1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Roulette More on that so called Fallacy.

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by TurboGenius, Jan 4, 2019.

  1. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    so there you have one clue of my playing style, shit what did i do now :)

    a. I only play a number once it shows.
    b. the best number to play is the number wich has shown the least and is thus furthest away from it's average point, this is the best number, the best candidate to play.
    c. once my number(s) have returned to it's average point again, i don't play them anymore. at that pioint there are enough other candidates to play.
     
  2. Mako

    Mako Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2018
    Likes:
    429
    Location:
    Irvine, CA
    That's a great list Eddy, like it.

    For me, albeit in very small testing so far, I'm having trouble getting the randomly played location (or number) to return to it's average point 0 within the total spins for that casino's operating hours that given day (meaning the location didn't have a fast enough return to 0 within say 400 spins to make any MM turn a profit).

    Often it does, and you the effect you're describing is present...and returns a net profit that approximates to say $0.70 per spin (play 200 spins, the location returning to 0 STD created 140u profit). Very cool.

    But occasionally the location just sits in limbo/chop, starting at say -3.00 STD, and 400 spins later still being at -1.50 STD...and that climb not being enough to overcome losses from the journey.

    That's why I'm guessing there's more to the bet selection than you're describing, either intentionally (understandable) or unintentionally (you're glossing over something important that we need to sharpen the BS).

    Thanks for your work in this thread, it's thought provoking and interesting as well. I like the "greens" example best, because we all unconsciously remember green streaks, which lends credibility to your hypothesis. They're gone for ages, then they appear like locusts, and it happens over and over and over. :p
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
    jekhb1976 likes this.
  3. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    Mako,
    i will tell you one little secret.
    I don't play one location. if i did that, i need to dig my own grave.
    do you know why i play more then one location?
    because of the simple fact that one number for example can reach up to bago's 666 spins from hell before it's average point is reached. i don't have the ability to forsee the future, so i make sure that i have my profits before the session drags to long. get my point?
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2019
    TurboGenius and Mako like this.
  4. Mako

    Mako Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2018
    Likes:
    429
    Location:
    Irvine, CA
    Ha, thanks man, was just going to type that..."what if you sit down and the final number takes 400+ spins before reappearing..." :D
     
    jekhb1976 likes this.
  5. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    only two things that will never happen.
    the number that is furtherst behind won't ever be a grand longterm sleeper.
    second, i won't have lost anything, because i wasn't betting on it :)
     
  6. Mako

    Mako Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2018
    Likes:
    429
    Location:
    Irvine, CA
    Very nice. So in terms of the location bet selection, you're looking at multiple locations at once the moment you sit down at the table, and we know you don't use the marquee or spin history prior to that point because TG has made that point several times over the years. It only matters once to him once he begins play.

    Do you have a favorite location thus far? Meaning, in my testing for whatever reason the quads/corners were stronger/more reliable than other options. Likely just random occurrence, but they performed more consistently.

    So if I sit down, monitor all corners (22), and see that after 18 spins two of the corners haven't hit, which is approximately a -1.50 STD at that point for both of them, once one does, I start playing it. Then the other unhit arrives, I would play that as well, simultaneously.

    And of course the more locations you're on, the more that fit the method's qualifications before playing, the less chance of a loss due to an outlier situation.
     
    jekhb1976 likes this.
  7. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    there is more to it, but you are on the right path, keep testing and you will be at the point of no return:)
    i have said too much allready. you need to figure out the rest by yourself.

    hope it helped.
    stay save.
    j.e.
     

  8. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Guys,

    Playing cold numbers that you think are due to catch back up is called "chasing your losses". That hasn't worked since the invention of the game.

    On live wheels, it's actually one way by which you could theoretically actually lose at a rate that exceeds the house edge! The reason is that on live wheels every wheel is biased to some degree. Meaning some numbers may not be hitting at expectation because they could be negatively biased. In short, it's a really dumb idea.
     
  9. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2015
    Likes:
    1,794
    Occupation:
    Self proclaimed Theoretical Philosopher
    Location:
    Near Atlantic City New Jersey
    Strange that it works now when it's applied properly.
    Oh wait, the earth used to be flat too - scientists said so, the church said so, everyone said so.
    Wow - they were wrong.

