Baccarat Ellis Davis Clifton & S40 & NOR

LOL. Take solace in the fact that you are if not the smartest than one of the smartest guys on the Forum. Let me TRY to explain.

There's only three things that happen in the game of Baccarat and they are called Triplets. 1's, 2's and 3÷'s. They can form in any combination.

pp bbbbbb p BB..... is a triplet. A 2, a 3+ and a 1. Put those in any combination and you have a triplet. Let's call those three things elements or components. We could have pbpbp bb pppppp+..... or pppppppp bb p BBB..... See it? 231, 123, 321. So those are the only three combinations that can exist in the game. Anytime we see any two of these components we know it must end with the third missing component sometime and when it does we have a triplet. So we know the future we just don't know when the triplet will occur. So what we're going to do is bet against the triplets to occurr.

We can wait for "none" or one or two elements to start and then bet against a triplet appearing. Let's take none first. That means no matter what happens we bet for an opposite or a chop.

So let's say the first decision of the game is player. We bet bank and lose because it's another player.. We are betting against a triplet forming and already lost 1 bet. If a triplet forms in any combination we've lost three bets. We have pp. Work it out. The pp start could end up being 231 or 321 or 213 and we will lose 2 more bets for LLL. But if we bet AGAINST the triplet forming we will either get L W ( don't forget we lost the first bet) or LLW.

In the above scenario we started betting for a chop or for a single. Doing it that way means we do risk losing three in a row maximum. I think Sputnik abandoned that start up so let's say we wait for one component to confirm. Doesn't matter which one. 3+x or 2x or 1xx. We have a first component and now bet AGAINST the triplet forming. If it does form we LL maximum.

Of course anytime we have a win we stop and wait for another entry. So we could choose which of the above we wanted to risk and play some sort of progression against a scenario whereby we can only lose two in a row or three in a row.

Let's take it one step further and I think this is where he ended up. Suppose we waited for a component of 2 and the beginning of the next component going 2. So we have ppbb or bbpp. Now we're going to bet against the triplet. The only way we lose two in a row now is for there to be a 3 plus and a 1 next in either scenario. The singles are gone. On a win we stop and wait. It also gives us a defined entry point - waiting for ppbb or bbpp.

I believe in his testing he decided on waiting for bbpp and his next bet is b. If a p comes we get a L then wait and bet next b to repeat. So W or LW or LL only possible combinations.

Cheers

 

sounds very familiar to me...1s 2s 3s.....
lol

as.

 

Jimske I am not the smartest guy - apologies if I made anyone think I brag or show any other improper charismatics.
Is just my opinion and creation to tackle even money.

And I respect you Jimske for your knowledge and you always been nice to me.

Cheers

 

I think we all learn when we enter the conversation and try to be constructive. It makes you think about your own game and other's ideas as well. So it doesn't matter so much if we get something wrong or don't even fully understand something 100%. It's all part of the big melting pot of ideas and I find you always go back to suggestions/ideas when you need something somewhere down the line.

 

This has all been enlightening. I have tons of respect for the three of you (Eugene Sputnik and jimske). I am just confused about there only being three combinations of 231, 123 and 321. Are these arbitrary? Or could it be 123 213 231 132 312 321? What about the others that could pop up? 212?

Using the three you suggested jimske simplifies it and gives you a goal to beat. I guess I missed a step in there somewhere. Sorry for any thick headed ness I am bringing to this thread.

 

cps10 - let's say you start charting and get pp B pp BB p B p BB then you know you have singles and a series of two.
Now you have a quality of certain events, a sequence with singles and a series of two.

Now you wait until the sequence end, stop, and get a series of three or higher.

pp B pp BB p B p BB pppp

Now there is three things that can happen.

1) You get singles and a series of three and higher (we can name them 1&3 or 13)
2) You get series of two and a series of three and higher (we can name them 2&3 or 23)
3) You get one of each one, triplet pppp B pp (we can name them 312) "Triplet"

Now instead of writing down Player & Banker results, you write down the quality for each sequence.
Then you look at the random flow from above.

You might ask why you should do that.
Well, you can see seven sequences follow each other where you have singles among them all.

For example, if we have 21 and 31 then next you will get 2 to end 31 sequences.
Then a good idea is to bet single and two's.
Now, if you win you have 21 31 21 and then it will end with 3 and you play 31.
The main connector is the singles that are part of both past historical stats and future stats.

