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TurboGenius Never bet on the "last" of something. (Informational)

Discussion in 'TurboGenius's Forum' started by TurboGenius, Jun 14, 2020.

  1. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    This is a problem that kills bankrolls, over and over - yet it keeps being done.
    Incorporate this information into your methods and you will see an improvement in results.

    What I mean by the "last" of something is exactly what it looks like.

    Let's take the game where Player 1 bets on Dozen #1,
    Player 2 bets on Dozen #2 and Player 3 bets on Dozen #3

    Before the game even begins, I can tell you the outcome. Why ? Because it's how the
    game and random work.

    One player will win on the first spin (excluding the 0/00 of course, they aren't needed to
    explain this)
    One player will win right about on average (around 3 spins) and the last player will take a loss.
    This happens every time and you can calculate it in any way that you'd like to.
    Even in a perfect world where all 3 dozens show in 3 straight spins.

    The player who wins first will win 2 units
    The player who wins next would win 1 unit.
    The last player to win would just break even.

    And this is in a perfect world, where all 3 appear every 3 spins.
    Sadly, that isn't how it works.

    untitled.png

    So without the game even beginning, I can tell you that 1 player will make a profit,
    1 player will break even, and the last player will lose.
    How the dozens appear isn't relevant, the "last" to appear will never appear
    on average at a rate that will return a profit.

    That is why betting on "sleepers" is dangerous. (Betting on them once they appear is not).

    Now with this in mind, ("law of 3rd" things that some people refuse to believe in) -
    we can assume that 2/3 of the numbers on the table will appear in a cycle of spins.
    Of what's left - a few of them or most certainly 1 of them is possibly 200+ spins away
    from appearing. So why bet on it ? Why would anyone have ever bet on it ?

    This logically reduces to - never bet on a number that hasn't appeared yet.
    Which also supports the "repeaters" methods and why they work over cold/sleeper ones.

    Here is a practical example, your results may vary.

    In example #1, I will play all 3 dozens and remove the winner until all 3 have appeared.

    In example #2, I will play all 3 dozens and stop when 2 of the 3 have appeared.
    I will then restart and bet the 2 dozens that DID appear, and avoid the last dozen which
    is the potential sleeper. (reference "Avoid the sleeper" system from the past)
    Now of course, when 1 of the 2 wins - I have 1 location left being bet on, and that would go against
    what I just pointed out. So any win results in a reset.

    If you look at the chart above - you will see how 10-15 in a row without a win on the
    "last" spot would destroy a bankroll. We can avoid this.


    Example #1 -

    untitled2.png

    The Red average bankroll line is around -100 (or -1 unit)
    In total there weren't many sessions since waiting for the last dozen to appear takes time.
    96 units were placed in total.

    Example #2 -

    untitled3.png

    The Red average bankroll line is around +250 (or +2.5 units) compared to -1 unit.
    In total there were many more sessions played compared to the first example.
    148 units were placed in total compared to 96 units in Example #1

    These were the same numbers.

    So your own testing and results will tell you the same thing -
    Never continue to bet until the "last" of something wins. It's a 100% way to lose.
    Once you have identified this cold/sleeper bet, avoid it - once it appears you can feel free
    to add it back into the mix - it more than likely won't be the same long term sleeper again
    depending on the bet location. But that's for another thread and involves non-repeating
    rare patterns. Because..... once you know what NOT going to happen, you can certainly predict
    what IS going to happen.

    Thanks for reading and have a nice day.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2020
  2. Wolfie

    Wolfie New Member

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    So much wisdom from this man, and yet most of it will go overlooked or thought of as fabrication by many who don't ever bother putting it all together
     
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  3. Punkcity

    Punkcity Well-Known Member

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    Thank god for that otherwise we all have to get real jobs, You can lead a horse to water but you cant make them drink.
    Cheers
     
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  4. Wolfie

    Wolfie New Member

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    Well said, can't wait to visit Aussie:)
     
  5. Platton

    Platton Active Member

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    Yep. What I understand now is just this moment. How identified cold/sleeper bet?! Its all what is need.
    Hope it really will be continue for another thread. Maybe its will help me for understanding...
     
  6. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    I wonder what happened to this thread.
     
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  7. jbs

    jbs Well-Known Member

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    I have a better idea. Never listen to Turbogenius!
     

  8. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    I've been saying basically the same thing. Once you know when not to bet, you will know when you should bet and have a better chance of winning. This is the one thing that almost everybody lacks in a casino, they have no idea when not to throw their money away. They just put it out there and hope for the best.
     
  9. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    And yet here you are, as always - reading every word I write.
    Thanks.

    This thread is from 18 months ago and shows the horse race analogy at work.
    (for anyone just reading it for the first time).
    The naysayers can jump in and say that it's nonsense but as shown above
    the lead horse wins on spin 1 on average - the last horse on spin 7
    on a bet that has 1 in 3 odds of appearing.
    It's not complex math to see where to bet and where not to bet.
    Extended to multiple laps and adding horses only magnifies the accuracy of predictions.
    But as jBS said - no need to listen to me.
     
