Roulette Undeniable proof for the "repeaters"

Ball somewhere fall - not know where - play random game...
So what is must - predict where and must do that good - think himself how, because usually suggestions - not like

 

Over the years I've seen countless new players like Turbo and Notto come and go. They post their pretend play sessions that demonstrate chasing losses and then posting when they finally hit. Afterwards they say, "See it works!" All the while they choose to ignore the $80,000 losing stretch, and focus on the one hit (A max bet of only $50,000, ) that ends their catastrophic losing streak.

 

Well, no harm in using some logic and common sense.



Here is Table 1 today from Spielbank Wiesbaden. (first 37 spins)

23/37 comprised of 14 no shows, 12 one hits, 11 repeaters = 8x2 and 3 x3.

My question would be why does it make any sense to go for the 3peats when they are so few of them.
Would it not make more sense to find a way to hit those 2peats. After all, there was 11 of those compared to only 3 of the 3peats.

The downside of going for 3peats is that you could be left high and dry with loads of 2's and it would be costly.
Where as you know that you are going to get quite a few 2's.

It seems the fascination or staple choice amongst many down the years was for the 3peat but ask yourself why is it a stronger argument in a lot of people's mind for hitting 3's instead of 2's. After all and in the words of our own 'TurboGenius' 2 has to go to 3 meaning the 2 must certainly come first.

 

What would make more sense would be playing numbers that hit a statistically relevant number of times more frequently than they should over a sizable spin sample that produced a statistically significant chi square. You will not find it on the German Casino website streams because those streams consist of several different wheels that are moved frequently.

 

Something like that would take a lot of dedication and resources IMO. Not to mention a skill level that you would have to build up through time.
Sure, you could say that a lot of us probably spend as much time on strategies and the like. Each to their own I suppose.

 

If we bet even the worst doing number sensibly, it can win eventually and even without getting unbearable losses. Those ingulfed into old school failure MMs can not comprehend it. Understanding what randomness could offer us from the worst to the best is essential. Where ignorance is bliss, it is folly to be wise. Every MM has its own set of limitations. Do not overexpect any to beat one and all cases. Use regression towards mean as a guiding principle with a sensible MM meant for the long run. Since no one seems to work on the long run scenario(at least in public domain), it looks impossible to win while it is not.

 

Regression to the mean is not something that anyone can use in anyway whatsoever to their advantage. That is part of the gambler's fallacy. Numbers/hits are never due to catch up or fall behind.

 

Regression to the mean is a perfect Statistical principal. The words of caution are:
"Regression to the mean is not a natural law. Merely a statistical tendency. And it may take a long time before it happens.”
— Peter Bevelin
But saying it is merely a gambler's fallacy is unfair. In a perfect random game, it has to happen. Problem is, people are reluctant to work anything in the long run. They just want win in a very short playable session and are totally ignorant about how it may help.

 

RTM doesn't teach us to expect a catch up or even out. It merely says that after an extremely skewed sample, further samples are more likely to tend towards mean. Nothing more, nothing less. If someone makes it a gamblers' fallacy, it is his own weakness and ignorance.

 

That doesnt work trust me. After 1000's of spins a number is 100 hits behind. Yet the average for fhat number is still 1:37. This is because of the payout!

 

Payout is set in stone, no need to talk of that or the house edge. Variance(when it is harshly working in negative) doesn't let us win and RTM tells us that variance is temporary always. Unless one knows the correct way to handle the worst probabilities and variance, there is no chance to win in the long run.
Making it simple, if you know that a number will surely hit once in 40 spins and not just in 37, you can easily beat that case with any money management but if it is same for 1000 wins, you are dumb, how to do that. Even if hit rate reaches exact 37, you are not going to win it either flat or with any oldschool ideas. RTM could help there if used cautiously.

 

But most system players use RTM as justification for waiting for virtual losses, which IS gambler's fallacy. RTM says that the expectation for the next bunch of spins is always the 'average'. e.g. you see 30 reds in the last 100 spins - time to bet red? The expectation is for about 50 reds in the next 100 spins, not BECAUSE there have only been 30 in the last 100, but because that's the expectation. The hot number guys will say, no, you should bet black because it's hot! You don't see them using RTM as justification for black staying hot, because that wouldn't make sense (the expectation is still about 50 in the next 100 spins). RTM is always invoked selectively, not consistently, because it's not really understood.

1. last 100 spins showed 30 reds - RTM says next 100 spins will show about 50 reds, so there seems to be an advantage in betting red.
2. last 100 spins showed 70 reds - RTM says next 100 spins will show about 50 reds, so there seems to be NO advantage in betting red, but it seems there IS an advantage betting black.

System players don't see that there is no advantage in either case, even though there appears to be.

 

Misusing RTM is just like using a surgical blade to kill someone than getting him rid of some medical trouble with that. RTM doesn't come from the books of statistics to help you in a casino automatically. You need to comprehend it fully first, understand how to use it to handle and avoid the worst cases and then with a correct money management which could have failed you in superharsh cases, you may expect to win.
To light a bulb, let me ask you something, how likely is it that a single number doesn't show for 300 consecutive spins? How likely is that it hits only 10 times in 3000 spins or only 100 times in 30,000 spins? Those who says anything is possible and randomness is unlimited and a number might hit only 100 times in 30,000 spins could negate RTM totally as useless. Others might understand its use.

 

al,

You still haven't comprehended it I'm afraid. You can't 'use' RTM in any way to help you win, or avoid the worst cases. That's the point I was trying to make in my previous post.

 

That is your own perception merely based upon your experiences. So you seem to believe that a numer may hit only 10 times in 3000 spins?

 

The fact that you ask that question shows your incomprehension. Let's assume that some minimum number of hits is guaranteed in X spins. How do you USE that information in a way which makes an actual difference to your bottom line? Waiting for virtual losses or wins doesn't work, do you admit that?

 

albalaha, the two main features of randomness is you don't know WHEN and you don't know HOW. Otherwise roulette would have be beaten since ages...

 

I truly hope that all the new players coming here, will start to think what roulette is instead of wasting time programming new methods etc.

Roulette is a game with a wheel and a ball, a carpet and beautiful red, black and green numbers.
Nothing more, nothing less.
We have either 37 numbers (european wheel) or 38 numbers (american wheel with a single and a double zero).
Every spin is independant from the last. A random game, where hot and cold numbers don't excist. Every spin every number has the same chance of appearing then any other number on the wheel. Forget vegas flashing marques, dealer changes, time of the day, number apearing more then other numbers, it's all nonsense. just pick a few numbers, stop when you have won some, stop when you lose some, just have fun.

 

Focus on the ball, and the wheel, and ignore the game. That's the key to winning. Focus on components of the wheel, where the ball travels, where it falls, the position of the rotor in relation to the wheel, and how far the ball scatter scatters.

 

There you have it; straight from the unicorn's mouth.
They move the wheels, so how do you DSAA get to bet ?