1. Welcome to the #1 Gambling Community with the best minds across the entire gambling spectrum. REGISTER NOW!
  2. Have a gambling question?

    Post it here and our gambling experts will answer it!
    Dismiss Notice
  3. Discussions in this section are assumed to be EV- as they are outside of the Advantage Play section. For EV+ discussions, please visit the Advantage Play section.
    Dismiss Notice

Roulette The time traveler analogy

Discussion in 'Roulette Forum' started by TurboGenius, Nov 27, 2019.

  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2015
    Likes:
    1,794
    Occupation:
    Self proclaimed Theoretical Philosopher
    Location:
    Near Atlantic City New Jersey
    This is a thought experiment - well, it requires thought.
    (And no, there is no time traveler as you'll see at the end of the post) but bear with me and read along.

    =======================================

    You go to your local casino and have a seat, all ready to begin betting - but where to bet ?
    You've heard that it doesn't matter where you bet, it won't make a difference.
    A guy sits down next to you and says "Hi, I'm from 144 spins in the future"
    And sure enough - somehow he is !

    Well hell - you say "Tell me what numbers to PLAY !!!!! this is going to be easy !!"
    He explains that he can't do that - but he can tell you this -

    "Two of these numbers are going to show 8 times !
    Three of these numbers are going to show 7 times !
    Four of these numbers are going to show 6 times.
    1 number won't show at all - don't bet that one !!!!
    18 numbers aren't going to show enough to make any profit at all, I wouldn't play
    those at all either !"

    And he POOFS and he's gone :(
    (He wasn't really that important, we already know what happens before it happens,
    we just don't know which numbers do what)

    Well, you think to yourself - that's great but that doesn't help me ONE BIT does it ?
    Which number(s) ???????????

    Now, you'll have to use some common sense won't you ?
    You can only win by betting and winning on numbers that appear above 1 in 35 spins
    on average (repeaters).
    You have the info he gave you (although you don't need him, this happens each time you
    have spins thanks to random).

    So the wheel spins and it's #1

    You have to think about "potential".
    You have to think about what you know and what you don't.

    #1 CAN'T be the number that never appeared - correct ? It's happened.
    But it CAN be potentially now one of the hot numbers that he mentioned.
    In one spin you already removed a number from being the sleeper that never shows.
    This ALONE is an advantage. It means one of the others are that number.
    The next spin is #2
    Now you know 2 numbers that can't possibly be the long term sleeper but can only
    either fit into the "below average" set that you don't really want to play, or the
    "better than average" set that you do want to play.
    Next spin - #1 again !!!
    Now you have even more info than you had before, just by the spins coming out.
    #1 is potentially more likely to be one of the hot numbers at the end of this 144 spins.
    Can you say this at 100% accuracy ? No... but you can certainly say it's possible, where
    as before this session started you had no idea whatsoever.

    Do numbers that appear have a better chance of appearing than numbers that haven't ?
    (as in the original comment)
    Well, no.
    But - does a number that appears now become potentially one of the hot numbers ? Yes.
    It's not an even playing field anymore - you have the data showing a number won't appear
    at all, and it can't be one that has appeared already obviously.

    Every spin produces more and more data that fills in the blanks of the final puzzle
    that you already know (thanks to the time traveler in this story) and thanks to the
    data that we know happens every time we play a session of spins.

    So you can't say that #1 at this point (having shown 2 times) is anywhere comparable
    to #36 which hasn't appeared at all to this point.
    If you use this logic you'll of course have NEVER bet on that long term sleeper
    because you would have been playing "repeaters" and would not have lost a penny on
    this number because it never appeared.

    Every cycle of spins that go by make it more and more clear which numbers to avoid (the sleepers)
    and which numbers to play (the repeaters). They are not the same, you don't have the same
    question of where to bet because there are only specific numbers that could be hot and there
    are only the sleepers that are potentially long term no-shows.
    Each spin gives you more and more data to win.