You can choose when to enter and choose your own triggers.
This is a way to read randomness based upon Spuntik's March.

My opinion is that Ellis had to read randomness with similar ways to achieve 40 wins that become S40.
And I am referring to how historical stats are part of the future.

Here is an RNG sampel
Let's say you ignore triplets, just one example, then you get winning five sequences in a row.
We never know for how long each bias sequence last, but we know there is at least one even repeating or a minimum bias is three outcomes.


31
213
21
31
21
31
21
31
21

Hope this helps

 

Thanks Sputnik! I always appreciate your willingness to help.

 

Let's see in the crystal ball where each attempt holds two bets to catch a continuous bias that has been present in the past.

Real Baccarat Shoes

MoSun JFM 1098

BppBppBpBppBppB - Here we have singles and a series of two and we continue to observe
pppBpppppBBBp - Here we have singles and a series of three and higher, next we bet that singles and series of two will strike
BBppBBppp - LWLWLWLL - We lost the bias sequence and end up with series of two and a series of three and higher
BBpBBBBBB - Now we can hold our bets and make more observations for the next prediction
pBBpB
ppppBBBpBBBpB


The following two shoes with two ways to observe and make a decision or estimation

MoSun JFM 1099

pBppBpBBpBB - Here we have singles and a series of two, we continue to observe
pppBpp - One triplet and no present bias continue to observe or play singles and series of two, we play
BpBpBBBpBBBpppppp - WWWLL - We lose our prediction and was only part correct
BppBpBp
BBBpBpppBpppBp
BBppBpBp

Moun JFM 1099 Same as above but with different decision making below ...

pBppBpBBpBB - Here we have singles and a series of two, we continue to observe
pppBpp - One triplet and no present bias continue to observe
BpBpBBBpBBBpppppp - Single and series of three - ignore triplet and bet single and series of two next
BppBpBp - LWWWWLL - Nex bet singles and series of three and higher
BBBpBpppBpppBp - LWWWLWWLWWWLL - Next, bet singles and series of two
BBppBpBp - LWLWWWW

In the last example, you can see five sequences that are connected with singles and you win three bias sequences after each other.

LWWWWLL - LWWWLWWLWWWLL - LWLWWWW

Cheers Patrik From Sweden

 

Yes, zig-zag was number one and that goes back over 26 yrs ago.

Like some of us …. who remember the many systems of E. Clifton Davis.

E. Clifton Davis was no stranger to gambling… author of NBJ –New Blackjack and WCB –World Class Blackjack,

His baccarat manual was put out in 1994 called “ECD Bac” A winning Baccarat Formula. The manual delved into… a history of Baccarat, the math, trends, how the game is played, and a couple of systems. Shortly thereafter he introduced several more systems.

My experience with some of these earlier systems … met the same faith … shortfalls and, I abandoned his followings, and went back to Blackjack.

From the words of other followers of E. Clifton Davis … it seems like I didn’t miss much.

 

I will share a video with even money and five sessions - should be self-explanatory.

+12 flat betting and -3 unit loss.

31
231
21
31

+3 units

21
312
21
312
21
312
21
31
231
21

+2 units

21
31
21
31

+5 units

32
31
21
31
32
31

+2 units

31
23
123
21
31
213

-3 units

 

Is that +12 in one shoe or 5 shoes? 2.4 units per shoe?

 

It depends - I post along with my development - will study the swarms of sequences and make some more conclusions.
There are several ways to make decisions and push for more or being conservative.

Cheers

 

