Roulette Outside the BOX

Thumbs up to all contributors!
I am getting lost in numbers.
Who said excel is easy?
Who said getting to a consistent bet is easy?

This formula is for 1 cell only:

I am getting strings of numbers text to numbers, back and forth.
Concatenate, VLOOKUP, behold the mighty random!




Looking forward to complete the excel file.
Ahoy, mates!

 

Okay, Lets`s throw a bit of math in the equation, to show WHY this bet works, or why the probability of success is above that of failure.
Every one heard about the Birthday Paradox:
If there are at least 23 randomly chosen people in a room then the probability that at least two have the same birthday is greater than 0.5 . Equivalently, the Birthday Paradox suggests that if there are 22 randomly chosen people in a room with distinct birthdays and another randomly chosen person is added to the mix then the probability that the last person has the same birthday as one of the other 22 people is greater than 0.5. It is also not difficult to see that the argument may be extended to the case where there are n (>22) randomly chosen people with only 22 distinct birthdays and an extra random person is added to the mix. The Birthday Paradox is also known to have applications in Cryptography for reducing the complexity of cracking a hash function.
Using the Probability theory we can assert that in the game of roulette the probability of distinct outcomes without repetitions decreases
exponentially as the number of spins increase.




AS THE NUMBER SHOW UP, THE PROBABILITY OF A REPEAT WITHIN THE SELECTED NUMBERS IS HIGHER AR THE SPINS GO ON.

We are talking about distinct numbers.

 

Frodo, yes it's easy to see that as the number of spins increase, so does the probability of a repeat increase. The trouble is that this fact does you absolutely no good at the roulette table, because it doesn't say anything about the probability of the next number to hit. I can see Turbo reading this and rolling his eyes ("these guys can't see past the NEXT spin!"). But that's the reality; we can't bet on the outcome of a SERIES of spins, only the next spin. And that probability is fixed. And if we COULD bet on the outcome of a series of spins, the casino would set the payouts so that there was no advantage for us.

 

Started my testing day with a quick run with the above. Spielbank Duisburg spins, single table, single day. 1u flat bets.

Average numbers bet on for the session: 12.21
Expected hit rate (12.21/37): 33%
Actual hit rate: 39%

Sometimes it doesn't have to be complicated, simplicity has its merits...

 

It's painful to watch the level of stupid in this thread.

 

Frodo,

As we've explained to you kids a thousand times, there are more ways for some numbers to hit a few times or more, some twice, some once and some not at all over 38 spins than there is for each number to hit just once. That's all there is to it. Unfortunately you have no way of knowing which numbers will continue hitting and which numbers will stop hitting. Understand? (I seriously doubt you do, but maybe there's someone that does that can explain it to you in way that you'll comprehend.)

 

Be Respectful.

• All members must be polite, civil, and respectful at all times. No exceptions.

 

Sorry Frodo,



But the infection of ignorance is reaching an epidemic level.

 

To get ON TOPIC, Dr Sir

for the European Roulette (37 numbers)
What is the minimum positive integer value of k where it suffices to bet on the k distinct outcomes of the previous C consecutive spins
(where C > k) and expect to get win with probability greater than 1/2 in case there are repetitions of numbers within the last k spins?

Now apply that to a large group of numbers

Good night.

 

Frodo,

The same number of pockets remain on the wheel from one spin to the next, so the probability of a number winning remains the same, regardless of whether or not it has hit before.

 

Dr Sir,

I was asking something else. Never mind. The answer to that question will lead you to complex (and beautiful) mathematical discoveries.
Until further notice, please be on topic and try to argument your point of view.

Not ignorance, but ignorance of ignorance is the death of knowledge.

 

This has happened a lot, first image is a typical run, one of the unhits in the first 37 tracking spins arrived, then hit beyond expectation, enough to hit the 16u bet at spin 78, +885u (1-2-4-8-16-8-4 progression).

Now that's a really good end point, time to reset, etc. But if you kept playing, taking it up to 133 spins, the profit goes to +2163u quickly because a few other unhits also got to the 16u bet and a few hit again after that at the reduced bet levels towards the end of the progression.

When to press and when to reset are coming into view with the more sessions that are played, basically in my particular version of this method if the total bet on the table per spin exceeds 50u, or the total spin count for the session is beyond 120 by the time the first 16u bet hits, pressing doesn't make much sense.

But if it's as it is in this example, where the first 16u number hit early at spin 78, and the total being bet per spin at that time was just 36u, it makes sense to press a bit and see if you can keep it moving.

 

Also, Frodo, the more work you can do in Excel the better, automating this would make the trends easier to identify.

 

Another paradox is that according to Frodo words : everyone has heard of that pradox, and it's in this thread that The system is born!

 

LOL!!!

 

Well, my bad,

Here, you can start with this.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem

It is one of the few mathematical paradoxes that can be used in game combinatorics. It is spot on this topic and not only.
It explains :
1)why it is a good time to bet the zero hits (after Cycle1 ended, 37 spins), only after the they show up first time and
2) why the probability of a repeat on those distinct numbers increases as the session progresses.

Testing will be continued, all i ask is to be on topic.

 

OK, so this is a funny graphic, but my question is if you’re concerned about the person who started this thread going in the wrong direction and you’ve provided your analysis time and again, why keep posting negative comments or insulting notes? I’m not getting that. They play differently than you. Obviously they lose money while you make millions. Is that what bothers you? If so may I suggest that you provide your schedule or your teams schedule for 2019 so others can show up to piggy back your play and make millions with you. Now, that would be worth it’s own topic for sure. I’m thinking something like “millionaires with nothing to do”. All in good fun!!

 

I guess sir no one and his group of misfits have nothing better to do. sad but true

 

Mako, are you still playing all unhits, when they show up, one by one or are you playing them as a group after 37 spins?
furthee more, do you add new ones on spin 74? unhits from cycle 2?

 

Another grail with the birthday paradox:

https://www.gamblingforums.com/threads/a-birthday-paradox-attack-on-roulette.11661/