    In a system a long time ago (no one probably remembers) - I suggested "Avoid the Sleepers".
    This was basically to play every number at 1 unit.
    Every spin, remove 1 number that had NOT appeared yet.
    You could start at 36 and work your way to 1, or whatever way you choose to play it.
    Here's a quick run off -

    Every number has 1 unit on it.
    Every time a number with 1 unit on it appears, we make it 2u and remove any of the 1u bets.
    If a 2u bet wins (repeater), we do nothing.
    If a number appears with no bet on it (we previously removed a number that had now appeared) - put 2u on it and remove any of the remaining 1u bets. (we're correcting our error of removing it)

    So after 51 spins I have no numbers left with 1u on them and I'm playing 23 numbers
    which have ALL appeared. I'm NOT playing a single number that hasn't appeared.

    ATS1.png

    Now we can just repeat the process with our nice set of 23 numbers.

    If one appears, it goes to 3u and any 2u number is removed.
    If one appears that isn't bet on, it gets 3u and any 2u number is removed.
    If a 3u number appears, do nothing.

    So after 73 spins I have no numbers left with 2u on them and I'm playing 16 numbers
    which have ALL appeared. I'm still NOT playing a single number that hasn't appeared.

    ATS2.png


    Still we haven't bet on any of the numbers the time
    traveler said not to bet on, even though we didn't know what those numbers were.


    Anyway, before dragging this on forever - we never needed that time traveler,
    the spins are telling us what numbers to play, it's also telling us what numbers NOT
    to play, and every spin that goes by makes this "prediction" more and more
    reliable as numbers become candidates/potentials for each group.

    So yes, a number that has appeared is a better bet than to bet on a number that hasn't
    appeared.

    Thanks for reading - please post the humorous time travel memes and
    head shaking gifs below.
     
  2. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2015
    Likes:
    1,794
    Occupation:
    Self proclaimed Theoretical Philosopher
    Location:
    Near Atlantic City New Jersey
    Any "This is nonsense" posts by the misfits will be met with this image.

    ATS5.png
     
    Spider likes this.
  3. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    Hi Ed,
    First i wanted to say that i completely agree with your above post, it is all clear that avoiding numbers that don't show and numbers that appear on average are the best thing you can do. Repeaters are always the best choice, but......
    If we know what will happen in 144 spins, doesn't mean we will win each and everytime we play, like you told us before is possible, you said you can't lose. That's all great and i cheer for you, lol but what good would it do to know that at spin 144 we will have 4 numbers that will have hit 6 times???? Our best starting point and you have to agree is when a number hits for the 5th time (closest to the finish line that is) correct?
    This way of thinking costed me more then i could ever dreamed of. Like i said i previous post, i know my data from years of testing and somehow i always (well most of the time) was still betting too many numbers to be in profit once i got the hits.
    Starting at a 5th hit numbers doesn't mean there will be too many numbers that hit for the 5th time before you got to 6!
    Sure the numbers that have hit 5 times would always be a better choice to bet on then numbers that have only hit 2,3 or 4 times, because the 5 hits are the ones closest to the finishline, but it doesn't grand you a freeride to cross it in time to make money.
    This piece of information is never explained, and i hope this time around you can guide us further....Otherwise we will be all driving in circles once again, no offense.
    cheers,
    eddy
     
    Rona likes this.
  4. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    Oh one more thing,
    Some will say, well eddy you don't have to bet all the numbers that hit for the 5th time, just make a selection :) well, i thought so too, until i picked the wrong ones that didn't turned to a 6 hit :) so that doesn't work either.
    Like i said before, we have a puzzle with 1000 pieces written on the box, but when when we open it, we only have 500 pieces.
    It's impossible to create the missing 500 pieces by ourselfs, so the puzzle is useless.
    Furthermore, i don't expect a 1+1=2 guide but after all these years following your explenations didn't result in waking up at night in cold sweat thinking, shit, that turbo guy was right all along :). guess it's just me that i still don't see it.
     
  5. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    Here's the problem with Turbo's system.

    1. A number that's just hit twice may suddenly go cold and not hit for a few hundred spins.
    2. A number that hasn't hit, may pop up and become hot.
    3. Because of the normal distribution we know that some numbers will hit more than others over the next series of spins, but we do not have any way of knowing which numbers they will be.
    4. The number of pockets on the wheel determines the probability of a number winning, not the past results.

    down-graph.jpg

    5. Posting graphs of a few spins doesn't prove that a system works, it only proves that you posted a graph. Nothing more. If you believe it does, then the graph above surely proves that Turbo's system will lose.
     