I know Ellis very well. Back in around 2017 I had attended two of his seminar help in Las Vegas. At the time Ellis had split with BTC on his own. The first one was about only three or four people attending including me, if I remember correctly this seminar was about one of the Ellis system DvM. After the seminar, the others came from out of state left. Ellis stayed in Vegas for a few days. At that time, I was a poker player living in Vegas, I could have brought one guess to casinos diamond lounge and as well I have plenty comp for food and drinks. So in the rest few days’ treat Ellis with my casinos comps and accompany with him so I know how exactly how he play and how he was doing. As probably many others after teaching and play for twenty years Ellis is still playing Red and Green. I would have seen him play many times, his average bet probably around $25 and below. The second seminar was about a couple months later when Ellis finally finished his “Final Words”. So in this brochure it’s like an upgrade version of all his previous systems. this time probably around thirty people attended. I believe that some other people may have brought the FW but were not able to came to the similar. for $1500 each I believe Ellis probably had sold around 40~50 copies at least? Have to say he’s a very good system seller. If you ask me for now I probably won’t even have paid $15 for it. I would rather have spent that $15-dollar on a wonton noodle soup in Chinatown. but hey that was a few years ago at that time I didn’t really know much about baccarat. I wasn't really upset that much about paid for the system. but one thing that really upset me is at the time I had paid $300 for the one-year access of Ellis forum (No BTC it was later Ellis found a Canadian Guy Dean set up another forum name Casino Club Forum). So that forum das no useful content and was mostly dead, so I paid and after one month I never logged on to the forum again and after one year I found out I was auto recruitment bill for another $300 by PayPal. I know it’s my fault as I didn’t even know by default mostly all PayPal payment settings are recruiting and I didn’t know I have to cancel the recruiting payment manually by myself. So I contacted Dean and Ellis even though your systems were unless to me but I didn’t say a bad words or complain so far. but that $300 for the forum one-year subscription I ask them kindly to give me a refund because it was a totally a mistake that I really wasn't aware of. and of course they never responded and did not give refund.

So, since ECD was a remarkable name in the baccarat community, I just telling a little my part of story that I know about him.

By the way, My English is not very well, so please forgive me if this thread is not writing very well.

 

The first time I join BTC was around 2016. Norm has pass away and papajoe no longer active in the forum. But I found all their old post and read all of them many times, so much value information in those posts. On one of papajoe’s thread, there was is picture papajoe and Norm together took in MGM Vegas. So even I haven’t seen them in person but saw their picture. The other BTC members I’ve met many of them. Because between 2016-2019 Keith had arranged many baccarat craw play sessions during the time he visited Vegas. Since I live in Vegas so I joined a couple time of those play sessions.
It was a good time when all those true masters lake OZ, W2F and CT active and sharing their success in the forum.

 

For a guy who claims he hasn’t had a losing day in 30 years, and who masterminded a plan to get to a million dollars in 3 weeks, he hasn’t gotten past red and green chips.
To add insult to I injury, he used to take his students ideas and make them his own. Then sell them.

 

Dean was a complete fraud and crook. He is ALWAYS broke and looking to get his hands on other people's money. Plus, he is the worst baccarat player I have EVER seen. Not surprised he stole the $300 from you. There are a couple guys who will SERIOUSLY break his legs if he ever ventures south of the Canadian border again.

 

100% correct. Forum a complete waste after Keith kicked them all out.

 

This is my solution that I consider much better than NOR.
The difference is that I use the core bias, so I don't force my bets to catch the events, they come naturally.

Here is a sample,

231 W
233 W
211 L
333 W
233 W
322 W
321 W
321 W
213 L
312 LW
211 L
231 W
311 L
231 W
322 W
211 L
311 LW
312 L
231 W
231 W
331 W
211 L
333 W
221 W
333 W
311 L
222 W
231 W

 

Greetings, I've been around the forums for a few years started with the BS forum . Ellis open my eyes to consider tbl and otb4l and I developed my current style of play taking this foundation to another level. I had thought these methods were around for many years like other methods. And, I also use the vertical scorecard just mainly out of simplicity. So what has happened to Ellis for those in the know?

 

A member of 'Craps Forum' who was an EDC student, initially praised him. He even posted a long letter to the forum written by Clifton. After spending a year with EDC and playing with him, he asked that the thread be deleted and posted this:

HOW DO I DELETE THIS THREAD I AM NO LONGER PLAYING WITH ELLIS WE PLAYED OVER 5000 HANDS WITH ONLINE BACCARAT AND HE HAS NO PLAYER ADVANTAGE.

HIS WIN RATIO IS 50 PERCENT JUST LIKE ITS SUPPOSED TO BE IN A 50 50 GAME LIKE BACCARAT SO IN REALITY HE HAS NO EDGE SO TO SPEAK.

IN A 50 50 GAME YOU SHOULD BE ABLE OVER THE LONG TERM TO WIN 50 PERCENT JUST BY LUCK.

You can see the thread by entering 'Ellis Davis Clifton' in the forum search box.