  10. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Why people naively believe that past spins somehow influence future spins is beyond me. The gambler's fallacy is alive and well.
     
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  11. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    For the 100th time they do not and cannot have any influence on future outcomes. That's impossible. They are randomly independent of each other. What past spins have an influence on is your decision on where to bet because you see patterns and trends that don't really exist in reality but your brain see's them as patterns and trends and as such you can exploit them. Why is this so hard to understand.
     
  12. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Influence .. no one said anything about 'influence'.

    If I walk in a volcanic area I am more likely to find sulphur among other things, in the steps flat grass among other things. Maybe not the best of the examples .. but as a territory forms itself ...

    @turbo .. do you intend to elaborate further / present the 'lost' thread .. Just by the name of it I think in itself is of essence, for those times that allegedly doesn't work 100%.
     
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  13. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Look at the most common pattern of all, the chop. Red and black or Player and Banker, people exploit this pattern successfully all the time. In baccarat they wait for it and jump on it with both feet. It can go on for 12 or 15 hands and every single person at the table will be betting on it. Sure it can end early but it can also go on for a long time. Either way by following it you're only going to lose once. What makes you think that if there is this one common obvious pattern that people take advantage of that there isn't others. Lots and lots of others. The past outcomes are not influencing future outcomes but they can influence where you successfully place your bet.
     
  14. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Because, like ufpro.com slogan states, 'limits are minset' -- as in mind is set.

    Eg. you might have all your life experienced the high humidity in cold places & simply cannot see otherwise, humidity attached with cold, set.
    Then you go to a territory like a kingdom Norway or perhaps there's some equivalent to it in Canada, where the humidity is pretty much non-existent. Then tent in the middle of winter at -40°C or same F you might wake up after all-night raining coupled with the breathing condensation, with sleeping bag wet through & through with a couple of liters of liquid intentionally barred away splashing on the tent side .. & once getting out in 5 min at -40° everything crisp dry. Liters of it. Fucking eerie ..

    It definitely unsets the mind enabling to perceive & see other possibilities.

    To conclude once you 'learn' =train your eyes to see in one way, & reafirming the hold along the way, its very hard to perceive anything different or even in contrary.

    Again, no 'influence'.

    Not even pockets determine where the ball will stop over the next batch of spins, they only outline the possibilities; the distributions (& trends + their point of forming, assembling, & that cohesion falling apart) that actually forms is defined & determined by other forces, don;t wanna get too esoteric here, which (must≈have to) work within the constraints of physical laws, similar to random that works within its dynamic constraints.
     
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  15. TurboGenius

    TurboGenius Well-Known Member Founding Member

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    Yes. I'll try to post it by tomorrow. I had gotten off-track and forgotten about making the thread about patterns.
    Cheers.
     
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  16. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    Caleb did in the post above mine. Math people constantly bring up influence like it's some kind of valid argument. Nobody ever seriously said or implied that past spins have any influence over future outcomes. Yet the math people act like we say it all the time. Why don't they understand that there are more kinds of influence then just the physical kind.
     
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2021
  17. Duurrrr

    Duurrrr New Member

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    @TurboGenius This is based upon my interpretation of your horse run theory.

    https://easyupload.io/t89q80

    Notes:
    • Pick 12 different random EC patterns from the Patterns tab and input them 1-12. Input them each round.
    • Bet based upon what is highlighted in green.
    • Input winning number into the number column.
    • Input manually winnings per round.
    • Stop at 4 spins or get a virtual 6 spin loss then continue for 4-5 rounds then take another virtual loss.
     
  18. thereddiamanthe

    thereddiamanthe Well-Known Member

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    Yes, he knows I was referring to him.
     
  19. Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone

    Dr. Sir Anyone Anyone Well-Known Member Lineage to Founders

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    Spike,

    It's called logic, and sometimes it eludes some system junkies. The number of pockets determine the probability of winning, consequently past spins/imbalances don't change the odds of winning on the next spin. In short past spins don't increase your ability to predict what's likely to hit next.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2021
  20. SPIKE

    SPIKE Well-Known Member

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    They don't? Then what have I been doing for the last 17 years, twiddling my thumbs? Of course past outcomes can give you clues to the next outcome if you know how to read them correctly. You don't know how so you just assume it can't be done. So you make blanket declarative statements from your limited point of view and think it's the gospel truth. It's not.
    When I'm on the freeway in the daytime and a car is coming from the other direction and it has its windshield wipers on and its headlights on I can make an educated guess that there's weather up ahead. That car is completely random it has no physical impact on my life at all. But I can get clues from it that effect my decisions. You can do the same thing in roulette if you know what to look for.
     

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