  6. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    The core idea is great, it always has been.
    But i have to agree with you that the main big problem with the roulette game as a whole is not knowing what numbers will perform better in the end regarding the other numbers. Regarding betselection, it's always (in my oppinon) that playing numbers that have appeared a better choice then numbers that didn't appeared at all. When you have a finishline of 5, then playing numbers that have hit 4 times instead of numbers that haven't appeared at all is always the most logic thing to do. Sure a number that haven't hit can run past a number that have hit 4 times and win the race (happend more often then everyone thinks). it isnt's as rare as people think. The change of that happening is always the same as any other probability.
    But....the logic choice is always betting a 4 hit turning to 5 instead of a no show.
    So regarding betselection, yes.
    .i would always bet this way. But it didn't make more money in the end.
    For me personaly up to this point, it's nothing more then making sure you don't need to bet 37 numbers, instead you cherry pick. does it make sure you always win (can be possible, like turbo said) Well, i did test hundreds of approaches regarding repeats and until this day, i haven't found a bet, palying this way that would make sure i always win.
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2019
  7. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    Ed, in short.
    Knowing the fact that we will have atleast 4 numbers that will hit for the six time in 144 spins, how do we make sure that we will always gain some profit? Everyone drags around this question, but i have lost too much money and more during the process to find the awnser, that i will ask this simple question. Trust me, casino's won't close, but i think it's time that after all these years finaly we can all make some money and shut up all the naysayers in the process.
    Do we start betting when a number turns to a five hit? if so how many 5s should be bet?
    should we start sooner? maybe at a 4 hit? delete a number from our list once it becomes a 6, knowing that we will have atleast 3 more hits.
    How do we make sure? please give us hope oh genius one :)
     

  8. Naughty but nice

    Naughty but nice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2019
    Likes:
    229
    Location:
    UK
    Eddy & Rona!!

    Mainly to you Ed!

    If you follow the colours you’ll be seeing blocks of 10 spins. Orange are spins 1-10; Now like you I’ve collected data; I even used Gif-Kings 10’000 star burst spins, it gives on average 1 repeat in the 1st 10 spins. Oh look a repeat! Now if you’d have bet the 1x’s you’d be a winner (Vaddi). But why bet the 1x’s! They have only met expectation.

    Now #11 has the potential to be a hottie as Denzie calls them; it’s gone R1

    So here is a contender. You see on the graph Gif-Kings deepening hole; Reason the non-hit THE SLEEPERS are smashing it. But knowing at 60 spins they’ll be around 29.5 repeats could/should show; why not bet the R1’s?

    You now see 9 #’s have hit; if you have seen previous games you’d know in the next 10 spins the average for the sleepers is 7 hits, so 3 repeats. But it’s only a guide! You can see blue spins 11-20, 9 sleepers hit, and so only 1 repeat. You can see that we are betting a low unit; good too many non-hits, so watch the score!

    On spin 38 we get a win. You can see by the green 31-40 the non-hit have slowed. Winkel’s GUT would show this; to get a crossing the 1x’s needed to hit, which give us R1’s to bet. Now you can increase the units! We have another win.

    The thin line shows I’ve dropped some of the R1’s and betting the R2’s.

    Now idiots like Rona say 60 spins is not enough to test! Rona I’ll take it back; it’s my thoughts for members who ark on about test for millions of spins.

    I do test millions of 60 spin games and know at 60 spins it will more than likely show as 30/60. 30 repeats! Even the great Big Bro Ben said that is a fair assumption.

    upload_2019-11-27_8-47-34.png
    upload_2019-11-27_8-48-25.png
    upload_2019-11-27_8-49-20.png
     
    Rona and jekhb1976 like this.
  9. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    So basicly, with the right MM and betting only the repeats (all of them) we should be a winner 99% of the time at spin 60?
     
  10. jekhb1976

    jekhb1976 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2019
    Likes:
    333
    Location:
    Holland
    0-60
    Everytime a number repeats we bet on them, but we need to figure out at wich point we should raise our bets. Do we do this only when a R1 turns to R2, R3 etc (possitive progression) or raise all R1 at a point during our 60 spin cycle?
     
