

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    Last edited: Jan 5, 2019

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