    And this Einstein talk is a laugh.
    Do you realize his IQ was 160 ? Not to take away from his amazing contributions
    to the world of science - his IQ isn't/wasn't that high.
    James Woods has a IQ of 180 !!!!!!!
    Now if James Woods was on here preaching about roulette everyone would laugh at him
    and quote a made up Einstein quote instead lol.
    Strange.

    Sir No One No One - unless you can show that a average doesn't mean the average
    which we all know is 1 in 37, then you're beating your head against a wall for no reason.

    Random has limits. (you know this - because there's no limit with a biased wheel where you
    win from, "random" on the other hand does have limits. You don't play random, it's not your
    department.
    A cold number can A) Stay cold or B) go hot.
    A hot number can A) Stay hot or B) go cold.
    Since even you agree that in order to profit - the player needs to achieve wins at a better
    rate than what the house pays (35 to 1) then clearly you can see the only (ONLY) option
    from the two examples above.
    But you can't admit to this, we understand. It's been explained in so many ways through
    these pages of this thread but you'll never say it's right - lucky for the readers you
    clearly aren't the one showing people the way to win. So back at it - quote me some
    wikipedia on a Fallacy that is actually a real thing, or some Einstein quote that he never said.
    In the old days before Galileo - you would argue the earth was flat because everyone else
    believed that to be true. At some point you should really consider opening your eyes to what
    the truth is. Then you can stop hunting unicorns and win at any table, in any casino - at
    any time. Just advice - feel free not to take it.
     
    jekhb1976 likes this.
  10. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica

    shaking_head_breaking_bad.gif


    Turbo,

    Unfortunately the house payoff is 35 to 1 but there's 38 pockets on the wheel. This means that if a number hits at expectation, then you're going to lose, on average, about two units every 38 spins over the long run. This means that the longer you play, the farther and farther you will drift away from break even. To learn more check out the wizardofodds.com. The house edge, expectation, and basic probability tutoring can be found there.

    Best of luck, because you're going to need it. :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2019
  11. Buffalowizard

    Buffalowizard Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2019
    Likes:
    10
    Location:
    UK
    Geez talk about goin round in circles. Just lock the thread now boys huh?
     
  12. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Sometimes it takes a while to get through to new players and the 'math challenged'.
     
  13. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2018
    Likes:
    290
    Location:
    Belgium
    Jekhb,

    Do you understand at least by changing the size of your chip value you are not more greedy than before as you keep winning the same number of chips? The only thing that can avoid it is actually the lack of confidence in the system.
     
  14. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    winning the same number of chips :)
    by increasing my betsize, i make sure that when the hits come faster and faster, the chips that were lost in previous spins are compesated at least and making sure that i end up in profit.
     
    Spider likes this.

  15. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    first, i'm not a new player and second, the only thing that you are contributing to the forum and to new players are lies, nothing more. by lies i mean, that you are keep saying that a number is drifting further and further away from it's average point and is never gonna be on his way back. who told you all these nonsense by the way in the first place?
    Did bago whisper it in you're ear?
    again, show us proof, that this is the case, and turbo and i will stop talking about it.
    at least we are trying to let new players see ways how you can do better then 1:37.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2019
  16. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    someone need to wake them up with a cold shower :)
     
  17. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    shame, that we are not playing at the house edge, and that we keep winning more and more because our numbers keep rerurning to their average point. i think you need a new wheel to play on sir, i guess yours is broken if you're numbers are keep drifting further and further way :)
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2019
  18. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    you can give as much advice as you like, but they never gonna listnen. you and i are only fools in their eyes. But hey, what do we know? we just keep winning, so we can't be right can't we.
     
  19. Sharptracker

    Sharptracker Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Apr 12, 2018
    Likes:
    290
    Location:
    Belgium
    Because you feel you have tried to listen?
     
    Nathan Detroit likes this.
  20. Bago

    Bago Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2017
    Likes:
    326
    Location:
    Mars
    Elvis, please start playing on the known online casino and record your screen once a week, it won't be long before you disappear from this message board.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2019

Share This Page