  11. Smitridel

    Smitridel Active Member

    Joined:
    Oct 3, 2019
    Likes:
    134
    Location:
    Greece

    So just for clarification and experimental reasons let me see if I get this OLD system right.
    You start by betting 36 numbers for 1u each number (so a 36units bet).
    When a number appears of the 1u's you add one and make it 2u when at the same time you remove any one (randomly) that hasnt appeared yet.
    So lets say you start by selecting 36 numbers, 1 unit on each one.

    First number #5. You now increase to 2u this number and remove another (lets say you remove #3 since it hasnt appeared).
    (So you are now betting 35 numbers but again 36 units total - one number has 2 units

    Now #3 appears and you are at -36 units since you removed that randomly.
    Put 2 units on #3 and remove i.e #8 since it hasnt appeared yet.
    And so on..

    Is that correct?
     
  12. Ka2

    Ka2 Active Member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2019
    Likes:
    192
    Location:
    Netherlands
    1.jpg

    Just did a few tests with rx.... used the system few good runs, after every new high I started again...

    Now logically at some point your only betting a few numbers, they need to come out in the last average 8 spins or so...if not it tanks...
     
  13. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2015
    Likes:
    931
    Occupation:
    Shoe Cobbler
    Location:
    Merica
    The core idea is flawed, because roulette is a game of independent trials. The number of pockets determine the odds of winning on a number, not the previous numbers hit.

    If you want to test the system, then flat bet it. Pick numbers at random and compare them to the system and you'll find that there's no difference in the longer term results.

    The whole some numbers will hit more than other numbers is the result of the normal distribution of numbers for a 38 pocket wheel, that unfortunately pays off as though it has only 36 numbers. In order to break even you'll need a smaller distribution of numbers. (36 not 38 of them.)
    down-graph.jpg
     
    Last edited: Nov 27, 2019
  14. Naughty but nice

    Naughty but nice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2019
    Likes:
    229
    Location:
    UK

  15. Naughty but nice

    Naughty but nice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2019
    Likes:
    229
    Location:
    UK
  16. Naughty but nice

    Naughty but nice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2019
    Likes:
    229
    Location:
    UK
  17. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2015
    Likes:
    1,794
    Occupation:
    Self proclaimed Theoretical Philosopher
    Location:
    Near Atlantic City New Jersey
    You obviously can't keep playing less and less numbers - eventually you would be at 1 number.
    No numbers could possibly be hot enough to keep appearing at that rate required, that's why it would
    never go past a few cycles of spins... this is common sense. (should be).
    The obvious unwritten rule to follow would be to stop when you have a small amount of numbers left in play - they would be the hottest of course out of the whole table's worth of numbers.
    And never a losing bet on a sleeper because betting this way would make this impossible.
    If you're playing 4 numbers for example and don't have a win within (37/4) or (38/4) spins - then there's
    no point in dragging it along longer. You should already be in profit anyway before the set of numbers
    you're playing got this small.
     
    Denzie, Spider and Bitrock06 like this.
  18. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2015
    Likes:
    1,794
    Occupation:
    Self proclaimed Theoretical Philosopher
    Location:
    Near Atlantic City New Jersey
    proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fi.postimg.cc%2FprsqGVDH%2FATS5.png

    One is your opinion and the other is results.
    Maybe at some point you can end the preaching from a book "Roulette can't be beaten"
    and actually look into the various ways that work. But that won't happen, there's no memes
    for that.
     
    Spider likes this.
  19. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2015
    Likes:
    1,794
    Occupation:
    Self proclaimed Theoretical Philosopher
    Location:
    Near Atlantic City New Jersey
    Strange, I see a clear point on your chart when you should have reset and stopped playing less and less numbers with more and more units on them.
     
    Bitrock06 and Spider like this.
  20. Naughty but nice

    Naughty but nice Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Aug 14, 2019
    Likes:
    229
    Location:
    UK
    upload_2019-11-27_22-5-12.png

    The shaking head from GIF_KING would say not enough spins; there is if you only work on 40-60 spins.
    upload_2019-11-27_22-7-0.png

    upload_2019-11-27_22-7-48.png

    Learn the non-hit
     

Share This Page